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This paper proposes that idiosyncratic firm-level shocks can explain an important part of aggregate movements and provide a microfoundation for aggregate shocks. Existing research has focused on using aggregate shocks to explain business cycles, arguing that individual firm shocks average out in the aggregate. I show that this argument breaks down if the distribution of firm sizes is fat-tailed, as documented empirically. The idiosyncratic movements of the largest 100 firms in the United States appear to explain about one-third of variations in output growth. This \"granular\" hypothesis suggests new directions for macroeconomic research, in particular that macroeconomic questions can be clarified by looking at the behavior of large firms. This paper's ideas and analytical results may also be useful for thinking about the fluctuations of other economic aggregates, such as exports or the trade balance.

This study demonstrates that the interactions of firm-level indivisible investments give rise to aggregate fluctuations without aggregate exogenous shocks. When investments are indivisible, aggregate capital is determined by the number of firms that invest. I develop a method to derive the closed-form distribution of the number of investing firms when each firm's initial capital level varies stochastically. This method shows that idiosyncratic shocks may lead to non-vanishing aggregate fluctuations when the number of firms tends to infinity. I incorporate this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model with indivisible investment and predetermined goods prices. The model features no aggregate exogenous shocks, and the fluctuation is driven by idiosyncratic productivity shocks. Numerical simulations show that the model generates aggregate fluctuations comparable to the business cycles in magnitude and correlation structure under standard calibration.

This paper uses the information contained in the joint dynamics of individuals' labor earnings and consumption-choice decisions to quantify both the amount of income risk that individuals face and the extent to which they have access to informal insurance against this risk. We accomplish this task by using indirect inference to estimate a structural consumption-savings model, in which individuals both learn about the nature of their income process and partly insure shocks via informal mechanisms. In this framework, we estimate (i) the degree of partial insurance, (ii) the extent of systematic differences in income growth rates, (iii) the precision with which individuals know their own income growth rates when they begin their working lives, (iv) the persistence of typical labor income shocks, (v) the tightness of borrowing constraints, and (vi) the amount of measurement error in the data. In implementing indirect inference, we find that an auxiliary model that approximates the true structural equations of the model (which are not estimable) works very well, with negligible small sample bias. The main substantive findings are that income shocks are moderately persistent, systematic differences in income growth rates are large, individuals have substantial amounts of information about their income growth rates, and about one-half of income shocks are smoothed via partial insurance. Putting these findings together, the amount of uninsurable lifetime income risk that individuals perceive is substantially smaller than what is typically assumed in calibrated macroeconomic models with incomplete markets.

While economists in the past tended to assume that individual preferences, including risk preferences, are stable over time, a recent literature has developed and indicates that risk preferences respond to shocks, with mixed evidence on the direction of the responses. This paper utilizes a natural experiment with covariate (drought) and idiosyncratic shocks in combination with an independent field risk experiment. The risk experiment uses a Certainty Equivalent-Multiple Choice List approach and is played 1–2 years after the subjects were (to a varying degree) exposed to a covariate drought shock or idiosyncratic shocks for a sample of resource-poor young adults living in a risky semi-arid rural environment in Sub-Saharan Africa. The experimental approach facilitates a comprehensive assessment of shock effects on experimental risk premiums for risky prospects with varying probabilities of good and bad outcomes. The experiment also facilitates the estimation of the utility curvature in an Expected Utility (EU) model and, alternatively, separate estimation of probability weighting and utility curvature in three different Rank Dependent Utility models with a two-parameter Prelec probability weighting function. Our study is the first to comprehensively test the theoretical predictions of Gollier and Pratt (Econom J Econom Soc 64:1109–1123, 1996) versus Quiggin (Econ Theor 22(3):607–611, 2003). Gollier and Pratt (1996) build on EU theory and state that an increase in background risk will make subjects more risk averse while Quiggin (2003) states that an increase in background risk can enhance risk-taking in certain types of non-EU models. We find strong evidence that such non-EU preferences dominate in our sample.

We examine the roles of land and labor diversification in mitigating the effects of covariate and idiosyncratic shocks in the two middle-income countries Thailand and Vietnam. We use an unbalanced panel dataset of rural households obtained from five survey waves during 2007–2016 (9291 households for Thailand and 9255 households for Vietnam). We employ the System-Generalized Method of Moments estimators to control for endogeneity. Our study finds that (i) rural households in both countries are able to maintain per capita consumption in the face of idiosyncratic shocks but not covariate shocks; (ii) labor diversification in Thailand and land diversification in Vietnam are used as ex-post coping strategies against covariate shocks but their shock-mitigating roles are insignificant; and (iii) land diversification in Thailand and labor diversification in Vietnam are helpful in improving per capita consumption when households face covariate shocks. Our findings suggest that facilitating access to credit, enhancing farm mechanization, and improving road quality in Thailand as well as promoting the development of local rural nonfarm sectors in Vietnam would benefit rural households in dealing with covariate shocks.

The study of the link between production, measured in gross domestic product and CO 2 emissions, is a topic under intense research. Carbon emissions are moving together with economic shocks (high synchronicity), particularly at troughs and peaks of a business cycle. This research investigates the influence of economic shocks to carbon emissions. Previous studies do not provide a direct empirical evidence on the impact of economic shocks to carbon emissions that are available. We employ structural vector autoregression to explore the impact of economic shocks on carbon emissions in 20 advanced economies from 1870 to 2016. Our empirical results prove a strong, statistically significant connection between emissions and output with a coefficient of elasticity > 1. We identify a strong empirical link using panel structural vector autoregression between carbon emissions and real GDP growth per capita. Up to 40% of the fluctuations in CO 2 emissions is explained by combined economic factors (output, population, oil prices, stock exchange). The findings further indicate that carbon emission is determined by energy policy (energy intensity, carbon intensity, relative costs of renewable energy). Our findings contribute to energy policy management, energy, and business cycle research to inspire novel research on energy cycles.

This paper focuses on default correlation modelling and computation of bilateral credit valuation adjustment (BCVA) of credit default swap (CDS) with periodic premium payments. Under the doubly stochastic framework, we model the default times by considering the systemic and idiosyncratic risks, where the common shocks and the idiosyncratic shocks are applied to represent systemic risk and idiosyncratic risks respectively. Under our model setup, simultaneous defaults are allowed and the correlation among idiosyncratic risks is induced by copula. We develop a semi-analytical formula for the BCVA of the CDS, which enables us to compute the adjustments from several default scenarios efficiently. Our numerical results show that the contribution from the systemic risk on the BCVA of the CDS is essential, and the impact from the correlation among idiosyncratic risks cannot be ignored by comparing with the influence from the systemic risk.

The objective of this research is to present a qualitative methodology for the empirical investigation of enterprises’ responses to economic shocks. Annual balance sheets and income statements of nearly 26,000 Hungarian small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the production sector have been examined. A data-driven resilience metric is introduced, based on annual sales growth fluctuations in response to idiosyncratic economic disturbances. Accordingly, Logistic Regression and Random Forest classification of company-year observations have been conducted. Non-parametric statistical tests based on pair-matching suggest that while resilience against economic downturns is critical for short-term survival, it does not necessarily translate to any enhanced long-term development or prosperity. This study demonstrates that companies exposed to economic setbacks tend to lag behind compared to control pairs and illuminate the aftermath of resilient shock reactions at the population level. Our findings suggest that enterprises that have experienced an economic shock should be considered vulnerable and monitored regardless of their shock reaction history as part of a sustainable national economic strategy to foster overall competitiveness and productivity and maintain supply chains.

A part of the financial literature has attempted to explain idiosyncratic asset shocks through investor behavior in response to company news and events. As a result, there has been an increase in the development of different investor sentiment measurements. This paper analyses whether the Bloomberg investor sentiment index has a causal relationship with the abnormal returns and volume shocks of major European Union (EU) financial companies through a sample of 85 financial institutions over 4 years (2014–2018) on a daily basis. The i.i.d. shocks are obtained from a factorial asset pricing model and ARMA-GARCH-type process; then we checked whether there is both individual and joint causality between the standardized residuals. The results show that the explanatory capacity of the shocks of the firm Bloomberg sentiment index is low, although there is empirical evidence that the effects correspond more to the situation of the financial subsector (banks, real estate, financial services and insurance) than to the company itself, with which we conclude that the sentiment index analyzed reflects a sectorial effect more than individual one.

Exposure to risk may be seen as one of the many dimensions of poverty. Household exposure to risk consequent upon different types of shocks often leads to undesirable welfare outcomes. A shock can push an already income-poor household further into poverty or drive a non-poor household below the income poverty line. Risk appears to be one of the major challenges many households face in developing economies especially in the Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, these issues have become central in the policy agenda not only in these countries but also in the international multilateral institutions. This study examines the exposure to risks in urban and rural areas and its effect on household vulnerability to poverty in Nigeria. The study applied the framework that computes vulnerability as expected poverty on the Nigeria General Household Survey for 2015 and the cross-sectional data and three-stage feasible generalized least squares analysis were employed. Findings show that exposure to risks such as job loss, business failure, harvest failure, livestock death, dwelling demolition, increase and decrease in input and output prices, and other similar risks significantly drive households into poverty but differ across households in rural and urban areas, both in characteristics and regions. These findings suggest that social safety nets should be designed to take care of not only the current poor households but also the non-poor households who are likely to be vulnerable in the future.