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This book takes both a global as well as a local perspective in assessing the impacts of climate change on the economy, agricultural sector, and households in three of the MENA countries; Syria, Tunisia and Yemen. The major channels of impact for global climate change are through changing world food (and energy) prices, especially since all the countries under analysis are or have become net importers of oil and petroleum products and many food commodities in recent years. The impacts of local climate change decrease crop yields in the longer run and through them, productivity in the agricultural sector and all the implications this may have on both, the livelihoods of those dependent on the sector as well as the rest of the economy. The analysis also covered what happens when both global and local climate changes work simultaneously for each country. Findings show that in all three countries the effects of climate change are negative for people and the economy-GDP falls and livelihoods suffer. Furthermore, the prevalence of extreme variations in climate-such as the droughts affecting Syria and the floods impacting Yemen-draws attention to the potentially significant drawbacks that are likely to not only affect any strides towards economic growth and development, but may also reverse such strides if appropriate policies are not in place to weather this storm. The analyses in this book apply CGE models.

Pakistan is home to a wide range of geographical landscapes, each of which faces different climate change impacts and challenges. This article presents findings from a National Geographic Society funded project, which employed a people-centered, narratives-based approach to study climate impacts and adaptation strategies of people in 19 rural study sites in four provinces of Pakistan (N = 108). The study looked at six climate-related stressors—changes in weather patterns, floods, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, drought, heat waves, and sea-level rise—in the coastal areas of Sindh, the desert of Thar, the plains of Punjab, and the mountains of Hunza, Gilgit, and Chitral. Speaking to people at these frontlines of climate change revealed much about climate suffering and trauma. Not only is the suffering induced by losses and damages to property and livelihood, but climate impacts also take a heavy toll on people’s psycho-social wellbeing, particularly when they are displaced from their homes. The findings further demonstrate that people try to adapt in various ways, for instance by altering their agricultural practices, but they face severe barriers to effective adaptation action. Understanding people’s perceptions of climate change and incorporating their recommendations in adaptation planning can help policy-makers develop a more participatory, inclusive, and holistic climate resilience framework for the future.

Since the mid‐20th century, the so‐called Great Acceleration (sensu Steffen et al., 2007, https://doi.org/10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[614:TAAHNO]2.0.CO;2) has amplified processes of ecosystem degradation, extinction of biological species, displacement of local peoples, losses of languages, and cultural diversity. These losses are still underperceived by the academic community, and by a global society that is disconnected from biocultural diversity. To reconnect society with biocultural diversity, we integrate temporal and spatial dimensions of seasonal cycles, by combining two conceptual frameworks: ecological calendars and the “3Hs” model of the biocultural ethic (sensu Rozzi, 2012, https://doi.org/10.5840/enviroethics20123414). The latter values the vital links between human and other‐than‐human co‐inhabitants, their life habits (e.g., cultural practices of humans or life cycles of other‐than‐human species), and the structure and processes of their shared habitats. This integration enhances an understanding of links between cultural practices and the life cycles of biocultural keystone species. As a synthesis, we use the term biocultural calendars to emphasize their co‐constitutive nature that result from interactions between dynamic biophysical and cultural processes embedded in specific ecosystems and cultures. These calendars link astronomical, biological, and cultural seasonal cycles that sustain life and enhance the integration of Indigenous and scientific knowledge to confront challenges of climate change faced from local to global scales. To illustrate this integration, we examine cultural practices and socio‐environmental changes across four contrasting ethnolinguistic communities in southwestern South America, from southern to northern Chile along a marked climatic gradient to show the broad application of the concept of biocultural calendars. Plain Language Summary We combine ecological calendars and the biocultural ethic. The first refers to natural or seasonal calendars and focuses on the temporal scale of life cycles and other ecological phenomena observed at a given place. The second emphasizes the vital links among human and non‐human co‐inhabitants, their habits (e.g., cultural practices of humans or life cycles of other‐than‐human species) in shared habitats (the “3Hs” of the biocultural ethic). Close observation of biological and cultural diversity, and their interrelationships (in short, biocultural diversity), synchronizes cultural practices with natural processes at specific places. This synchrony is particularly relevant in the context of climate change because by being locally attuned, communities enhance their capacity to adapt their activities to the variability of temperature, rainfall, and other climatic events. In this article we use the term biocultural calendars to more closely understand the links between different life habits in contrasting habitats and annual seasons. In this way, biocultural calendars provide an understanding of biological and cultural heterogeneity in different seasons and regions of the world that can help us adapt to a rapidly changing world. Key Points Biocultural calendars are co‐constitutively generated through interactions between dynamic biophysical and cultural processes The biocultural ethic's 3Hs model values the vital links among human and other‐than‐human co‐inhabitants, their habits, and shared habitats Biocultural calendars are based on seasonal cycles of keystone species that are part of communities of co‐inhabitants

Indigenous Peoples in Northwestern North America have always worked with predictable cycles of day and night, tides, moon phases, seasons, and species growth and reproduction, including such phenological indicators as the blooming of flowers and the songs of birds. Negotiating variability has been constant in people's lives. Long‐term monitoring and detailed knowledge of other lifeforms and landscapes of people's home territories have assisted in responding and adapting to change. Aspects of cultural knowledge and practice that have helped Indigenous Peoples navigate nature's cycles at different scales of time and space include kin ties and social relationships, experiential learning, language, storytelling and timing of ceremonies such as “First Foods” celebrations. Working with ecological processes, Indigenous Peoples have been able to maintain optimal conditions for preferred species, reducing variability and uncertainty through taking care of productive habitats, leaving ecosystems intact, and allowing other species to change in their own cycles. Since the onset of colonization, however, Indigenous Peoples' lifeways have been changed drastically, culminating with the current impacts of global climate change and biodiversity loss. This paper, based on contributions of numerous Indigenous Knowledge holders from across Northwestern North America, outlines some of the key ways in which Indigenous Peoples have embraced predictability and change in their environments and lifeways, and addresses the particular threat of climate change: its recognition, ways of adapting to it, and, ultimately, how it might be reversed through developing more careful, respectful relationships with and responsibilities for the other‐than‐human world. Plain Language Summary Indigenous Peoples of Northwestern North America have, for millennia, lived within seasonal cycles, using the life cycles of plants, birds, and other local species as indicators for harvesting. Their own calendars also mark the times of year when they can normally access and process the foods, materials, and medicines they rely upon and interact with. Indigenous Peoples have long held respectful, interdependent relationships with the plants and animals of their homelands, and have developed many different ways of tending and caring for these species, as well as creating adaptive practices, enabling them to respond to unanticipated shocks and events such as floods or unexpected loss of fish. The arrival of European colonizers caused many changes to Indigenous Peoples' lifeways, resulting in overall resource depletion and, most recently, drastic declines in biodiversity tied with global climate change, industrialization, and colonization. However, Indigenous Peoples' knowledge, practices, and strategies remain critically important, and are absolutely vital in identifying, alleviating, and reversing the impacts of these combined threats. Equally crucial are ethical ways of working together for the benefit of all. Key Points Indigenous Knowledge has guided Peoples of Northwestern North America in optimizing their seasonal activities in synchrony with biological species The breadth and variety of Indigenous Knowledge prepared people for interannual variation, and helped them face the impacts with resilience Currently, with biodiversity loss and climate change threatening protective systems, Indigenous Knowledge is as critically important as ever

The climate is changing, and the Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region is vulnerable to the consequences. Many of the region's countries are facing warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology, and more extremes, droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. This book presents an overview of what adaptation to climate change might mean for Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It starts with a discussion of emerging best-practice adaptation planning around the world and a review of the latest climate projections. It then discusses possible actions to improve resilience organized around impacts on health, natural resources (water, biodiversity, and the coastal environment), the 'unbuilt' environment (agriculture and forestry), and the built environment (infrastructure and housing). The last chapter concludes with a discussion of two areas in great need of strengthening given the changing climate: disaster preparedness and hydro-meteorological services. This book has four key messages: a) contrary to popular perception, Eastern Europe and Central Asia face significant threats from climate change, with a number of the most serious risks already in evidence; b) vulnerability over the next 10 to 20 years is likely to be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues; c) even countries and sectors that stand to benefit from climate change are poorly positioned to do so; and d) the next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA countries to make their development more resilient to climate change while reaping numerous co-benefits.

The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low‐elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier‐ and moraine‐dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice. Key Points Deglaciation of low‐ to mid‐latitude mountain ranges is likely to occur within this century Strong impacts on hydrology, erosion rates, sediment and nutrient flux, as well as water quality, aquatic habitat and biotic communities will result Far‐reaching implications for human adaptation to a world of mountains without permanent snow and ice

Biological soil crusts (or biocrust) are diminutive soil communities with ecological functions disproportionate to their size. These communities are composed of lichens, bryophytes, cyanobacteria, fungi, liverworts, and other microorganisms. Creating stabilizing matrices, these microorganisms interact with soil surface minerals thereby enhancing soil quality by redistributing nutrients and reducing erosion by containment of soil particles. Climatic stressors and anthropogenic disturbances reduce the cover, abundance, and functions of these communities leading to an increase of aeolian dust, invasive plant establishment, reduction of water retention in the environment, and overall poor soil condition. Drylands are the most degraded terrestrial ecosystems on the globe and support a disproportionately large human population. Restoration of biocrust communities in semi‐arid and arid ecosystems benefits ecosystem health while decreasing dust emissions. Dust abatement can improve human health directly but also indirectly by reducing pathogenic microbe load circulating in the ambient air. We hypothesize that biocrusts not only reduce pathogen load in the air column but also inhibit the proliferation of certain pathogenic microbes in the soil. We provide a review of mechanisms by which healthy biocrusts in dryland systems may reduce soil‐borne pathogens that impact human health. Ecologically sustainable mitigation strategies of biocrust restoration will not only improve soil conditions but could also reduce human exposure to soil‐borne pathogens. Plain Language Summary Biocrust compacts soil and redistributes nutrients to neighboring vegetation that can be utilized in agricultural fields and natural ecosystems. These communities can restore degraded drylands from overgrazing, anthropogenic disturbances, and weathering events which contribute to an increase in dust emissions. The reduction of dust has a direct impact on human health but also has an indirect impact by reducing the number of pathogenic microbes that are circulating in the ambient air. Not only do biocrusts contribute to biological and chemical processes, but biocrusts aid in stabilizing the soil reducing dust emissions dramatically. We provide a hypothetical framework of how healthy biocrusts in dryland systems can lead to the reduction of soil‐borne pathogens. It is predicted that with climate change, infectious diseases, especially fungal diseases, are going to increase in the future by altering virulence and/or expanding the defined habitat range. Ecologically sustainable mitigation strategies, such as biocrust restoration, are imperative to combat this increase. Key Points Biocrusts reduce dust emissions that may carry pathogens that impact human health by reducing pathogenic microbe load in the ambient air Biocrust could be used to stimulate nutrient cycling in agricultural fields

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.

Mangrove forests have survived a number of catastrophic climate events since first appearing along the shores of the Tethys Sea during the late Cretaceous-Early Tertiary. The existence of mangrove peat deposits worldwide attests to past episodes of local and regional extinction, primarily in response to abrupt, rapid rises in sea level. Occupying a harsh margin between land and sea, most mangrove plants and associated organisms are predisposed to be either resilient or resistant to most environmental change. Based on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecasts, mangrove forests along arid coasts, in subsiding river deltas, and on many islands are predicted to decline in area, structural complexity, and/or in functionality, but mangroves will continue to expand polewards. It is highly likely that they will survive into the foreseeable future as sea level, global temperatures, and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations continue to rise.

Human populations and ecosystems are extensively exposed to pesticides. Most nations lack the capacity to control pesticide contamination and have limited availability of pesticide use information. Ecuador is a country with intense pesticide use with high exposure risks to humans and the environment, although relative or combined risks are not well understood. Here, we analyzed the distribution of application rates in Ecuador and identified regions of concern because of high potential exposure. We used a geospatial analysis to identify grid cells (∼8 km × 8 km) where the highest pesticide application rates and density of human populations overlap. Furthermore, we identified other regions of concern based on the number of amphibian species as an indicator of ecosystem integrity and the location of natural protected areas. We found that 28% of Ecuador's population dwelled in areas with high pesticide application rate. We identified an area of ∼512 km2 in the Amazon region where high application rates, large human settlements, and a high number of amphibian species overlapped. Additionally, we distinguished clusters of pesticide application rates and human populations that intersected with natural protected areas. Ecuador exemplifies how pesticides are disproportionately applied in areas with the potential to affect human health and ecosystems' integrity. Global estimates of population dwelling, pesticide application rates, and environmental factors are key in prioritizing locations to conduct further exposure assessments. The modular and scalable nature of the geospatial tools we developed can be expanded and adapted to other regions of the world where data on pesticide use are limited. Plain Language Summary Pesticide exposures are a concerning issue that threatens ecosystem integrity and human health. However, most countries cannot assess, monitor, and control pesticide contamination. We studied this threat in Ecuador, a country with one of the highest application rates of pesticides worldwide, an export‐bound agricultural industry, a large population at risk, remarkable biodiversity, and a limited understanding of the nationwide extent of pesticide contamination. We assessed the geographic distribution of pesticide application rates and identified regions where the potential risk of exposure to human populations and ecosystems requires detailed exposure assessments. Using publicly available global data sets that locate human populations, biodiversity, natural parks, and pesticide use rates, we mapped areas where high levels of pesticide use and high density of human population overlap. We also assessed areas where natural parks and amphibian species may be threatened. Around 28% of Ecuador’s population lived in areas with a high pesticide application rate. We found widespread intensive use of pesticides in Ecuador in regions that overlap with human populations and ecosystems at risk of exposure. The methods developed relied on open‐source software and publicly available data. Thus, our approach can be applied to other regions where data on pesticide use are limited. Key Points Close to 30% of the population in Ecuador lives in areas with high pesticide application rates High pesticide use areas create risks for human populations, biodiversity and protected ecosystems within national parks The accessible, modular, and scalable methods developed facilitate reproducing population‐level assessments across the world