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This paper provides a new argument for \"shock\" versus \"gradualism\" in the implementation of trade policies. In the simple context of a small open economy with rational expectations, we consider the comparative welfare effects of eliminating an import tariff either immediately as an unanticipated shock, or gradually over a preannounced length of time. The gradualist policy introduces a distortion in consumption-accumulation decisions and generates welfare costs. And if the gradual change is extended over \"too long\" a period, these costs may exceed the long-run benefits of liberalization.

This article proposes that untethering amerina at Stat. Silv. 1.6.18 from Pliny's mention of varieties of apples and pears called Amerina allows us to read the line as instead referring to a type of pastry originating in Umbrian Ameria, which is within ancient naming practices for pastries and fits better into the context of the catalogue in which the line occurs. In this case, the second half of the catalogue is closely akin to the crustulum et mulsum donative of wealthy Italian patrons in the early empire.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, Russia and the other countries which were members of the USSR have adopted value-added taxes. The value-added tax now provides a very significant portion of total tax revenue in all of these countries. Ideally, the value-added tax will serve as a relatively efficient, neutral, revenue source at the national level. The Russian value-added tax, however, contains a number of unique provisions, reflected in the laws of many of the other transition countries, which cause it to fall short of this standard. These countries also must decide how their value-added taxes are to apply to trade among themselves. This paper describes several of the provisions unique to the Russian value-added tax and analyzes their probable effects. It then discusses the development of arrangements which have evolved to date with respect to applying the value-added tax to trade among the transition countries, and suggests possible answers to the vexing questions raised by this issue.

This paper examines the theory underpinning the design of optimal tariffs in a developing economy, and the experience of implementation of tariff reforms. A central issue is whether and when a case can be made for a uniform tariff structure. While theory advocates a differentiated tariff structure (except under a balance of payments objective), political economy considerations, inadequate information, and administrative convenience point to a minimally differentiated tariff structure. The experience of reform indicates that tariff structures are mainly influenced by income distribution and protection objectives. The ability to successfully reduce tariffs depends on measures taken to alleviate fiscal and balance of payments constraints.

Foreign aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks like a change in the terms of trade can significantly improve the welfare of aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms of trade shocks can reduce the cost of business cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by four percent of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by three percent without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.

We describe unique aspects of microstates-they are less diversified, suffer from lumpiness of investment, they are geographically at the periphery and prone to natural disasters, and have less access to capital markets-that may make the current account more vulnerable, penalizing exports and making imports dearer. After reviewing the \"old\" and \"new\" view on current account deficits, we attempt to identify policies to help reduce the current account. Probit regressions suggest that microstates are more likely to have large current account adjustments if (i) they are already running large current account deficits; (ii) they run budget surpluses; (iii) the terms of trade improve; (iv) they are less open; and (v) GDP growth declines. Monetary policy, financial development, per capita GDP, and the de jure exchange rate classification matter less. However, changes in the real effective exchange rate do not help drive reductions in the current account deficit in microstates. We explore reasons for this and provide policy implications.

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Trinidad and Tobago to assess the effects of trade liberalization and terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate and the overall fiscal position of the government. The model is also used to evaluate the implications of alternative tax policies designed to offset the increase in the budget deficit of the central government that results from both types of external sector shocks.

This paper presents a simple partial equilibrium framework for considering the economic implications of administered protection in Tanzania, against the background of the country's parallel exchange market and the establishment of the own-funds and open general license (OGL) facilities for authorizing imports. It also presents estimates of the range of possible adjustment in the real exchange rate and trade flows following from a unification of the highly-fragmented import licensing system, coupled with sufficient liberalization of the OGL facility to eliminate own-funded imports and the incentive to export smuggling.

Devaluation is an integral part of adjustment in many developing countries, particularly relied upon by countries facing large external imbalances. A devaluation can only reduce trade imbalances if it translates to a real devaluation and if trade flows respond to relative prices in a significant and predictable manner. However, a recent strand in the empirical trade literature has questioned the existence of a stable relationship between trade flows and its traditional determinants. This paper re-examines the relationship between relative prices and imports and exports in a sample of 12 developing countries.

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of an open economy and use it to examine issues of trade liberalization in Mexico. In particular, we consider the fiscal implications of quotas and tariffs and, accordingly, their removal. We show that, in the short run, there may be negative revenue effects from tariff liberalization, so that it may be necessary to raise domestic taxes to compensate for the tariff reduction. We also show that these results are highly sensitive to behavioral shifts in exports. Since such shifts are quite likely given the nature of the trade reform currently being undertaken, it is important that we qualify our results accordingly.