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Inflation, Nominal Interest Rates and the Variability of Output
This paper examines the distribution of output around capacity when money demand is a nonlinear function of the nominal interest rate such that nominal interest rates cannot become negative. When fluctuations in output result primarily from disturbances to the money market, the variance of output is shown to be an increasing function of the trend inflation rate. When they result from disturbances to the goods market, the variance of output is a decreasing function of the trend inflation rate. When both disturbances are significant, there exists, in general, a critical non-zero trend inflation rate that minimizes the variance of output.
Journal Article
Inflation : what it is and how it works
\"Describes the premise of inflation and how it affects the economy\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation
Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target.
Journal Article
We need to talk about inflation : 14 urgent lessons from the last 2,000 years
Here is a myth-busting explanation of inflation, the desperate gullibility of central bankers and finance ministers - and our abject failure to learn from history.
BOOK
The return of inflation : money and capital in the 21st century
Both a history and a contemporary analysis, an illuminating investigation of the defining economic concern of our time. The last year has seen the return of inflation as a preoccupation of political decision-makers, economists, and the general public. After two decades of wondering why inflation was so low, despite vast economic stimulus, economists were surprised by the recent surge in price increases. Despite disagreement about what exactly is happening in the economy, there is unanimity in one belief: slowing growth to control inflation. To focus on inflation's return, Paul Mattick looks at both the past and present, placing current events in the context of capitalism's history. Exploring the nature of money itself, he provides a concise, jargon-free understanding of recent inflation as well as official efforts to control it, illuminating the state of our contemporary economy.
Book
Inflation Expectations, Real Rates, and Risk Premia: Evidence from Inflation Swaps
We develop a model of nominal and real bond yield curves that has four stochastic drivers but seven factors: three factors primarily determine the cross-section of yields, whereas four volatility factors solely determine risk premia. The model is estimated using nominal Treasury yields, survey inflation forecasts, and inflation swap rates and has attractive empirical properties. Time-varying volatility is particularly apparent in shortterm real rates and expected inflation. Also, we detail the different economic forces that drive short-and long-term real and inflation risk premia and provide evidence that Treasury inflation-protected securities were undervalued prior to 2004 and during the recent financial crisis.
Journal Article
Monetary regimes and inflation : history, economic and political relationships
\"Exploring the characteristics of inflations and comparing historical cases from Roman times up to the modern day, this book provides an in depth discussion of the subject. It analyses the high and moderate inflations caused by the inflationary bias of poltiical systems and economic relationships, as well as the importance of different monetary regimes in containing them. The differences for the possible size of inflations among monetary regimes like metallic currencies, the gold standard and fiat paper money are discussed. It is shown that huge budget deficits of government have been responsible for all hyperinflations. This revised second edition debates whether a growth of the money supply exceeding that of real Gross Domestic Production is a necessary or sufficient reason for inflation and also includes a new concluding chapter, which explores the long-term tendencies to create, maintain and abolish inflation-stable monetary regimes. Moreover, the conditions for long-term inflation-stable monetary regimes in history are explored. By surveying thirty hyperinflations, Peter Bernholz demonstrates that certain economic traits have been stable characteristics of inflations over the centuries, and illustrates their causes. He also examines the consequences of high inflations for unemployment, the distortions between relative prices and the political conditions that allow a return to stable monetary regimes after high inflations, given the inflationary tendencies of political systems. This book will appeal to a wide-ranging audience, including students, economists, historians, political scientists and sociologists looking to imrpove their knowledge of monetary regimes and inflation. Bankers, businessmen and politicians attempting to solve the problems caused for them by inflation, will also find this to be a useful read\"--Back cover.
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