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This paper proposes an accounting framework that breaks up a country's gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double-counted terms. Our parsimonious framework bridges a gap between official trade statistics (in gross value terms) and national accounts (in value-added terms), and integrates all previous measures of vertical specialization and value-added trade in the literature into a unified framework. To illustrate the potential of such a method, we present a number of applications including re-computing revealed comparative advantages and the magnifying impact of multi-stage production on trade costs.

In this paper, we examined back-and-forth international transactions through tariff reduction by estimating modified gravity equations for finished goods and intermediate goods separately. Our main findings are as follows. Exports of finished machinery products are negatively associated with not only the importer’s tariff rates on finished machinery products but also the exporter’s tariff rates on machinery parts. Similarly, exports of machinery parts are negatively associated with not only the importer’s tariff rates on machinery parts but also the exporter’s tariff rates on finished machinery products. These results imply that tariff reduction in only one production process in an industry has the potential to drastically change the magnitude of trade in the whole industry.

This paper quantifies the gains from openness arising from trade and multinational production (MP). We present a model that captures key dimensions of the interaction between these two flows: trade and MP are competing ways to serve a foreign market, MP relies on imports of intermediate goods from the home country, and foreign affiliates of multinationals can export part of their output. The calibrated model implies that the gains from trade can be twice as high as the gains calculated in trade-only models, while the gains from MP are slightly lower than the gains computed in MP-only models.

Why are episodes of sovereign default accompanied by deep recessions? The existing literature cannot answer this question. On one hand, sovereign default models treat income fluctuations as an exogenous endowment process with ad hoc default costs. On the other hand, emerging markets business cycle models abstract from modeling default and treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital. We propose instead a general equilibrium model of both sovereign default and business cycles. In the model, some imported inputs require working capital financing, and default triggers an efficiency loss as these inputs are replaced by imperfect substitutes, because both firms and the government are excluded from credit markets. Default is an optimal decision of a benevolent planner for whom, even after internalizing the adverse effects of default on economic activity, financial autarky has a higher payoff than debt repayment. The model explains the main features of observed cyclical dynamics around defaults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key long-run business cycle moments.

This article develops an elementary theory of global supply chains. We consider a world economy with an arbitrary number of countries, one factor of production, a continuum of intermediate goods and one final good. Production of the final good is sequential and subject to mistakes. In the unique free trade equilibrium, countries with lower probabilities of making mistakes at all stages specialize in later stages of production. Using this simple theoretical framework, we offer a first look at how vertical specialization shapes the interdependence of nations.

A common view is that cross-border vertical linkages played a key role in the 2008–2009 collapse of global trade. This paper presents two accounting results from a global input-output framework that shed light on this channel. We feed in observed changes in final demand and find that trade in final goods fell by twice as much as trade in intermediate goods. Nevertheless, intermediate goods account for more than two-fifths of the trade collapse. We also find that vertical specialization trade fell 13 percent, while value-added trade fell by 10 percent, because declines in demand were largest in highly vertically-specialized sectors.

In this paper, we study the import of intermediate goods (MIG) for México, these imports represent 80% of total imports, and they are closely related to exports and production for domestic demand. We first try to estimate a VEC model using MIG, exports, domestic demand, and real exchange rates but we find impossible to estimate directly due to problems of endogeneity between MIG, exports and domestic demand. We construct instrumental variables for exports and domestic demand. But then we face multicollinearity problems between the instrumental variables. Therefore, we estimate two separate VECs one for MIG for exports and another for MIG for domestic demand. We find minimal possibilities to increase local content for exports, but we find hope in the production for domestic demand.

The traditional flow of goods from primary production through to manufacturing and consumption has expanded across international borders conterminously with globalization.Vertical specialization (VS) in processing and manufacturing in China has driven export growth.

This paper studies the link between volatility, labor market flexibility, and international trade.International differences in labor market regulations affect how firms can adjust to idiosyncratic shocks. These institutional differences interact with sector specific differences in volatility (the variance of the firm-specific shocks in a sector) to generate a new source of comparative advantage.Other things equal, countries with more flexible labor markets specialize in sectors with higher volatility. Empirical evidence for a large sample of countries strongly supports this theory: the exports of countries with more flexible labor markets are biased towards high-volatility sectors. We show how differences in labor market institutions can be parsimoniously integrated into the workhorse model of Ricardian comparative advantage of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977, American Economic Review, 67,823-839). We also show how our model can be extended to multiple factors of production.

Does an increase in imported inputs raise exports? We provide empirical evidence on the direct and indirect channels via which importing more varieties of intermediate inputs increases export scope: (1) imported inputs may enhance productivity and thereby help the firm to overcome export fixed costs (the indirect productivity channel); (2) low-priced imported inputs may boost expected export revenue (the direct-cost channel); and (3) importing intermediate inputs may reduce export fixed costs by providing the quality/technology required in demanding export markets (the quality/technology channel). We use firm-level data on imports at the product (HS6) level provided by French Customs for the 1996-2005 period, and distinguish the origin of imported inputs (developing vs. developed countries) in order to disentangle the different productivity channels above. Regarding the indirect effect, imported inputs raise productivity, and thereby exports, both through greater complementarity of inputs and technology/quality transfer. Controlling for productivity, imports of intermediate inputs from developed and developing countries also have a direct impact on the number of exported varieties. Both quality/technology and price channels are at play. These findings are robust to specifications that explicitly deal with potential reverse causality between imported inputs and export scope.