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We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity in production to quantify the trade and welfare effects from tariff changes. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a multiplicative gravity equation. We apply our model and use our estimated elasticities to identify the impact of NAFTA's tariff reductions. We find that Mexico's welfare increases by 1.31%, U.S.'s welfare increases by 0.08%, and Canada's welfare declines by 0.06%. We find that intra-bloc trade increases by 118% for Mexico, 11% for Canada, and 41% for the U. S. We show that welfare effects from tariff reductions are reduced when the structure of production does not take into account intermediate goods or input-output linkages. Our results highlight the importance of sectoral heterogeneity, intermediate goods, and sectoral linkages for the quantification of the welfare gains from tariffs reductions.

I consider the aggregate impact of low intermediate input intensity in the agricultural sector of developing countries. In a dynamic general equilibrium model with idiosyncratic shocks, incomplete markets, and subsistence requirements, farmers in developing countries use fewer intermediate inputs because it limits their exposure to uninsurable shocks. The calibrated model implies that Indian agricultural productivity would increase by 16% if markets were complete, driven by quantitatively important increases in both the average real intermediate share and measured TFP through lower misallocation. I then extend the results to consider the importance of risk in other contexts. First, the introduction of insurance decreases cross-country differences in agricultural labour productivity by 14%. Second, scaling the introduction of improved seeds to decrease downside risk reduces inequality by reallocating resources from rich to poor farmers via equilibrium effects. This reallocation substantially increases aggregate productivity relative to what would be expected from extrapolating the partial equilibrium impact.

This paper examines the impact of financially constrained intermediate inputs on within-industry total factor productivity loss. Utilizing exogenous tax reforms in China as a natural experiment, our difference-in-difference analysis reveals that reduced tax burdens lead to increased firm-level intermediate inputs, particularly among financially constrained firms. We incorporate financially constrained intermediate inputs into a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics. Our calibration suggests that financially constrained intermediate inputs play a quantitatively more important role in accounting for misallocation than financially constrained capital. The presence of financially constrained intermediate inputs introduces a downward bias in the measurement of value-added productivity, especially for firms in the top decile of gross-output productivity. As a result, the average “efficient” levels of capital and labor for the top decile firms in the standard Hsieh and Klenow (2009) exercise are lower than what is truly efficient.

We develop a dynamic model to analyze the impact of input tariff liberalization on input prices, trading decisions, and productivity. Although input tariffs directly affect input price benefits of importing, their impact on trade participation generates indirect benefits through productivity improvements and complementarity between importing and exporting. To disentangle these effects, we separately measure importing's effect on input prices and productivity and examine Chinese paint manufacturers' reaction to input tariff liberalization. We find that a mild short‐term effect of tariff liberalization is amplified in the long run by induced trade participation, resulting in even higher productivity and lower input prices.

The rise of economic protectionism worldwide has come with the re-emergence of mercantilist policies whereby governments push for exports while restricting imports. Against this populist approach, we show that importing inputs can raise productivity and export. Using firm-level data matched with very detailed customs data of Indonesia’s exports and imports during 2008–2012, we apply instrumental variable strategy with import tariffs and import weighted real exchange rates as instruments for import of intermediate inputs. We find causality from imported inputs to productivity increase and export growth. Higher access to input varieties has a larger impact than an increase in import volume on export, implying that the main benefits of importing may come from access to broader alternatives of inputs. Furthermore, the impact is also larger when imports originate from developed countries, suggestive of a positive effect of technology and product quality.

The booming digital economy is promoting industrial upgrading and transformation, providing an opportunity for the industrial low-carbon development. Based on input–output analysis and panel data regression, the impact of the input of intermediate digital products on Chinese industrial carbon intensity from 1997 to 2017 has been evaluated. The results reveal that the input of China’s intermediate digital products can significantly reduce industrial carbon intensity, and significantly reduce the carbon intensity of non-energy-intensive industries. It has also been discovered that the input of intermediate digital product manufacturing can significantly reduce the carbon intensity of different types of industries, while the input of the intermediate digital products services industry has no significant effect on the reduction of industrial carbon intensity. Channel analysis shows that the input of the intermediate digital products can reduce industrial carbon intensity by improving productive efficiency and promoting innovative technology. In the current climate, it is especially necessary to increase the input of the intermediate digital product manufacturing industry in industrial development.

A key obstacle to fundamental tariff reform in many developing countries is the revenue loss that it ultimately implies. This paper establishes a simple and practicable strategy for realizing the efficiency gains from tariff reform without reducing public revenues, showing that for a small open economy, a cut in tariffs combined with a point-for-point increase in domestic consumption taxes increases both welfare and public revenues. Increasingly stringent conditions are required, however, to ensure unambiguously beneficial outcomes from this reform strategy when allowance is made for such important features as nontradeable goods, intermediate inputs, and imperfect competition.

Globalization has led to a rapid increase in the international trade of intermediate goods, which plays a vital role in economic growth. This study investigates whether trade openness facilitates output growth by improving access to intermediate inputs. In particular, it has been examined whether industrial sectors with higher intermediate input diversity grow relatively faster in countries that are more open to trade. Through the adoption of the difference-in-differences approach, we find strong evidence that this is indeed the case based on a large cross-country sample. The empirical estimation indicates that industries more diversified in intermediate inputs will grow by 2.6 percentage points faster in more outward-oriented countries. Furthermore, our results are robust to various specification checks and are unlikely to be driven by omitted variables, outliers, or reverse causality. By identifying the mechanism through which trade openness facilitates output growth, our study highlights the additional gains from trade liberalization that may be undermined by increased protectionism, especially for industrial sectors that rely on diversified intermediate inputs.

This paper investigates the effect of foreign bank entry on the export quality of firms. For this purpose, we mainly use the transaction data from the Chinese Customs Database and the production data from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms of China during the years 2000–2006. The obtained data consists of 62,483 observations gathered from 19,888 firms. The results show that foreign bank entry enhanced the export quality of firms that are more externally financially dependent. This influence is stronger for non-state-owned firms and ordinary-trade firms than for the other types of firms. We further demonstrate that foreign bank entry is mainly through promoting innovation endeavors and improving the quality of intermediate inputs yielding to enhance the export quality of firms that have more external financial requirements.

This paper provides evidence that external financial status is an important determinant of firms’ responses to trade liberalization. Based on the difference-in-differences (DID) estimation strategy and data from Chinese firms, we find that input tariff reduction has a significantly positive effect on export quality for firms with high credit constraints but has no significant impact on firms with low credit constraints. This finding suggests that trade liberalization leads to the upgrading of export quality by firms that face binding credit constraints. We also find that the quality upgrading of intermediate inputs and the enhancement of productivity can plausibly explain the upgrading of export quality by firms with high credit constraints. Our paper has some important implications for trade and financial policies.