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"INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKET"
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The Euro, the dollar and the global financial crisis : currency challenges seen from emerging markets
\"This book analyses how financial elites in key dollar-holding emerging markets perceive the contest between the euro and the dollar for global currency status. It also assesses how far the Eurozone has gone in challenging US hegemony in monetary affairs through the prism of these elites.Drawing on Chartalist and Constructivist theories of money, the author provides a systematic approach to studying global currency dynamics and presents extensive original empirical data on financial elites in China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Brazil. The author demonstrates, amongst other things, how the gradual ascendance of a structurally flawed currency like the euro has highlighted the weaknesses of the dollar ad how the euro has demonstrated that sovereignty sharing in monetary affairs is possible and that the international monetary system can be a multicurrency and multilateral system.In this highly innovative and important book, Otero-Inglesias shows the importance of studying financial elites in Brazil, China and the GCC countries in order to understand the full impact, material and ideational, of the euro in the transformation of the IMS. It will be vital reading for students and scholars of International Political Economy, International Economics, International Finance, Economic History, Economic Sociology, International Relations, Comparative Political Economy and Comparative Politics\"-- Provided by publisher.
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Does Incomplete Spanning in International Financial Markets Help to Explain Exchange Rates?
We assume that domestic (foreign) agents, when investing abroad, can only trade in the foreign (domestic) risk-free rates. In a preference-free environment, we derive the exchange rate volatility and risk premia in any such incomplete spanning model, as well as a measure of exchange rate cyclicality. We find that incomplete spanning lowers the volatility of exchange rate, increases the risk premia but only by creating exchange rate predictability, and does not affect the exchange rate cyclicality.
Journal Article
Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics
Home bias is a perennial feature of international capital markets. We review various explanations of this puzzling phenomenon highlighting recent developments in macroeconomic modeling that incorporate international portfolio choices in standard two-country general equilibrium models. We refer to this new literature as Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics. We focus on three broad classes of explanations: (i) hedging motives in frictionless financial markets (real exchange rate and nontradable income risk), (ii) asset trade costs in international financial markets (such as transaction costs or differences in tax treatments between national and foreign assets), and (iii) informational frictions and behavioral biases. Recent theories call for new portfolio facts beyond equity home bias. We present new evidence on cross-border asset holdings across different types of assets: equities, bonds and bank lending and new micro data on institutional holdings of equity at the fund level. These data should inform macroeconomic modeling of the open economy and a growing literature of models of delegated investment.
Journal Article
Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy
We provide a pricing theory for emerging asset classes, like emerging markets, that are not yet mature enough to be attractive to the general public. We show how leverage cycles can cause contagion, flight to collateral, and issuance rationing in a frequently recurring phase we call the anxious economy. Our model provides an explanation for the volatile access of emerging economies to international financial markets, and for three stylized facts we identify in emerging markets and high yield data since the late 1990s. Our analytical framework is a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, incomplete markets, and endogenous collateral, plus an extension encompassing adverse selection.
Journal Article
Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets
We develop an international financial market model in which domestic and foreign residents differ in their beliefs about the information content in public signals. We determine how informational advantages of domestic investors in the interpretation of home public signals affect equity markets. We evaluate the ability of our model to generate four international-finance anomalies: (i) the co-movement of returns and capital flows, (ii) home-equity preference, (iii) the dependence of firm returns on home and foreign factors, and (iv) abnormal returns around foreign firm cross-listing in the home market. Their relationships with empirical differences-of-opinion proxies are consistent with the model.
Journal Article
Complex network analysis of volatility spillovers between global financial indicators and G20 stock markets
This paper analyses the dynamic transmission mechanism of volatility spillovers between key global financial indicators and G20 stock markets. To examine volatility spillover relations, we combine a bivariate GARCH-BEKK model with complex network theory. Specifically, we construct a volatility network of international financial markets utilising the spatial connectedness of spillovers (consisting of nodes and edges). The findings show that spillover relations between global variables and G20 markets vary significantly across five identified sub-periods. Notably, networks are much denser in crisis periods compared to non-crisis periods. In comparing two crisis periods, Global Financial Crisis (2008) and COVID-19 Crisis (2020) periods, the network statistics suggest that volatility spillovers in the latter period are more transitive and intense than the former. This suggests that financial volatility spreads more rapidly and directly through key financial indicators to the G20 stock markets. For example, oil and bonds are the largest volatility senders, while the markets of Saudi Arabia, Russia, South Africa, and Brazil are the main volatility receivers. In the former crisis, the source of financial volatility concentrates primarily in the USA, Australia, Canada, and Saudi Arabia, which are the largest volatility senders and receivers. China emerges as generally the least sensitive market to external volatility.
Journal Article
Leverage Constraints and the International Transmission of Shocks
Recent macroeconomic experience has drawn attention to the importance of interdependence among countries through financial markets and institutions, independently of traditional trade linkages. This paper develops a model of the international transmission of shocks due to interdependent portfolio holdings among leverage-constrained investors. In our model, without leverage constraints on investment, financial integration itself has no implication for international macro comovements. When leverage constraints bind, however, the presence of these constraints in combination with diversified portfolios introduces a powerful financial transmission channel that results in a positive comovement of production, independently of the size of international trade linkages. In addition, the paper shows that with binding leverage constraints, the type of financial integration is critical for international comovement. If international financial markets allow for trade only in noncontingent bonds, but not equities, then the international comovement of shocks is negative. Thus, with leverage constraints, moving from bond trade to equity trade reverses the sign of the international transmission of shocks.
Journal Article
Do Stock Returns Really Decrease with Default Risk? New International Evidence
This study constructs a novel data set of bankruptcy filings for a large sample of non-U.S. firms in 14 developed markets and sheds new light on the cross-sectional relation between default risk and stock returns. Using the reduced-form approach of Campbell et al. (2008) to estimate default probabilities, we offer conclusive evidence supporting the existence of a significant positive default risk premium in international markets. This finding is robust to different portfolio weighting schemes, data filters, risk-adjusting approaches, and holding period definitions. Decomposing the default risk measure into its systematic and idiosyncratic components, we find that the former drives this positive relation. We also show that the default risk premium is more pronounced in countries where creditor protection is stronger and shareholder bargaining power is lower.
The online appendix is available at
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2712
.
This paper was accepted by Amit Seru, finance.
Journal Article
Participatory authoritarianism: From bureaucratic transformation to civic participation in Russia and China
This article explores the way in which Russian and Chinese governments have rearticulated global trends towards active citizenship and participatory governance, and integrated them into pre-existing illiberal political traditions. The concept of ‘participatory authoritarianism’ is proposed in order to capture the resulting practices of local governance that, on the one hand enable citizens to engage directly with local officials in the policy process, but limit, direct, and control civic participation on the other. The article explores the emergence of discourses of active citizenship at the national level and the accompanying legislative development of government-organised participatory mechanisms, demonstrating how the twin logics of openness and control, pluralism and monism, are built into their rationale and implementation. It argues that as state bureaucracies have integrated into international financial markets, so new participatory mechanisms have become more important for local governance as government agencies have lost the monopoly of information for effective policymaking. Practices of participatory authoritarianism enable governments to implement public sector reform while directing increased civic agency into non-threatening channels.
Journal Article
Semi-peripheral financialisation: the case of Portugal
This paper presents the main features of the financialisation of the Portuguese economy and society by focusing on the relation between the Portuguese financial sector and both external and domestic economic agents. It underlines the role played by the insertion of domestic finance into international financial markets in the financialisation of the country. Based on the Portuguese case, it elaborates on the theoretical understanding of the context-specific nature of semi-peripheral financialisation aimed as a contribution to an emerging body of literature addressing this phase of capitalism.
Journal Article