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In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration.

PurposeWithin the labor-intensive construction industry characterized by distinctly structural shortages in the labor force worldwide, efficient and effective migration of construction workers across regions is critical for the smooth operation of construction activities. This study aims to investigate how the interregional migration patterns of construction workers are impacted by the disparities in both employment opportunities and environment amenities between the origin and destination provinces.Design/methodology/approachDrawing on the push and pull theory and the archival data on 13,728 migrant construction workers in China, descriptive analyses are first performed to characterize the interregional migration patterns of the investigated construction workers. Combining regional data in the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this study uses hierarchical regression modeling techniques to empirically test the relative importance of the employment-related and environment-related factors in driving the interregional migration of construction workers after controlling for the effects of related economic and geographic factors.FindingsThe results provide evidence that the interregional migration of construction workers is principally driven by the disparities in employment opportunities while disparities in environment amenities (including climate comfort disparity, medical service disparity and educational service disparity) generally play much fewer substantive roles. With regard to the impacts of employment opportunities, the results provide evidence that compared with the disparity in job market size, the disparities in job income and industry development level are more significantly relevant factors, which positively pull and adversely push the interregional migration flows, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsThis study contributes to a deepened understanding of how workers specifically balance their employment and amenity needs to make temporary migration decisions in the “laggard” labor-intensive construction industry. This study also adds to the literature on population migration by characterizing the specific characteristics of construction workers and the temporary nature of the workers' migration activities. The findings hold important practical implications for construction organizations and policymakers for effectively managing the mobility of migrant construction workers.Originality/valueThe extant literature on migrant construction workers has primarily focused on the consequences of international migration and the generalization of empirical findings on population migration mechanisms in other domains to the construction industry is substantially limited by the specific characteristics of construction workers and the temporary nature of their migration activities. In addressing this gap, this study represents an exploratory effort to quantitatively characterize the interregional migration patterns of construction workers in the labor-intensive construction industry and examines the roles of employment opportunity and environmental amenity in driving interregional migration.

The relations between metropolitan areas of southern Poland and domestic population migration flows in the period of 2008-2010 were discussed in this paper. Southern Polish regions demonstrate low intensity of intraregional population movements while interregional flows are quite significant, within considering territory. The majority of migration flows occur in relation to the cities of Wrocław and Cracow, as regards neighbouring as well as remaining regions of Poland, due to their economic potential and metropolitan character.

This paper explores age-specific migration flows between regions of Russia. Using age-disaggregated data of the Russian Census 2010, we cluster interregional migration flows based on prevailing age-groups of migrants, analyse diversity and similarity in the choice of age-specific migration destinations and describe general socio-economic characteristics of these flows. It is for the first time that the relationship between migration and migrants’ age and life-cycle events is analysed in the Russian context. Similar to migrants in other countries, migrants in Russia choose the place of residence depending on their age. Migration flows which differ by dominating age group of migrants quite often have opposite destinations, because motivations of migration also differ. Migration follows various stages of the life-cycle: people are born in one region, study in another region, go to work in a different region, and resettle to another place after retirement. Migration modeling turns to be complicated if the impact of age factor is ignored. Therefore, the age of migrants should be considered when analyzing, modeling and interpreting interregional migration in Russia.

The study aims at identifying the role of traditional and new factors that contribute to attracting highly educated workers. We summarized the key literature facts and performed econometric analyses on previously unused data on both internal and external migration with higher education in the Russian regions from 2008 to 2019. Our methodology differs from traditional models based on migration flows between destinations and focuses on characteristics of receiving regions. We showed that densely populated metropolitan areas with broader labour markets opportunities stimulate highly skilled mobility; higher income, new vacancies and housing availability are among significant traditional factors. However, migrants with higher education also chose educated, healthy communities and favourable business environment as such regions provided wider career and other opportunities. It is shown for the first time for Russia that improving the business climate helps to attract highly skilled human capital. Mild climate and comfortable environment turned out to be preferable, although the richest centres of oil and gas production in the north are actively attracting migrants. Improved access to the Internet and further digitalization can reduce migration, which may be related to the prospects of remote work. High scientific and educational potential is significant, but only attracting students is not enough, as they will leave a region after graduation. In conclusion, we offered some non-trivial policy recommendations based on the identified factors and considering the new pandemic reality: high-tech cluster development, proactive scientific and entrepreneurial policy, and measures to improve urban environment in the largest agglomerations and southern regions.

Objectives: The aim of the study is to determine the scale of interregional migrating patients’ hospitalizations in Poland in 2013–2017, as well as their demographic and medical factors, total costs and time changes. Material and methods: Data from the NHF (National Health Fund) regarding hospitalizations in a given province of patients registered in another province in Poland in 2013–2017 were statistically analyzed. Times series analyses as well as coefficients of correlation, determination and variation were used. Results: The number of patients hospitalized outside their regional registration and the cost of their hospitalization increased from year-to-year during 2013–2017. There was a large variation in provinces in terms of inflow of patients and costs of their hospitalization, while there was only a small variation in terms of outflow of patients and costs of their hospitalization in the analyzed years. Among the patients hospitalized outside the province where they were registered, there were more women then men, while the age group was dominated by 60-year-olds and their share in the subsequent years increased, while the share of other age groups remained unchanged or decreased. The most and increasingly more from year-to-year hospitalizations outside the regional registration were due to neoplasms and diseases of the circulatory system. Conclusions: The results of the study may significantly contribute to the proper planning of securing the health needs of the inhabitants of particular regions, and to improving the quality and economic efficiency of health services in individual NHF branches.

The article considers the migration mobility in the regions of Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East. The purpose of the study is to analyze and characterize the migration mobility of the population of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and the Far Eastern Federal District (EFD) as well as to identify the interregional migration factors that determine the geography of its directions. The main hypothesis of the study is that interregional differences in the social and economic development of regions play a primary role in the formation of the repulsive and attractive factors of migration. We used statistical analysis and mathematical methods, as well as their geographical visualization. We have analyzed data from the Rosstat databases and have shown that migration losses in the SFD regions are significantly higher than in FEFD. However, for FEFD, these losses are more significant. Therefore, poorly populated and depressive regions deserve special attention. In these regions, even minimal migration losses considerably increase socio-demographic risks. We revealed that the indigenous population prevail in these territories. At the same time, the increasing territorial mobility of native inhabitants is observed. In most of the regions, there is a low migrant’s adaptation level. We have proposed the authors’ approach to the study of migration repulsive and attractive factors. It is based on the integration of the methods of multidimensional cluster analysis and geo-information analysis. This approach has allowed to classify the Russian regions in terms of their migration attractiveness as well as to show the geography of the prevailing migration movements for each region of SFD and FEFD. The results of the study have confirmed the dependence of migration mobility on the quality of life in different regions. These data may be applied to elaborate mechanisms for an effective policy of regional socio-economic development in the country. The promising direction for the further research is the application of our method at the municipal level. It may allow structuring regional economic spaces depending on the growth poles and the periphery.

This study develops a theoretical concept of how regional cultural values develop, manifest, and become visible in regional images. Moreover, it tests the impact of regional images on attracting interregional migrants. Specifically, we test whether the values held by inhabitants of particular regions can explain variances in intra-country migration. Analyses are conducted on data collected from official statistics and from the European Social Survey on the level of European NUTS 2 regions. Cultural values are measured using a selection of items from the Human Value Scale developed by Shalom Schwartz. Analyses show that independent from unemployment rates, economic prosperity, and the degree of urbanization, net migration rates are dependent upon the cultural values held by the inhabitants of a region. Individuals are more likely to migrate to regions where inhabitants adopt hedonistic values and a certain degree of 'social indifference'.

This paper offers new insights into the social changes that took place in the Mirabello Gulf in eastern Crete during the Middle Minoan (MM) period (ca. 1900-1700 BC). The most significant change appears to have been the transformation of society from localised chiefdoms to decentralised states for the first time in Greek prehistory, and the archaeological finds from the Mirabello area demonstrate that change. Specifically, the newly examined ceramic material from the site of Mochlos furthers our understanding of this transformation, and is discussed here alongside two other factors that also contributed to the development of states: the population increase and the introduction of the potters’ wheel. The production, distribution and consumption of ceramic material in the Mirabello Gulf demonstrates cultural, economic, and social bonds between sites within the region. The introduction of new standardised ceramic shapes, either local or imported, depicts the common production and consumption habits of a unified socio-cultural regional landscape. Considering the new evidence from the perspective of transitions, this paper discusses the transformation in production technology, as well as in decorative schemata in drinking and storage wares like cups and jars from Mochlos as they relate to other changes taking place in the Mirabello region during this period. It also gives a glimpse of how this transition affected the cultural and economic life of the settlement, such as the intensification of local pottery production, and its relation to the centre’s trends, and offers insight about how a primary material can enrich the present model of a new state level society.

This study focuses on the rationality of the migrants’ behaviour. We hypothesise that the migration growth rate depends on the territory attractiveness for living. The rational behaviour is defined as the direct dependence of the migrations on the characteristics of the territory attractiveness. The irrational behaviour means that the reverse dependence is present. The direct dependence is recognised if the level of the migrants’ positive reactions to the factors of the territory attractiveness is no less than 30 % from the maximum. 83 subjects of the Russian Federation were clustered based on 12 objective characteristics of the life’s quality. We distinguished the largest Middle Cluster, which includes 56 regions. Further we transformed the panel data for the period from 2005 to 2015 into the array of the coefficients of correlations between the characteristics of the territory attractiveness and the migration growth rates in the regions. Using these characteristics, the regions were clustered again. The regional types of the Middle cluster with the rational and irrational behaviours include 22 regions each. The level of the migrants’ positive reactions to the factors of the territory attractiveness is 44.1 % for the first (rational) regional type and 42.5 % for the second (irrational) type. The regional type with the indifferent behaviour includes 12 regions. The level of the migrants’ reactions to the characteristics of these territory attractiveness is just 5.8 %. Based on the regression models of the migration coefficient for each cluster type, we have provided recommendations for managing the migration flows using the differential approach.