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The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the 2022 IPCC Report (AR6) provides an updated global assessment of the climate change mitigation process in terms of developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, and an assessment of the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals. New additions are chapters on the social aspects of mitigation and on innovation, technology development and transfer. One of the key messages of the Report is that accelerated and equitable climate action in climate change mitigation and adaptation is critical to sustainable development, with synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs and mitigation and adaptation options highlighted, making connections with the AR6 WGII report. A well-resourced just transition is core to shifting South Africa's development pathway to increased sustainability, and fostering climate-resilience and low GHG emissions.

Climate change presents significant risks to marginalized communities, particularly in tribal groups like the Bhil and Bhilala communities of Madhya Pradesh, India. Limited empirical studies have focused on the effects of climate change on tribes in India. This study aims to assess climate change risk and vulnerability among tribal communities, employing the modified Mann–Kendall ( MMK ) test to identify climate trends, a risk assessment framework based on the Intergovernmental panel on climate change sixth assessment report ( IPCC-AR6 ), and multiple linear regression ( MLR ). The MMK test indicates an increasing trend in rainfall ( MMK  = 1.099) and temperature. However, household perceptions reveal a high awareness of climatic changes, with 97% of respondents reporting irregularity in rainfall and 98% documenting increased summer hot days. The risk assessment shows that Bhil households face higher risk (0.107) than Bhilala households (0.068), which is determined by higher exposure and sensitivity. MLR results further emphasize that 12 of 23 indicators significantly affect risk assessment (R-squared = 0.698), with climatic events ( β  = 0.015), housing structure ( β  = 0.07), and food security being key contributors. The findings indicate that long-term climate trends are already affecting tribal livelihoods. It calls for targeted adaptation strategies, incorporating enhanced infrastructure, crop diversification, and better access to climate information and government schemes.

The first two leading modes of the North Pacific atmospheric variability, the Aleutian Low (AL) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), in boreal winter and their relations to the North American and Eurasian surface temperature, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Victoria Mode (VM) are explored in 20 coupled climate models which participated in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The historical simulations of these models can well reproduce spatial structures and amplitudes of the winter AL and NPO, as well as their associations with North American and Eurasian surface air temperatures. The close connections of the winter AL with ENSO and PDO, as well as the linkage between the NPO and VM could also be well simulated. However, most of the models lack the capability in simulating the impact of the winter ENSO on the NPO. This deficiency is mainly attributed to westward shifts of the ENSO-related sea surface temperature and precipitation anomalies in the tropics and ENSO-induced atmospheric teleconnections over the North Pacific in the models. Spread in the ENSO’s amplitude also contributes partly to the diversity of the ENSO–NPO relation among the models. Under the SSP2-RCP4.5 forced climate change projection, projected changes in the amplitudes and centers of the AL and NPO exhibit large uncertainties across the 20 models. The close connections of the AL with ENSO and PDO, and the NPO with VM are still robust in the warming climate. Most models project an increase (a decrease) in the AL–PDO (NPO–VM) relationship. However, there exists a large uncertainty in the projected changes of the AL–ENSO relationship, which is partly attributed to the large divergence in the projected changes of the ENSO’s amplitude among the models.

The Working Group III (WGIII) contribution to the 2022 IPCC Report (AR6) provides an updated global assessment of the climate change mitigation process in terms of developments in emission reduction and mitigation efforts, and an assessment of the impact of national climate pledges in relation to long-term emissions goals. New additions are chapters on the social aspects of mitigation and on innovation, technology development and transfer. One of the key messages of the Report is that accelerated and equitable climate action in climate change mitigation and adaptation is critical to sustainable development, with synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs and mitigation and adaptation options highlighted, making connections with the AR6 WGII report. A well-resourced just transition is core to shifting South Africa's development pathway to increased sustainability, and fostering climate-resilience and low GHG emissions.

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity as many species are facing the risk of extinction due to their inability to adapt to the changes in temperature, precipitation, and other environmental variables. The impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of Taxus wallichiana, a medicinally important endangered tree species, has not been studied specifically for the Indian Himalayan region (IHR). We assessed the vulnerability of the species to climate change using Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) in conjunction with two latest global climate models (GCMs) viz., HadGEM3-GC31-LL and IPSL-CM6A-LR, under two future scenarios i.e. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) - SSP126 and SSP585 from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, 2023. Based on current distribution of the species and bioclimatic conditions., the Maxent-derived projections indicated significant reduction in its suitable habitat in IHR. Under the moderate scenario i.e. SSP126, suitable habitats are expected to decrease to 6,313,494 ha (10.62% of the total geographical area of IHR) with HadGEM3-GC31-LL and to 4,161,437 ha (7.00%) with IPSL-CM6A-LR from the present distribution area of 8,132,637 ha (13.68%). Under high-emission SSP585 scenario, the predicted habitat area is expected to decline to 4,833,212 ha (8.13%) with HadGEM3-GC31-LL and to 3,204,306 ha (5.39%) with IPSL-CM6A-LR.Annual mean temperature, isothermality, and annual precipitation were important environmental variables impacting the species distribution and models’ predictive capacity. The model outputs clearly predict a gloomy picture under both the future climate scenarios for T. wallichiana emphasizing the need for a targeted conservation effort for the species. .

In a warming climate, drought events are projected to increase in many regions across the world, which would have detrimental impacts on water resources for agriculture activity and human life. Thus, projecting drought changes, especially the frequency of future drought events, is very important for the African continent. This study investigates the future changes in drought events based on the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM6) model in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) datasets for four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5; and three time slices: near future (2020–2039), mid-century (2050–2069), and end-of-century (2080–2099), relative to a historical baseline period (1995–2014). The interannual variability and trends of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on the Penman–Monteith methods for measuring potential evapotranspiration (PET) are used to estimate future droughts. The temporal analysis shows that the drought frequency, intensity, and affected area will increase throughout the 21st century. Among the scenarios, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 project a larger upward trend in drought characteristics than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. The spatial pattern shows drought frequency decreases in humid regions and increases in non-humid regions across Africa. For all SSP scenarios, the projected wetting trend per decade ranges from 0.05 to 0.25, while the drying trend per decade ranges from −0.05 to 0.25. A regional trend analysis revealed key differences in spatial pattern, with varied trend projections of wetter and drier conditions in humid and non-humid regions under all SSP scenarios. Drier conditions are expected to intensify in Southern Africa under all SSP scenarios but are projected to be more intense under either SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. In general, the projected wetter trends in humid areas may favor agricultural production and ecological conservation, and drier trends in non-humid regions may call for the possible adoption of tailor-made drought adaptation strategies and development programmes to minimize impacts.

This study, based on global AERONET observation data from 2023, employs a synergistic inversion algorithm that integrates aerosol optical, microphysical, and chemical properties to retrieve the global distribution of aerosol parameters. We find that the global annual mean aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine-mode AOD (AODf), coarse-mode AOD (AODc), absorbing aerosol optical depth (AAOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) are 0.20, 0.15, 0.04, 0.024, and 0.87, respectively. From the perspective of spatial distribution, in densely populated urban areas, AOD is mainly determined by AODf, while in the areas dominated by natural sources, AODc contributes more. Combined with the optical and microphysical properties, fine-mode aerosols dominate optical contributions, whereas coarse-mode aerosols dominate volume contributions. In terms of chemical components, fine-mode aerosols at most global sites are primarily carbonaceous. The mass concentrations of black carbon (BC) exceed 10 mg m−2 in parts of South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Arabian Peninsula, while the mass fraction of brown carbon (BrC) accounts for more than 16% in regions such as the Sahara, Western Africa, and the North Atlantic Ocean reference areas. The dust (DU) dominates in coarse mode, with the annual mean DU fraction reaching 86.07% in the Sahara. In coastal and humid regions, the sea salt (SS) and water content (AWc) contribute significantly to the aerosol mass, with fractions reaching 13.13% and 34.39%. The comparison of aerosol properties in the hemispheres reveals that the aerosol loading in the Northern Hemisphere caused by human activities is higher than in the Southern Hemisphere, and the absorption properties are also stronger. We also find that the uneven distribution of global observation sites leads to a significant underestimation of aerosol absorption and coarse-mode features in global mean values, highlighting the adverse impact of observational imbalance on the assessment of global aerosol properties. By combining analyses of aerosol optical, microphysical, and chemical properties, our study offers a quantitative foundation for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of global aerosols and their emission contributions, providing valuable insights for climate change assessment and air quality research.

AR6 IPCC reports give divergent messages about the different socio-economic transition approaches to deal with the current climate emergency. The dangers of not giving a clear message to policymakers and to society on the need of changing the current socio-economic paradigm are considerable: to fall in the SSP3-7.0 scenario, which is conducive to the collapse of our current civilization. In this work, key variables to assess the main functionalities of global socio-economy are analyzed under a system dynamics approach. This allows for understanding what the evolution is of our current socio-economy in a framework of climate change and resource depletion. The aim of this work is to provide a different perspective on socio-economic evolution by identifying similar characteristics in the worst-case IPCC scenarios with historical behavior in complex societies. From such a historical perspective and the current system evolution, a conceptual model is proposed to explain our globalized complex system near to a phase transition. Then, phase transition correspondences from the model to the current socio-economic system are proposed and a series of corresponding preventive measures (in terms of social actions, economic measures, and their linked policies) are suggested to avoid collapse scenarios.

This paper presents a comprehensive river discharge analysis to estimate past and future hydrological extremes across Morocco. Hydrological simulations with historical forcing and climate change scenario inputs have been performed to better understand the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme discharge events that cause flooding. Simulations are applied to all major rivers of Morocco, including a total of 16 basins that cover the majority of the country. An ensemble of temperature and precipitation input parameter sets was generated to analyze input uncertainty, an approach that can be extended to other regions of the world, including data-sparse regions. Parameter uncertainty was also included in the analyses. Historical simulations comprise the period 1979–2021, while future simulations (2015–2100) were performed under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. Clear patterns of changing flood extremes are projected; these changes are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area of the country. Two types of basins have been identified, based on their different behavior in climate change scenarios. In the Northern/Mediterranean basins we observe a decrease in the frequency and intensity of events by 2050 under both SSPs, whereas for the remaining catchments higher and more frequent high-flow events in the form of flash floods are detected. Our analysis revealed that this is a consequence of the reduction in rainfall accumulation and intensity in both SSPs for the first type of basins, while the opposite applies to the other type. More generally, we propose a methodology that does not rely on observed time series of discharge, so especially for regions where those do not exist or are not available, and that can be applied to undertake future flood projections in the most data-scarce regions. This method allows future hydrological hazards to be estimated for essentially any region of the world.