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Significance Correct probabilistic evaluations are one of the hallmarks of rationality. Is the human ability to make them dependent on formal education, or does it emerge regardless of instruction and culture? This paper shows that preliterate and prenumerate Mayan adults are able to solve a variety of probabilistic problems. These individuals correctly use prior and posterior information, proportions and elementary combinatorial procedures to predict the occurrence of random outcomes. And they perform like Mayan school children and Western controls. The finding that adults with no formal education are able to make suitable predictions indicates that, regardless of schooling and culture, the human mind possesses a basic probabilistic knowledge. Is there a sense of chance shared by all individuals, regardless of their schooling or culture? To test whether the ability to make correct probabilistic evaluations depends on educational and cultural guidance, we investigated probabilistic cognition in preliterate and prenumerate Kaqchikel and K’iche’, two indigenous Mayan groups, living in remote areas of Guatemala. Although the tested individuals had no formal education, they performed correctly in tasks in which they had to consider prior and posterior information, proportions and combinations of possibilities. Their performance was indistinguishable from that of Mayan school children and Western controls. Our results provide evidence for the universal nature of probabilistic cognition.

This symposium takes as its point of departure two books by Massimo Livi Bacci, Conquest and El Dorado in the Marshes, published in English in 2008 and 2010. Livi Bacci assesses widely varying estimates of the demographic dimensions of the collapse of the native populations following their contact with Europeans and elucidates the proximate causes of that catastrophe. Drawing on models that combine production potential with demography, environment, and technology, Shripad Tuljapurkar discusses analogous historical experiences of the populations of Polynesia and the social transformation they entailed. David S. Reher argues that explanations of the estimated demographic dynamics need to take into account the negative fertility responses of the indigenous population to the disruption of their traditional way of life. Focusing on the biological aspects of immunity to diseases such as smallpox, Andrew Noymer demonstrates that infectious diseases alone could not account for the Indios' population collapse. The contributions to this symposium are based on presentations at a session at the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, held in Dallas, Texas, that examined the demographic consequences of the Spanish Conquest of the Caribbean region and of South America in light of the two books.

Background Indigenous cultures are the result of their adaptation to the natural surroundings, in such a way that, amongst their main features is a set of knowledge, technologies and strategies for the appropriation of nature. In Cuetzalan del Progreso, Puebla, Mexico snakes represent 71.1% of the total local herpetofauna; and in addition to this, different groups of Nahuas have shown to have information of their use of various snake species in many ways. This study was conducted to investigate the traditional uses of snakes in this cultural group. Methods Formal and informal interviews were conducted with the inhabitants of the communities. During these interviews, 30 images of the different species of snakes present in the area were presented to the subjects, so that they would recognize them and reveal information about the knowledge they possess on them. A usage analysis was applied to each species considering the following categories: food purposes, medicinal, artisanal and magical-religious. Likewise, the frequency, the diversity and the value of use was estimated for these snakes. Results A total of 51 interviews were carried out. The individuals recognized 18 out of 30 images of snakes that were presented. The total of usage categories was five; we found that the magic-religious use was the most mentioned by 32 personas. Boa imperator and Antropoides nummifer were the species with the highest value of use. More than half of the interviewees mentioned killing snakes because they’re poisonous and aggressive. In the magic-religious aspect the “Danza de los Negritos” is highlighted; this is a local festival, brought by Africans, and alludes to snakes. Conclusions This study revealed that snakes are still very important for the culture in Cuetzalan del Progreso, finding that the magical-religious and the medicinal use stand out. On the other hand, the fear and misperception on the toxicity of snakes might represent a potential threat for their conservation. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out a long-term monitoring of the ethno-zoological activities, and develop a sustainable management plan compatible with the cultural characteristics of the natives of the region.

To identify if the selection of mixed sexual partners and the existence of concurrent partners are predictors of condom use in indigenous migrant agricultural workers from Colima, Mexico. Analytical cross-sectional study using an egocentric sexual network approach. Community interviewers applied a structured questionnaire to 192 indigenous migrant workers in a sugarcane agro-industrial context. Data were analyzed with binary logistic regression; odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI 95%) were estimated. In the logistic regression model, adjusted odds (OR; 95% CI) of steady condom use were lower within partnerships of the same indigenous ethnicity compared to other partnerships (0.30; 0.17-0.53), partnerships that were concurrent to other partnerships (0.27; 0.15-0.50), and partnerships that used illegal drugs during sex to other partnerships (0.23; 0.11-0.49). Those variables were actually associated with increased risk of unprotected sex (occasionally or never using condoms), and therefore exposures were unprotected. Sexual partners of the same ethnicity, concurrent partnerships and partnerships that use illegal drugs favor the low frequency of constant condom use and, in turn, the vulnerability to STIs and HIV transmission in indigenous migrant agricultural workers.

Despite the high prevalence of diabetes in rural Guatemala, there is little education in diabetes self-management, particularly among the indigenous population. To address this need, a culturally relevant education intervention for diabetic patients was developed and implemented in two rural communities in Guatemala. An evaluative research project was designed to investigate if the structured, communityled diabetes self-management intervention improved selected health outcomes for participants. A one-group, pretest–posttest design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the educational intervention by comparing measures of health, knowledge, and behavior in patients pre- and postintervention. A survey instrument assessed health beliefs and practices and hemoglobin A1c (HgA1c) measured blood glucose levels at baseline and 4 months post initiation of intervention (n = 52). There was a significant decrease (1.2%) in the main outcome measure, mean HgA1c from baseline (10.1%) and follow-up (8.9%; p = .001). Other survey findings were not statistically significant. This study illustrates that a culturally specific, diabetes self-management program led by community health workers may reduce HgA1c levels in rural populations of Guatemala. However, as a random sample was not feasible for this study, this finding should be interpreted with caution. Limitations unique to the setting and patient population are discussed in this article.

We examine the extent to which social networks among indigenous peoples in Mexico have a significant effect on a variety of human capital investment and economic activities, such as school attendance and work among teenage boys and girls, and migration, welfare participation, employment status, occupation, and sector of employment among adult males and females. Using data from the 10 percent population sample of the 2000 Population and Housing Census of Mexico and the empirical strategy that Bertrand, Luttmer, and Mullainathan (2000) propose, which allows us to take into account the role of municipality and language group fixed effects, we confirm empirically that social network effects play an important role in the economic decisions of indigenous people, especially in rural areas. Our analysis also provides evidence that better access to basic services such as water and electricity increases the size and strength of network effects in rural areas. Investigamos hasta qué punto las redes sociales entre pueblos indígenas tienen un efecto significativo para una variedad de inversiones de capital humano y de actividades económicas, tal como la asistencia escolar y el trabajo entre niños y niñas adolescentes, y la migración, la participación a prestaciones sociales, la situación laboral, la profesión y el sector laboral entre adultos de sexo masculino y femenino. Utilizando datos de la muestra del 10 por ciento del Censo de Población y Vivienda 2000 de México y la estrategia empírica propuesta por Bertrand y otros (2000) que nos permite tener en cuenta el papel de efectos fijos de municipio y grupo de lenguaje, confirmamos empíricamente que los efectos de redes sociales juegan un papel importante en las decisiones económicas de personas indígenas, especialmente en zonas rurales. Nuestro análisis también proporciona pruebas de que un mejor acceso a los servicios básicos como el agua y la electricidad aumentan el tamaño y la fuerza de los efectos de redes en zonas rurales.