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Hydrological responses corresponding to the agricultural land use alterations are critical for planning crop management strategies, water resources management, and environmental evaluations. However, accurate estimation and evaluation of these hydrological responses are restricted by the limited availability of detailed crop classification in land use and land cover. An innovative approach using state-of-the-art Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is utilized by setting up the crop-specific vegetation parameterization and analyse the effect of uniform and heterogeneous agricultural land use over the hydrological responses of the basin, in the Kangsabati River Basin (KRB). Thirteen year simulations (1998–2010) based on two different scenarios i.e., single-crop in agricultural land use (SC-ALU) and multi-crop in agricultural land use (MC-ALU) patterns are incorporated in the model and calibrated (1998–2006) and validated (2007–2010) for the streamflow at Reservoir and Mohanpur in the KRB. The results demonstrated that the VIC model improved the estimates of hydrological components, especially surface runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) at daily and monthly timescales corresponding to MC-ALU than SC-ALU (NSC > 0.7). Grid-scale ET estimates are improved after incorporating heterogeneous agricultural land use (NSC > 0.55 and R2 > 0.55) throughout the period of 1998–2010. This study improves our understanding on how the change in agricultural land use in the model settings alters the basin hydrological characteristics, and to provide model-based approaches for best management practices in irrigation scheduling, crop water requirement, and management strategies in the absence of flux towers, eddy covariance, and lysimeters in the basin.

Flood is among the deadliest disasters in India, and the frequency of floods and extreme precipitation events is projected to increase under the warming climate. The frequency of floods in India varies geographically as some regions are more prone to floods than the others. The Kerala flood of 2018 caused enormous economic damage, affected millions of people, and resulted in the death of more than 400 people. Here we provide a hydro-climatological perspective on the Kerala flood of 2018. Using the observations and model simulations from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, we show that the 2018 extreme precipitation and runoff conditions that caused flooding were unprecedented in the record of the past 66 years (1951-2017). Our results show that mean monsoon precipitation has significantly declined while air temperature has significantly increased during 1951-2017 in Kerala. The drying and warming trends during the monsoon season resulted in a declined total runoff in large part of the state in the last 66 years. Apart from the mean hydroclimatic conditions, extreme precipitation, and extreme total runoff have also declined from 1951 to 2017. However, 1 and 2-day extreme precipitation and extreme runoff conditions in August 2018 exceeded substantially from the long-term 95th percentiles recorded during 1951-2017. Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage.

The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.

PurposeTo control the severe soil and water losses on the Loess Plateau, China, a series of vegetation restoration projects were conducted. A better understanding of the effect of vegetation types on the soil infiltration capacity is important for the sustainable development of vegetation restoration. The aim of this study was to establish a soil infiltration capacity index (SIC) and to analyze the mechanism influencing variations in the soil infiltration capacity after vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau.Materials and methodsEight vegetation types (community dominated by Artemisia scoparia, Stipa bungeana, Artemisia gmelinii + S. bungeana, A. gmelinii + Stipa grandis, A. gmelinii + Artemisia giraldii, Sophora viciifolia, Caragana korshinskii, and Robinia pseudoacacia) and bare land as the control were selected for this study. The SIC was established by a steady infiltration rate (SR, 50–60 min) and stage I average infiltration rate (ARSI, 0–5 min) according to principal component analysis (PCA). Path analysis was used to investigate how the soil properties and plant fine root affected the soil infiltration capacity.Results and discussionThe SIC values of the eight vegetation types were all higher than that of the bare land. The R. pseudoacacia community had the highest SIC value (0.43), followed by the A. scoparia community (0.30) while the bare land (− 0.56) had the lowest value. Path analysis showed that the increase in the fractal dimension and non-capillary porosity of soil particles enhanced the SIC directly. Increases in the clay content increased the SIC by affecting the fractal dimension of soil particles, while increases in the fine root density reduced the SIC by affecting the non-capillary porosity. Plant functional groups (grasses and legumes) affected SIC indirectly via non-capillary porosity and plant root.ConclusionsA comprehensive index, the SIC, was established to describe the soil infiltration capacity by the PCA method. Based on a comparison with bare land, vegetation restoration enhanced the soil infiltration capacity. The R. pseudoacacia community was the most effective at improving the soil infiltration capacity. The improvement in infiltration was closely related to direct increases in the soil non-capillary porosity and soil particle fractal dimension.

Watershed degradation due to invasion threatens downstream water flows and associated ecosystem services. While this topic has been studied across landscapes that have undergone invasive-driven state changes (e.g., native forest to invaded grassland), it is less well understood in ecosystems experiencing within-system invasion (e.g. native forest to invaded forest). To address this subject, we conducted an integrated ecological and ecohydrological study in tropical forests impacted by invasive plants and animals. We measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest site pairs along moisture and substrate age gradients across Hawaii to explore the effects of invasion on hydrological processes within tropical forests. We also characterized forest composition, structure and soil characteristics at these sites to assess the direct and vegetation-mediated impacts of invasive species on infiltration capacity. Our models show that invasive ungulates negatively affect soil infiltration capacity consistently across the wide moisture and substrate age gradients considered. Additionally, several soil characteristics known to be affected by invasive ungulates were associated with local infiltration rates, indicating that the long-term secondary effects of high ungulate densities in tropical forests may be stronger than effects observed in this study. The effect of invasive plants on infiltration was complex and likely to depend on their physiognomy within existing forest community structure. These results provide clear evidence for managers that invasive ungulate control efforts can improve ecohydrological function of mesic and wet forest systems critical to protecting downstream and nearshore resources and maintaining groundwater recharge.

This study aimed to statistically and hydrologically assess the performance of the four latest and widely used satellite–gauge combined precipitation estimates (SGPEs), namely CRT (CMORPH CRT), BLD (CMORPH BLD), CDR (PERSIANN CDR), 3B42 (TMPA 3B42 version 7) over the upper yellow river basins (UYRB) in china during 2001–2012 time period. The performances of the SGPEs were compared with the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) datasets using the hydrologic model called Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) which is known as a land surface hydrologic model. Results indicated that irrespective of the slight underestimation in the western mountains and overestimation in the southeast, the four SGPEs could generally captured the spatial distribution of precipitation well. Although 3B42 exhibited a better performance in capturing the spatial distribution of daily average precipitation, BLD agreed best with CMA in the time series of watershed average precipitation, which resulted in BLD having a comparable performance to the CMA in the long-term hydrological simulations. Moreover, the potential for disastrous heavy rain mainly occurs in southeastern corner of the basin, and CRT and BLD comparisons showed to be closer to the CMA in the distribution of extreme precipitation events while 3B42 and CDR overestimated the extreme precipitation especially over the southeast of UYRB region. Therefore, CRT and BLD were able to match the high peak discharges very well for the wet seasons, while 3B42 and CDR overrated the high peak discharges. In addition, the four SGPEs performed well for the 2005 flood event but exhibited poorly when tested for the 2012 flood event. Results indicate that the application of the four SGPEs should be used with caution in simulating massive flood events over UYRB region.

Short-term concurrent droughts and heatwaves accompanied by high temperatures and low soil moisture (or low precipitation) may significantly impact ecosystems, societies, and economies although the individual events involved may not themselves represent severe extremes. There is little known about the potential frequency of short-term concurrent droughts and heatwaves in the future. Here, we use the Gan River Basin as a case study area to assess the effects of different warming levels on drought and heatwave concurrences based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The results show that the VIC model has high reliability in the simulation of soil moisture and evapotranspiration compared with other well-recognized datasets in the Gan River Basin. The warming level over the Gan River Basin is close to the global warming level. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the multi-model ensemble medians of concurrent events increased by 0.08–0.4 pentads/decade from 2006 to 2099. The uncertainty of concurrent events encompasses a wider range as global temperature increases. Compared to the reference period (1961–2005), drought and heatwave concurrences have increased by more than 50% in the most parts of the basin under 1.5 or 2.0 °C of global warming; there is a 20% frequency difference of 0.5 °C from 1.5 to 2.0 °C. The substantial pentad increases (at least greater than 50%) existed in historical low-pentad-value areas in a 1.5 or 2.0 °C world, especially pronounced for a 2.0 °C world. The greatest increase in concurrent event pentads came from the 25th percentile values in 1.5 or 2.0 °C scenarios. Climatological median pentads of concurrent droughts and heatwaves appear likely to be 9.6–17.6% more frequent in a 2.0 °C world than a 1.5 °C world with respect to the reference period.

The general circulation models (GCMs) and emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) have proven to be significantly functional in evaluating the impacts of climate change (CC) on hydrology, although their performance and accuracy varies on a regional scale. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the performance of five CMIP5 GCMs (CanESM2, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR) on a regional scale in the West Flowing River Basins-2 (WFRB-2) in India to model the impact of CC and its scenario uncertainty using reliability ensemble average (REA) method. For quantifying the results, the upper, middle and lower regions of WFRB-2 are separately analysed. The MPIMR and MPILR GCM model shows highest reliability factor range (0.3–0.6) in predicting the annual mean and annual maximum rainfall for most of the grids in the region. The GCM-simulated runoff using VIC (variable infiltration capacity) model is evaluated using statistical parameters such as root mean square error (RMSE), percentage bias (Pbias) and standard deviation (Std). The annual mean (maximum) runoff obtained using REA ensemble shows least RMSE, Pbias and Std values, i.e. 21.08%, 9.10 mm and 8.9 mm (6%, 39.1 mm, 39.1 mm), respectively for the middle region, which demonstrates higher reliability of GCM outputs in the flood-prone regions of WFRB-2. Furthermore, the future projection of annual maximum rainfall/runoff shows an increase of 50 mm/15 mm in the near future (2011–2040) for lower and 20 mm/6 mm for middle regions, which may cause flooding activities in the lower and middle region of WFRB-2.

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

Fenced enclosures, a proven strategy for restoring degraded grassland, have been widely implemented. However, recent climate trends of warming and drying, accompanied by increased extreme rainfall, have heightened soil erosion risks. It is crucial to assess the long-term effectiveness of fenced enclosures on grassland restoration and their impact on soil physicochemical properties and water infiltration capacity. This study investigated the effects of enclosure duration on soil organic matter, aggregate composition and stability, and infiltration capacity in Yunwu Mountain Grassland Nature Reserve, comparing grasslands with enclosure durations of 2, 14, 30, and 39 years. Results showed that grasslands enclosed for 14, 30, and 39 years had infiltration rates increased by 20.66%, 152.03%, and 61.19%, respectively, compared to those enclosed for only 2 years. After 30 years of enclosure, soil quality reached its optimum, with the highest root biomass, soil organic matter, aggregate stability, and a notably superior infiltration rate. The findings suggest that long-term fenced enclosures facilitate grassland vegetation restoration and enhance soil infiltration capacity, with the most significant improvement observed at the 30-year enclosure milestone, followed by a gradual decline in this effect.