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"Inflation (Economics)"
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After the great recession : the struggle for economic recovery and growth
\"The severity of the Great Recession and the subsequent stagnation caught many economists by surprise. But a group of Keynesian scholars warned for some years that strong forces were leading the US toward a deep, persistent downturn. This book collects essays about these events from prominent macroeconomists who developed a perspective that predicted the broad outline and many specific aspects of the crisis. From this point of view, the recovery of employment and revival of strong growth requires more than short-term monetary easing and temporary fiscal stimulus. Economists and policy makers need to explore how the process of demand formation failed after 2007 and where demand will come from going forward. Successive chapters address the sources and dynamics of demand, the distribution and growth of wages, the structure of finance and challenges from globalization, and inform recommendations for monetary and fiscal policies to achieve a more efficient and equitable society\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Technological progress, globalization and low-inflation: Evidence from the United States
Since the late 1990s, particularly since the global financial crisis, the core inflation of main developed economies' has been persistently below target. The factors hindering the achievement of inflation targets are nothing more than commodity price, oil supply, weakness of aggregate demand, and various other factors. In addition, technology and globalization have also played a significant role. This paper uses an extended hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model to quantify the contribution of technology and globalization variables to inflation in the United States (U.S.). The analysis suggests that technology and globalization well explain the low inflation dynamics in the U.S., as the impact of globalization on domestic inflation has been weakening over the past 20 years or so, while the impact of technology on inflation has been increasing. At present, technology exerts a greater role than globalization on low-inflation in the U.S.. This raises a different perspective for understanding the phenomenon of low inflation in the U.S. and other regions.
Journal Article
The downfall of money : Germany's hyperinflation and the destruction of the middle class
\"A hundred years ago, many theorists believed ... that the world had reached a state of economic perfection, a never-before-seen human interdependence that would lead to universal growth and prosperity. At the time, the German mark was one of the most trusted currencies in the world. Yet the early years of the Weimar Republic in Germany witnessed the most calamitous collapse of a developed economy in modern times. [This book explores] anew the dramatic story of the hyperinflation that saw the mark--worth 4.2 to the dollar in 1914--plunge until it traded at over 4 trillion to 1 by the autumn of 1923\"--Dust jacket flap.
Book
Who sells to whom in the suburbs? Home price inflation and the dynamics of sellers and buyers in the metropolitan region of Paris, 1996–2012
Price inflation has outbalanced the income of residents and buyers in major post-industrial city-regions, and real estate has become an important driver of these inequalities. In a context of a resilient inflation of home values during the last two decades in the greater Paris Region, it is critical to examine housing price dynamics to get a better understanding of socioeconomic segregation. This paper aims at presenting spatial analysis of the dynamics of segregation pertaining to inflation, analyzing price and sellers and buyers data. Using interpolation techniques and multivariate analysis, the paper presents a spatial analysis of property-level data from the Paris Chamber of Notaries (1996-2012) in a GIS (159,000 transactions in suburban areas, single family homes only). Multivariate analysis capture price change and local trajectories of occupational status, i.e. changes in balance between inward and outward flows of sellers and buyers. We adopt a method that fits the fragmented spatial patterns of suburbanization. To do so, we remove the spatial bias by means of a regular 1-km spatial grid, interpolating the variables within it, using a time-distance matrix. The main results are threefold. We document the spatial patterns of professionalization (a rise of executives, intermediate occupation and employees) to describe the main trends of inward mobility in property ownership in suburbs, offsetting the outward mobility of retired persons. Second, neighborhood trajectories are related the diverging patterns of appreciation, between local contexts of accumulation with a growth of residential prices, and suburbs with declining trends. The maturity of suburbanization yields a diversified structure of segregation between the social groups, that do not simply oppose executives vs. blue collar suburbs. A follow-up research agenda is finally outlined.
Journal Article
Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Demographic Variables, Expectation Formation, and Financial Literacy
When financial decisions have consequences beyond the immediate future, individuals' economic success may depend on their ability to forecast the rate of inflation. Higher inflation expectations have been reported by individuals who are female, poorer, single and less educated. Our results suggest that these demographic differences in inflation expectations may be partially explained by variations in expectation formation and financial literacy. Specifically, higher inflation expectations were reported by individuals who focused more on how to cover their future expenses and on prices they pay (rather than on the US inflation rate) and by individuals with lower financial literacy.
Journal Article
Economic crises, child mortality and the protective role of public health expenditure
The aim of the study was to analyze how economic crises affect child health globally and between subgroups of countries with different levels of income. Data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization were used for 127 countries between 1995 and 2014. A fixed effects model was used, evaluating the effect of the change on macroeconomic indicators (GDP per capita, unemployment and inflation rates and misery index) in neonatal, infant and under-five mortality rates. Moreover, we evaluated whether there was a change in the association effect according to the income of the countries and also analyzed the role of public health expenditure in this association. Evidence has shown that worse economic indicators (lower GDP per capita, higher inflation, unemployment rates and misery index) are associated with higher child mortality rates. In the subsamples by income strata, the same association is observed, but with effects of greater magnitude for low- and middle-income countries. We also verified that a higher percentage in public health expenditures alleviates the effects of economic indicators on child mortality rates. Thus, more attention needs to be paid to the harmful effects of the macroeconomic crises to ensure improvements in child health.
Journal Article
Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?
In this paper, we examine the effect of having an inflation targeting framework on the dispersion of inflation forecasts from professional forecasters. We use a panel data set of 25 countries—including 14 inflation targeters—with 16 years of monthly information. We find that the dispersion of longrun inflation expectations is smaller in targeting regimes after controlling for country-specific effects, time-specific effects, the level and the variance of inflation, disinflation periods, and global inflation. On average, the full effect is not observed until the third year after implementation of inflation targeting. When we differentiate between developed and developing countries, the dispersion of inflation expectations after inflation targeting is smaller and statistically significant only in developing countries.
Journal Article
How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
I consider some of the leading arguments for assigning an important role to tracking the growth of monetary aggregates when making decisions about monetary policy. First, I consider whether ignoring money means returning to the conceptual framework that allowed the high inflation of the 1970s. Second, I consider whether models of inflation determination with no role for money are incomplete, or inconsistent with elementary economic principles. Third, I consider the implications for monetary policy strategy of the empirical evidence for a long-run relationship between money growth and inflation. And fourth, I consider reasons why a monetary policy strategy based solely on short-run inflation forecasts derived from a Phillips curve may not be a reliable way of controlling inflation. I argue that none of these considerations provides a compelling reason to assign a prominent role to monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy.
Journal Article
Taylor’s rule, political cycle, and Latin America—An analysis of time series in search of responsibility for monetary stabilization
The decades before 1990 were dramatic for Latin American economies. However, from 1990 onwards, a set of policies followed by the various states in the region acheived economic stabilization with real income recovery. The attribution of this success has been disputed by politicians, economists and officials from international economic support institutions. This work will analyze the responsibility for this success in 4 economies in the region (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru). Through the combined analysis of ARDL, Markov states and structural breaks, we highlight different sources of responsibility in different periods. Additionally, detailing the states of each regime, we verify the duration of the regimes related to inflation rates and to interest rates in the region. We identify specific governments as associated with moments of economic stabilization in the region, so the hypothesis of the political cycle cannot be rejected for the set of results achieved. As policy implication, we claim that Taylor rules are endogenous to Political Budget Cycles and so stabilization plans are restricted to political tenures.
Journal Article
Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis
Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society's welfare and economic growth. However, determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a dataset covering around 100 countries for the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.
Journal Article