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\"Pandemics, Science and Policy examines the case study of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) representation and management of the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic. It analyses key criticisms made about the WHO's actions through an examination of the social context in which pandemic management decisions were made, and ultimately illustrations the various ways in which the WHO's account was vulnerable to contestation.Abeysinghe provides a persuasive account of the interplay between uncertain science and the creation of global policy. The book demonstrates that the fragility of the WHO's account and decisions largely lay in both the (lack of) scientific evidence the WHO received, and its use and representation of this evidence. Importantly, it shows how uncertain risks can affect policy and action on the global level\"--Provided by publisher.

Background. Experience from treating patients with Spanish influenza and influenza A(H5N1) suggested that convalescent plasma therapy might be beneficial. However, its efficacy in patients with severe pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus (H1N1 2009) infection remained unknown. Methods. During the period from 1 September 2009 through 30 June 2010, we conducted a prospective cohort study by recruiting patients aged ≥ 18 years with severe H1N1 2009 infection requiring intensive care. Patients were offered treatment with convalescent plasma with a neutralizing antibody titer of ≥1:160, harvested by apheresis from patients recovering from H1N1 2009 infection. Clinical outcome was compared with that of patients who declined plasma treatment as the untreated controls. Results. Ninety-three patients with severe H1N1 2009 infection requiring intensive care were recruited. Twenty patients (21.5%) received plasma treatment. The treatment and control groups were matched by age, sex, and disease severity scores. Mortality in the treatment group was significantly lower than in the nontreatment group (20.0% vs 54.8%; P = .01). Multivariate analysis showed that plasma treatment reduced mortality (odds ratio [OR], .20; 95% confidence interval [CI], .06-.69; P = .011), whereas complication of acute renal failure was independently associated with death (OR, 3.79; 95% CI, 1.15-12.4; P = .028). Subgroup analysis of 44 patients with serial respiratory tract viral load and cytokine level demonstrated that plasma treatment was associated with significantly lower day 3, 5, and 7 viral load, compared with the control group (P < .05). The corresponding temporal levels of interleukin 6, interleukin 10, and tumor necrosis factor α (P < .05) were also lower in the treatment group. Conclusions. Treatment of severe H1N1 2009 infection with convalescent plasma reduced respiratory tract viral load, serum cytokine response, and mortality.

Background The effect of corticosteroids on influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viral pneumonia patients remains controversial, and the impact of dosage has never been studied. Methods Using data of hospitalized adolescent and adult patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viral pneumonia, prospectively collected from 407 hospitals in mainland China, the effects of low‐to‐moderate‐dose (25‐150 mg d−1) and high‐dose (>150 mg d−1) corticosteroids on 30‐day mortality, 60‐day mortality, and nosocomial infection were assessed with multivariate Cox regression and propensity score‐matched case–control analysis. Results In total, 2141 patients (median age: 34 years; morality rate: 15.9%) were included. Among them, 1160 (54.2%) had PaO2/FiO2<300 mm Hg on admission, and 1055 (49.3%) received corticosteroids therapy. Corticosteroids, without consideration of dose, did not influence either 30‐day or 60‐day mortality. Further analysis revealed that, as compared with the no‐corticosteroid group, low‐to‐moderate‐dose corticosteroids were related to reduced 30‐day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64 [95% CI 0.43‐0.96, P=.033]). In the subgroup analysis among patients with PaO2/FiO2<300 mm Hg, low‐to‐moderate‐dose corticosteroid treatment significantly reduced both 30‐day mortality (aHR 0.49 [95% CI 0.32‐0.77]) and 60‐day mortality (aHR 0.51 [95% CI 0.33‐0.78]), while high‐dose corticosteroid therapy yielded no difference. For patients with PaO2/FiO2 ≥300 mm Hg, corticosteroids (irrespective of dose) showed no benefit and even increased 60‐day mortality (aHR 3.02 [95% CI 1.06‐8.58]). Results were similar in the propensity model analysis. Conclusions Low‐to‐moderate‐dose corticosteroids might reduce mortality of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viral pneumonia patients with PaO2/FiO2<300 mm Hg. Mild patients with PaO2/FiO2 ≥300 mm Hg could not benefit from corticosteroid therapy.

Several vaccines are approved in the United States for seasonal influenza vaccination every year. Here we compare the impact of repeat influenza vaccination on hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers, antibody binding and affinity maturation to individual hemagglutinin (HA) domains, HA1 and HA2, across vaccine platforms. Fold change in HI and antibody binding to HA1 trends higher for H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 but not against B strains in groups vaccinated with FluBlok compared with FluCelvax and Fluzone. Antibody-affinity maturation occurs against HA1 domain of H1N1pdm09, H3N2 and B following vaccination with all vaccine platforms, but not against H1N1pdm09-HA2. Importantly, prior year vaccination of subjects receiving repeat vaccinations demonstrated reduced antibody-affinity maturation to HA1 of all three influenza virus strains irrespective of the vaccine platform. This study identifies an important impact of repeat vaccination on antibody-affinity maturation following vaccination, which may contribute to lower vaccine effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in humans Here, Khurana et al. report the results of a phase 4 clinical trial with three FDA approved influenza vaccines and show that repeat influenza vaccination results in reduced antibody affinity maturation to hemagglutinin domain 1 irrespective of vaccine platform.

Since its identification in April 2009, an A(H1N1) virus containing a unique combination of gene segments from both North American and Eurasian swine lineages has continued to circulate in humans. The lack of similarity between the 2009 A(H1N1) virus and its nearest relatives indicates that its gene segments have been circulating undetected for an extended period. Its low genetic diversity suggests that the introduction into humans was a single event or multiple events of similar viruses. Molecular markers predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in 2009 A(H1N1) viruses, suggesting that previously unrecognized molecular determinants could be responsible for the transmission among humans. Antigenically the viruses are homogeneous and similar to North American swine A(H1N1) viruses but distinct from seasonal human A(H1N1).

Pandemic virus characterized Analysis of a series of clinical isolates of the swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus reveals that in mammalian models (mice, ferrets and macaques) the current pandemic virus is associated with more severe disease than a seasonal H1N1 strain. The viruses can also infect pigs but do not cause clinical signs. All antivirus drugs tested, including Tamiflu, were effective in cell culture against the new virus, lending support to the use of these compounds as a first line of defence against the pandemic. On 11 June 2009 the World Health Organization declared that the infections caused by a new strain of influenza A virus closely related to swine viruses had reached pandemic levels. Here, one of the first US isolates of the new swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus (S-OIV) is characterized, as well as several other S-OIV isolates, both in vitro and in vivo . Influenza A viruses cause recurrent outbreaks at local or global scale with potentially severe consequences for human health and the global economy. Recently, a new strain of influenza A virus was detected that causes disease in and transmits among humans, probably owing to little or no pre-existing immunity to the new strain. On 11 June 2009 the World Health Organization declared that the infections caused by the new strain had reached pandemic proportion. Characterized as an influenza A virus of the H1N1 subtype, the genomic segments of the new strain were most closely related to swine viruses 1 . Most human infections with swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses (S-OIVs) seem to be mild; however, a substantial number of hospitalized individuals do not have underlying health issues, attesting to the pathogenic potential of S-OIVs. To achieve a better assessment of the risk posed by the new virus, we characterized one of the first US S-OIV isolates, A/California/04/09 (H1N1; hereafter referred to as CA04), as well as several other S-OIV isolates, in vitro and in vivo . In mice and ferrets, CA04 and other S-OIV isolates tested replicate more efficiently than a currently circulating human H1N1 virus. In addition, CA04 replicates efficiently in non-human primates, causes more severe pathological lesions in the lungs of infected mice, ferrets and non-human primates than a currently circulating human H1N1 virus, and transmits among ferrets. In specific-pathogen-free miniature pigs, CA04 replicates without clinical symptoms. The assessment of human sera from different age groups suggests that infection with human H1N1 viruses antigenically closely related to viruses circulating in 1918 confers neutralizing antibody activity to CA04. Finally, we show that CA04 is sensitive to approved and experimental antiviral drugs, suggesting that these compounds could function as a first line of defence against the recently declared S-OIV pandemic.

Pretreatment with topical imiquimod, a synthetic agonist of toll-like receptor 7, significantly improved the immunogenicity of influenza vaccination in elderly people. We aimed to clarify its effect in a younger age group. In this double-blind, randomised controlled trial, we enrolled healthy volunteers aged 18–30 years in early 2014 to receive the 2013–14 northern-hemisphere winter trivalent influenza vaccine at the Queen Mary Hospital, (Hong Kong, China). Eligible participants were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) to one of the four vaccination groups: the study group, topical imiquimod-cream followed by intradermal trivalent influenza vaccine (INF-Q-ID), or one of three control groups, topical aqueous-cream control followed by intradermal trivalent influenza vaccine (INF-C-ID), topical aqueous-cream control followed by intramuscular trivalent influenza vaccine (INF-C-IM), and topical imiquimod-cream followed by intradermal normal-saline injection (SAL-Q-ID). Randomisation was by computer-generated lists in blocks of four. The type of topical treatment was masked from volunteers and investigators, although not from the study nurse. Serum haemagglutination-inhibition and microneutralisation-antibody titres were assayed. The primary outcome was seroconversion at day 7 after treatment for three vaccine strains of influenza (A/California/07/2009 H1N1-like virus [A/California/H1N1], A/Victoria/361/2011 H3N2-like virus [A/Victoria/H3N2], and B/Massachusetts/2/2012-like virus [B/Yamagata lineage]) and four non-vaccine strains (A/HK/485197/14 [H3N2 Switzerland-like lineage], prototype A/WSN/1933 [H1N1], A/HK/408027/09 [prepandemic seasonal H1N1], and B/HK/418078/11 [Victoria lineage]). Analysis was done on an intention-to-treat basis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02103023. We enrolled 160 healthy volunteers between March 1 and May 31, 2014, and 40 participants were randomly assigned to each study group. For the A/California/H1N1 strain, seroconversion at day 7 occurred in 39 participants (98%) in the INF-Q-ID group, 25 (63%) in the INF-C-ID group, 18 (45%) in the INF-C-IM group, and none in the SAL-Q-ID group; for the A/Victoria/H3N2, this was 30 (75%) in the INF-Q-ID group, four (10%) in the INF-C-ID group, four (10%) in the INF-C-IM group, and none in the SAL-Q-ID group; and for the B/Massachusetts (Yamagata lineage) strain, this was 36 (90%) in the INF-Q-ID group, 27 (68%) in the INF-C-ID group, 17 (43%) in the INF-C-IM group, and one (3%) in the SAL-Q-ID group (p<0·0001 for all three vaccine strains). Adverse reactions were infrequent and self-limited and did not differ between the four groups. Furthermore, the seroconversion rate against the four non-vaccine strains was better in the INF-Q-ID group than in the control groups on days 7 and 21 (p<0·0001). The most common adverse events were grade 1 redness (five participants in the INF-Q-ID group, three in INF-C-ID, one in INF-C-IM, and one in SAL-Q-ID) and grade 1 swelling (seven participants in INF-Q-ID group, five in INF-C-ID, three in INF-C-IM, and two in SAL-Q-ID. Topical application of imiquimod before intradermal trivalent influenza vaccine significantly improved immunogenicity against the vaccine influenza strains in young healthy individuals and increased immunogenicity against the non-vaccine strains, especially the antigenically drifted H3N2 strain of 2015, which was not included in the 2013–14 recommended vaccine. Further studies should be done to establish the efficacy and safety of this approach for other injectable vaccines to augment the onset and range of protection. The Shaw Foundation Hong Kong, Health and Medical Research Fund (Hong Kong, China), The Consultancy Service for Enhancing Laboratory Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Disease for the HKSAR (Department of Health, Hong Kong, China), The Providence Foundation, Respiratory Viral Research Foundation.

In 1918, a strain of influenza A virus caused a human pandemic resulting in the deaths of 50 million people. A century later, with the advent of sequencing technology and corresponding phylogenetic methods, we know much more about the origins, evolution and epidemiology of influenza epidemics. Here we review the history of avian influenza viruses through the lens of their genetic makeup: from their relationship to human pandemic viruses, starting with the 1918 H1N1 strain, through to the highly pathogenic epidemics in birds and zoonoses up to 2018. We describe the genesis of novel influenza A virus strains by reassortment and evolution in wild and domestic bird populations, as well as the role of wild bird migration in their long-range spread. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and the zoonotic incursions of avian H5 and H7 viruses into humans over the last couple of decades are also described. The threat of a new avian influenza virus causing a human pandemic is still present today, although control in domestic avian populations can minimize the risk to human health. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Background. Data on the efficacy of trivalent, inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) in HIV-infected adults, particularly in Africa, are limited. This study evaluated the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of TIV in HIV-infected adults. Methods. In Johannesburg, South Africa, we undertook a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 506 HIV-infected adults. Subjects included 157 individuals who were antiretroviral treatment (ART) naive and 349 on stable-ART. Participants were randomly assigned to receive TIV or normal saline intramuscularly. Oropharyngeal swabs were obtained at illness visits during the influenza season and tested by shell vial culture and RT PCR assay for influenza virus. Immune response was evaluated by hemagglutinin antibody inhibition assay (HAI) in a nested cohort. The primary study outcome involved vaccine efficacy against influenza confirmed illness. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00757900. Results. The efficacy of TIV against confirmed influenza illness was 75.5% (95% CI: 9.2%—95.6%); with a risk difference of 0.18 per 100 person-weeks in TIV recipients. Among TIV recipients, seroconversion, measured by HAI titers, was evident in 52.6% for H1N1, 60.8% for H3N2, and 53.6% for influenza B virus. This compared with 2.2%, 2.2%, and 4.4% of placebo recipients (P < .0001). The frequency of local and systemic adverse events postimmunization was similar between study groups. Conclusions. TIV immunization is safe and efficacious in African HIV-infected adults without underlying comorbidities. Further evaluation of effectiveness is warranted in severely immunocompromized HIV-infected adults and those with co-morbidities such as tuberculosis.

Only four mutations in H5N1 HA are required to enable ferret-to-ferret transmission of a reassortant virus containing the H5 HA and the remaining seven gene segments from a human pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. Elements involved in H5N1 transmission Whether avian H5N1 viruses can gain the ability to transmit between humans was uncertain. The viral haemagglutinin protein (HA) mediates virus binding to host-specific cellular receptors, but previous studies have shown that alterations in HA that enable binding to human-type receptors are not sufficient to enable respiratory droplet transmission of H5N1 viruses in ferrets, the best animal model for human-to-human transmission. Imai et al . show that only four mutations in H5N1 HA are required to enable ferret-to-ferret transmission of a reassortant virus containing H5 HA, with the remaining genes from human pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. It is probable that further adaptations in other avian virus genes would be required to mediate transmission of wholly avian H5N1 in mammals, but human H1N1 and H5N1 viruses are genetically compatible and the emergence of H5-HA-containing viruses might be expected to cause a pandemic because humans lack immunity to H5 viruses. Knowledge of the mutations involved in adapting H5 HA to mammalian transmission could help with surveillance and monitoring of H5N1 viruses adapting towards pandemic potential. Highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza A viruses occasionally infect humans, but currently do not transmit efficiently among humans. The viral haemagglutinin (HA) protein is a known host-range determinant as it mediates virus binding to host-specific cellular receptors 1 , 2 , 3 . Here we assess the molecular changes in HA that would allow a virus possessing subtype H5 HA to be transmissible among mammals. We identified a reassortant H5 HA/H1N1 virus—comprising H5 HA (from an H5N1 virus) with four mutations and the remaining seven gene segments from a 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus—that was capable of droplet transmission in a ferret model. The transmissible H5 reassortant virus preferentially recognized human-type receptors, replicated efficiently in ferrets, caused lung lesions and weight loss, but was not highly pathogenic and did not cause mortality. These results indicate that H5 HA can convert to an HA that supports efficient viral transmission in mammals; however, we do not know whether the four mutations in the H5 HA identified here would render a wholly avian H5N1 virus transmissible. The genetic origin of the remaining seven viral gene segments may also critically contribute to transmissibility in mammals. Nevertheless, as H5N1 viruses continue to evolve and infect humans, receptor-binding variants of H5N1 viruses with pandemic potential, including avian–human reassortant viruses as tested here, may emerge. Our findings emphasize the need to prepare for potential pandemics caused by influenza viruses possessing H5 HA, and will help individuals conducting surveillance in regions with circulating H5N1 viruses to recognize key residues that predict the pandemic potential of isolates, which will inform the development, production and distribution of effective countermeasures.