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There are over three dozen violent insurgencies around the globe today, including in such high-profile countries as Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine. If we are to understand modern warfare, we need to understand insurgencies. Waging Insurgent Warfare weaves together an impressive analysis of how groups start, wage, and end insurgencies.

Background Firearm violence is a growing public health problem causing death globally. With easy accessibility to firearms, suicides, homicides, and homicide-suicides have increased among security officers, especially in developing countries affected by long-standing civil wars/political insurgencies. No study has explored firearm violence in East African countries. This study describes the press media reporting of suicides, homicides, and homicide-suicides among security officers in two East African countries (Uganda and Kenya). Methods Due to the absence of suicide databases among East African countries, the present study reviewed press media reports. We utilized content analysis of suicides, homicides, and homicide-suicides reports among security forces. Relevant media reports between January-2020 and May-2023 were searched. Using ANOVA and chi-square tests, we tested for statistical differences in characteristics between victims and perpetrators. Results Among the 56 perpetrated reports, most of them were homicides 44.64% (n = 25/56), 30.36% (n = 17/56) were homicide-suicides, and 25% (n = 14/56) were suicides. Perpetrators’ age ranged from 21 to 47 years, majority being males [53/56 (94.64%)]. Victims were 58, mostly Ugandans [41/58 (73.21%)] with a mean age of 33.5 ± 8.81 years. Among the three main outcomes, statistically significant difference existed by country (χ 2  = 23.88, p  < 0.001), and perpetrators’ age (F = 8.59, p  = 0.005). There was a significant difference between perpetrators and the number of victims lost by age of victims (F = 10.37, p  = 0.002). Among victims, type of security of perpetrator and citizenship of victims (χ 2  = 24.18, p  < 0.001) showed statistical difference with Ugandans having more victims to army officers while Kenyans to police officers. Brief incident descriptions pointed towards relationship dysfunctions, alcohol/substance abuse, intentional harm, and financial disagreements, as the potential causes. Only two perpetrators were reported to have mental health-related conditions. Conclusion This study shows that media reported firearms-related suicides, homicides, and homicide-suicides among security forces commonly involve males. Perpetrators in Uganda are mainly army officers while in Kenya the perpetrators are mostly police officers. Mental health conditions were not frequently reported among perpetrators. We recommend strengthening and enforcing gun regulation policies among security officers to curb this growing problem in these countries. Routine screening of mental health problems to enable early interventions is recommended among security officers.

In 2017, the Adamawa State Primary Healthcare Development Agency introduced ALMANACH, an electronic clinical decision support system based on a modified version of IMCI. The target area was the Federal State of Adamawa (Nigeria), a region recovering after the Boko Haram insurgency. The aim of this implementation research was to assess the improvement in terms of quality care offered after one year of utilization of the tool. We carried out two cross-sectional studies in six Primary Health Care Centres to assess the improvements in comparison with the baseline carried out before the implementation. One survey was carried out inside the consultation room and was based on the direct observation of 235 consultations of children aged from 2 to 59 months old. The second survey questioned 189 caregivers outside the health facility for their opinion about the consultation carried out through using the tablet, the prescriptions and medications given. In comparison with the baseline, more children were checked for danger signs (60.0% vs. 37.1% at baseline) and in addition, children were actually weighed (61.1% vs. 27.7%) during consultation. Malnutrition screening was performed in 35.1% of children (vs. 12.1%). Through ALMANACH, also performance of preventive measures was significantly improved (p<0.01): vaccination status was checked in 39.8% of cases (vs. 10.6% at baseline), and deworming and vitamin A prescription was increased to 46.5% (vs. 0.7%) and 48.3% (vs. 2.8%) respectively. Furthermore, children received a complete physical examination (58.3% vs. 45.5%, p<0.01) and correct treatment (48.4% vs. 29.5%, p<0.01). Regarding antibiotic prescription, 69.3% patients received at least one antibiotic (baseline 77.7%, p<0.05). Our findings highlight major improvements in terms of quality of care despite many questions still pending to be answered in relation to a full integration of the tool in the Adamawa health system.

It is still unknown whether there is some deep structure to modern wars and terrorist campaigns that could, for example, enable reliable prediction of future patterns of violent events. Recent war research focuses on size distributions of violent events, with size defined by the number of people killed in each event. Event size distributions within previously available datasets, for both armed conflicts and for global terrorism as a whole, exhibit extraordinary regularities that transcend specifics of time and place. These distributions have been well modelled by a narrow range of power laws that are, in turn, supported by some theories of violent group dynamics. We show that the predicted event-size patterns emerge broadly in a mass of new event data covering all conflicts in the world from 1989 to 2016. Moreover, there are similar regularities in the events generated by individual terrorist organizations, 1998-2016. The existence of such robust empirical patterns hints at the predictability of size distributions of violent events in future wars. We pursue this prospect using split-sample techniques that help us to make useful out-of-sample predictions. Power-law-based prediction systems outperform lognormal-based systems. We conclude that there is indeed evidence from the existing data that fundamental patterns do exist, and that these can allow prediction of size distribution of events in modern wars and terrorist campaigns.

Background Cameroon has faced frequent and severe cholera outbreaks since 1971, with case-fatality rates (CFRs) ranging from 12% in 1991, to 5.3% in 2014, all higher than the less than 1% cholera CFR target set by WHO. However, not many studies providing insight on context-specific risk factors have been published. The purpose of this study was to describe the recent cholera outbreaks in Cameroon and to determine factors associated with mortality. Methods This was an analytical cross-sectional study that employed a retrospective design exploiting Ministry of Public Health cholera line-lists from 2018–2023. These line lists were obtained from the Public Health Emergency Operations Coordination and Control Center, compiled into a single Microsoft Excel Sheet, cleaned and analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and SPSS version 20. Cholera cases were defined as those confirmed in reference laboratories via stool culture and suspected cases with proven epidemiological link to laboratory-confirmed cases (suspected cases in health districts with active laboratory-confirmed cases). Factors associated with cholera mortality were identified using binary logistic regression (adjusted odds ratios), after socio-demographic, clinical, and geographical distribution of cholera cases were described. Maps were generated using QGIS version 3.28.14. Results Between May 2018 and March 2023, Cameroon experienced four cholera epidemics resulting in 18,986 reported cases and affecting 8 out of 10 administrative regions. The three coastal regions (Littoral, South and South-West Region) reported 83.4% (15,839/18,986) of all the cases while the remaining five affected regions jointly reported 16.6% (3,147/18,986) cases. The most represented age group were those aged 25–35 years (21.9%; 4,163/1,876) and the male: female sex ratio was 1.27. The overall CFR was 2.7% (478 deaths/17,967 cases with known outcome) and was highest among persons > 65 years (6.8%; 59/869). Urban areas notified more cases than rural areas (13,267 vs 5,484). Factors associated with increased mortality were male sex (aOR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.30—2.04 ), dry season (aOR 1.67, 95% CI: 1.28—2.22 ), age above 45 years (aOR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.45—2.22 ) and severe dehydration at consultation (aOR 12.76, 95% CI: 7.66–21.25 ). Conclusions Cholera outbreaks occurred in eight out of the ten administrative regions in Cameroon during the study period and mortality appeared to be driven by multiple factors notably severe dehydration at time of consultation, advanced age, male sex and the dry season. The high caseloads and case-fatality rates reiterate the need for further strengthening of existing cholera surveillance and outbreak response mechanisms.

To evaluate a project that integrated essential primary health-care services into the oral polio vaccine programme in hard-to-reach, underserved communities in northern Nigeria. In 2013, Nigeria's polio emergency operation centre adopted a new approach to rapidly raise polio immunity and reduce newborn, child and maternal morbidity and mortality. We identified, trained and equipped eighty-four mobile health teams to provide free vaccination and primary-care services in 3176 hard-to-reach settlements. We conducted cross-sectional surveys of women of childbearing age in households with children younger than 5 years, in 317 randomly selected settlements, pre- and post-intervention (March 2014 and November 2015, respectively). From June 2014 to September 2015 mobile health teams delivered 2 979 408 doses of oral polio vaccine and dewormed 1 562 640 children younger than 5 years old; performed 676 678 antenatal consultations and treated 1 682 671 illnesses in women and children, including pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria. The baseline survey found that 758 (19.6%) of 3872 children younger than 5 years had routine immunization cards and 690/3872 (17.8%) were fully immunized for their age. The endline survey found 1757/3575 children (49.1%) with routine immunization cards and 1750 (49.0%) fully immunized. Children vaccinated with 3 or more doses of oral polio vaccine increased from 2133 (55.1%) to 2666 (74.6%). Households' use of mobile health services in the previous 6 months increased from 509/1472 (34.6%) to 2060/2426(84.9%). Integrating routine primary-care services into polio eradication activities in Nigeria resulted in increased coverage for supplemental oral polio vaccine doses and essential maternal, newborn and child health interventions.

Purpose The aim of this epidemiological study was to identify prevalence rates of mental health problems, factors associated with poor mental health and protective and risk factors in a post-conflict situation in Nepal. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted among 720 adults in 2008. A three-stage sampling procedure was used following a proportionate stratified random sampling strategy. The outcome measures used in the study were locally validated with Beck Anxiety Inventory (BAI), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)—Civilian Version (PCL-C) and locally constructed function impairment scale, resources and coping. Results Of the sample, 27.5 % met threshold for depression, 22.9 % for anxiety, and 9.6 % for PTSD. Prevalence rates were higher among women (depression, OR 2.14 [1.52–3.47]; anxiety, OR 2.30 [1.45–3.17] and PTSD, OR 3.32 [1.87–5.89]) and older age categories (depression, OR 1.02 [1.01–1.04]; anxiety, OR 1.04 [1.03–1.05] and PTSD, OR 1.02 [1.0–1.03]). Respondents who perceived more negative impact of the conflict (e.g., hampered the business/industry; hindered in getting medical treatment, etc.) in their communities were more at risk for depression (OR 1.1 [1.06–1.14]), anxiety (OR 1.05 [1.01–1.09]) and PTSD (OR 1.09 [1.04–1.14]). Other risk factors identified in the study were ethnicity, district of residence and poverty (lack of clothing, medicine and information via radio at home). Conclusion Overall, the prevalence rates of depression and anxiety in the sample are comparable to, or lower than, other studies conducted with populations affected by conflict and with refugees. However, the findings underscore the need to address the current lack of mental health care resources in post-conflict rural Nepal, especially for marginalized populations.

We study the effect of civil conflict on social capital, focusing on Uganda's experience during the last decade. Using individual and county-level data, we document large causal effects on trust and ethnic identity of an exogenous outburst of ethnic conflicts in 2002-2005. We exploit two waves of survey data from Afrobarometer (Round 4 Afrobarometer Survey in Uganda, 2000, 2008), including information on socioeconomic characteristics at the individual level, and geo-referenced measures of fighting events from ACLED. Our identification strategy exploits variations in the both the spatial and ethnic intensity of fighting. We find that more intense fighting decreases generalized trust and increases ethnic identity. The effects are quantitatively large and robust to a number of control variables, alternative measures of violence, and different statistical techniques involving ethnic and spatial fixed effects and instrumental variables. Controlling for the intensity of violence during the conflict, we also document that post-conflict economic recovery is slower in ethnically fractionalized counties. Our findings are consistent with the existence of a self-reinforcing process between conflicts and ethnic cleavages.