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A critical assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
\"This book introduces the IPCC as an institution, covering its origins, history, processes, participants, products, and influence. Discussing its internal workings and operating principles, it shows how IPCC assessments are produced and how consensus is reached between scientific and policy experts from different institutions, countries, and social groups. A variety of practices and discourses - epistemic, diplomatic, procedural, communicative - that make the institution function are critically assessed, allowing the reader to learn from its successes and failures. This volume is the go-to reference for researchers studying or active within the IPCC, as well as invaluable for students concerned with global environmental problems and climate governance. This title is also available as Open Access via Cambridge Core\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Unlearning modernity? A critical examination of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Modernity's ideals of progress through industrialisation, coupled with rationalist views of value-free and neutral science guiding policymaking, have been driving forces behind the climate crisis and related injustices. Post-colonial scholarship calls for unlearning this modernist paradigm. This study examines the extent to which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the preeminent global authority on climate change knowledge, is both shaped by the procedural logic of Eurocentric modernity and the tendencies towards unlearning these modernist characteristics in favour of more pluralistic, co-productive approaches. Through an inductive-deductive qualitative methodology, including semi-structured interviews with IPCC authors and policymakers at international climate conferences, this paper finds the IPCC to be situated in a tension field between modernity and unlearning it. On the one hand, the IPCC is constrained by path-dependencies of Eurocentric modernity, manifested in the linear model of knowledge transfer, the differentiated systems logic of science and policy spheres, and the privileging of Western scientific expertise as universally valid and apolitical. On the other hand, the study also identifies emergent tendencies within the IPCC towards broadening disciplinary diversity, incorporating alternative epistemologies like Indigenous and Local Knowledge, and fostering co-productive collaborations between scientists and policymakers. These nascent \"unlearning\" efforts signal cracks in modernity's edifice, though limitations and potential risks caution against overstatement. By highlighting this critical juncture, the paper contributes empirical and conceptual insights into the IPCC's transition from modernist constraints towards more pluriversal climate responses. This analysis sheds light on the IPCC's evolving role in shaping global climate governance and the ongoing struggle to redefine climate knowledge production.
Journal Article
Determinants of Household Adaptation to Climate Vulnerability in Wetland Areas of Bangladesh: An Empirical Estimation
This study examines the vulnerability of farming households to climate change and the determinants of their adaptation decisions in the wetland areas of Bangladesh. Primary data from 120 households were analysed using descriptive statistics, the livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), the LVI based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI‐IPCC) framework and a Binary Logistic regression model. The overall LVI score (0.53) and the LVI‐IPCC score (0.18) indicate moderate vulnerability, driven mainly by livelihood dependence on natural resources, climate variability and health‐related challenges. The Binary Logistic regression results show that family size, access to alternative income sources, perceptions of climate change and access to loans significantly influence households’ adaptation behaviour. The findings underscore the need for policies that strengthen education and skills, expand financial access and promote climate‐resilient livelihoods and infrastructure to enhance the adaptive capacity of wetland farming communities in Bangladesh.
Journal Article
Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.
Journal Article
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
The sixth and latest IPCC assessment weights climate models according to how well they reproduce other evidence. Now the rest of the community should do the same.
Journal Article
A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic
To provide an observational basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections of a slowing Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the 21st century, the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) observing system was launched in the summer of 2014. The first 21-month record reveals a highly variable overturning circulation responsible for the majority of the heat and freshwater transport across the OSNAP line. In a departure from the prevailing view that changes in deep water formation in the Labrador Sea dominate MOC variability, these results suggest that the conversion of warm, salty, shallow Atlantic waters into colder, fresher, deep waters that move southward in the Irminger and Iceland basins is largely responsible for overturning and its variability in the subpolar basin.
Journal Article
Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall
We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey’s magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.
Journal Article
Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Climate Change Adaptation
Nature-based solutions offer an exciting prospect for resilience building and advancing urban planning to address complex urban challenges simultaneously. In this article, we formulated through a coproduction process in workshops held during the first IPCC Cities and Climate Science Conference in Edmonton, Canada, in March 2018, a series of synthesis statements on the role, potential, and research gaps of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and mitigation. We address interlocking questions about the evidence and knowledge needed for integrating nature-based solutions into urban agendas. We elaborate on the ways to advance the planning and knowledge agenda for nature-based solutions by focusing on knowledge coproduction, indicators and big data, and novel financing models. With this article, we intend to open a wider discussion on how cities can effectively mainstream nature-based solutions to mitigate and adapt to the negative effects of climate change and the future role of urban science in coproducing nature-based solutions.
Journal Article
Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100
Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of scenarios of the IPCC’s 5th (AR5) and forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO 2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 to 2020 and International Energy Agency (IEA) projections to 2050. These scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100, with a median of 2.2 °C. The subset of plausible IPCC scenarios does not represent all possible trajectories of future emissions and warming. Collectively, they project continued mitigation progress and suggest the world is presently on a lower emissions trajectory than is often assumed. However, these scenarios also indicate that the world is still off track from limiting 21st-century warming to 1.5 °C or below 2 °C.
Journal Article
1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.
Established climate mitigation modelling relies on controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, but neglects to consider degrowth scenarios. Here the authors show that degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability and thus need to be thoroughly assessed.
Journal Article