Explore the vast range of titles available.

This paper studies the use of electron data from the Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) on board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) in the UMASEP (University of Málaga Solar particle Event Predictor) scheme [Núñez, Space Weather 9 (2011) S07003; Núñez, Space Weather 13 (2015)] for predicting well-connected >10 MeV Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. In this study, the identification of magnetic connection to a solar particle source is done by correlating Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Soft X-Ray (SXR) fluxes with ACE EPAM electrons fluxes with energies of 0.175–0.375 MeV. The forecasting performance of this model, called Well-Connected Prediction with electrons (WCP-electrons), was evaluated for a 16-year period from November 2001 to October 2017. This performance is compared with that of the component of current real-time tool UMASEP-10, called here WCP-protons model, which predicts the same type of events by correlating GOES SXR with differential proton fluxes with energies of 9–500 MeV. For the aforementioned period, the WCP-electrons model obtained a Probability of Detection (POD) of 50.0%, a False Alarm Ratio (FAR) of 39% and an Average Warning Time (AWT) of 1 h 44 min. The WCP-protons model obtained a POD of 78.0%, a FAR of 22% and an AWT of 1 h 3 min. These results show that the use of ACE EPAM electron data in the UMASEP scheme obtained a better anticipation time (additional 41 min on average) but a lower performance in terms of POD and FAR. We also analyzed the use of a combined model, composed of WCP-electrons and WCP-protons, working in parallel (i.e. the combined model issues a forecast when any of the individual models emits a forecast). The combined model obtained the best POD (84%), and a FAR and AWT (34.4% and 1 h 34 min, respectively) which is in between those of the individual models.

This study shows a quantitative assessment of the use of Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) observations in the prediction of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events. The UMASEP scheme (Space Weather, 9, S07003, 2011; 13, 2015, 807-819) forecasts the occurrence and the intensity of the first hours of SEP events. in order to predict well-connected events, this scheme correlates Solar Soft X-rays (SXR) with differential proton fluxes of the GOES satellites. In this study, we explore the use of the EUV time history from GOES-EUVS and SDO-AIA instruments in the UMASEP scheme. This study presents the results of the prediction of the occurrence of well-connected >10 MeV SEP events, for the period from May 2010 to December 2017, in terms of Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Crticial Success Index (CSI), and the average and median of the warning times. The UMASEP/EUV-based models were calibrated using GOES and SDO data from May 2010 to October 2014, and validated using out-of-sample SDO data from November 2014 to December 2017. The best results were obtained by those models that used EUV data in the range 50-340 angstroms. We conclude that the UMASEP/EUV-based models yield similar or better POD results, and similar or worse FAR results, than those of the current real-time UMSEP/SXR-based model. The reason for the higher POD of the UMASEP/EUV-based models in the range of 50-340 angstroms was due to the high percentage of successful predictions of well-connected SEP events associated with 10 MeV SEP events, improves the overall performance, obtaining a POD of 92.9% (39/42) compared with 81% (34/42) of the current tool, and a slightly worse FAR of 31.6% (18/57) compared with 29.2% (14/58) of the current tool.

This review presents our understanding of cometary dust at the end of 2017. For decades, insight about the dust ejected by nuclei of comets had stemmed from remote observations from Earth or Earth’s orbit, and from flybys, including the samples of dust returned to Earth for laboratory studies by the Stardust return capsule. The long-duration Rosetta mission has recently provided a huge and unique amount of data, obtained using numerous instruments, including innovative dust instruments, over a wide range of distances from the Sun and from the nucleus. The diverse approaches available to study dust in comets, together with the related theoretical and experimental studies, provide evidence of the composition and physical properties of dust particles, e.g., the presence of a large fraction of carbon in macromolecules, and of aggregates on a wide range of scales. The results have opened vivid discussions on the variety of dust-release processes and on the diversity of dust properties in comets, as well as on the formation of cometary dust, and on its presence in the near-Earth interplanetary medium. These discussions stress the significance of future explorations as a way to decipher the formation and evolution of our Solar System.

The implementation and first results of the new space weather forecasting-targeted inner heliosphere model “European heliospheric forecasting information asset” (EUHFORIA) are presented. EUHFORIA consists of two major components: a coronal model and a heliosphere model including coronal mass ejections. The coronal model provides data-driven solar wind plasma parameters at 0.1 AU by constructing a magnetic field model of the coronal large-scale magnetic field and employing empirical relations to determine the plasma state such as the solar wind speed and mass density. These are then used as boundary conditions to drive a three-dimensional time-dependent magnetohydrodynamics model of the inner heliosphere up to 2 AU. CMEs are injected into the ambient solar wind modeled using the cone model, with their parameters obtained from fits to imaging observations. In addition to detailing the modeling methodology, an initial validation run is presented. The results feature a highly dynamic heliosphere that the model is able to capture in good agreement with in situ observations. Finally, future horizons for the model are outlined.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) modulation over six decades (1964–2024), covering Solar Cycles 20 through 25. Using an extensive data set of ground-based neutron monitor measurements, we examine the long-term evolution of GCR intensity about key solar and heliospheric parameters. The analysis includes an expanded set of variables, such as sunspot numbers as a proxy for solar activity, solar wind velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field strength. We apply advanced statistical methods, including the running cross-correlations method, phase-specific analyses (with and without time lag), and linear regression, to model the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Our findings reveal clear modulation patterns across different solar cycles, emphasizing the significant impact of varying solar activities and interplanetary medium conditions on cosmic ray propagation. The study identifies notable temporal variations in cosmic ray transport mechanisms, particularly during the anomalous Solar Cycle 24 and the onset of Cycle 25. Statistical analysis shows that Pearson’s correlation between cosmic ray flux and sunspot numbers gradually decreased from Cycle 20 to Cycle 24, suggesting a weakening in solar modulation efficiency. Additionally, we detect a significant positive trend in the baseline CR intensity, increasing by approximately 0.1% per year, potentially linked to long-term changes in the heliospheric environment. The anomalously high cosmic ray flux during Solar Cycle 24’s minimum (2009–2010) is also examined in detail, revealing a unique combination of reduced solar magnetic field strength and altered heliospheric conditions. These results offer crucial insights into the long-term behavior of cosmic ray modulation and contribute to our understanding of space weather dynamics, which may inform future models for predicting cosmic ray flux variations.

Energetic particles represent an important component of the plasma in the heliosphere. They range from particles accelerated at impulsive events in the solar corona and at large scale structures in the interplanetary medium, to anomalous cosmic rays accelerated at the boundaries of the heliosphere. In-situ satellite observations, numerical simulations and theoretical models have advanced, often in a cooperative way, our knowledge on the acceleration processes involved. In this paper we review recent developments on particle acceleration, with major emphasis on shock acceleration, giving an overview of recent observations at interplanetary shocks and at the termination shock of the solar wind. We discuss their interpretation in terms of analytical models and numerical simulations. The influence of the particle transport properties on the acceleration mechanism will also be addressed.

The typical subsolar stand‐off distance of Mars' bow shock is of the order of a solar wind ion convective gyroradius, making it highly non‐planar to incident ions. Using spacecraft observations and a test particle model, we illustrate the impact of the bow shock curvature on transient structures which form near the upstream edge of moving foreshocks caused by slow rotations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The structures exhibit noticeable decrease in the solar wind plasma density and the IMF strength within their core, are accompanied by a compressional shock layer, and are consistent with foreshock bubbles (FBs). Ion populations responsible for these structures include backstreaming ions that only appear within the moving foreshock and reflected ions with hybrid trajectories that straddle between the quasi‐perpendicular and quasi‐parallel bow shocks during slow IMF rotations. Both ion populations accumulate near the upstream edge of the moving foreshock which facilitates FB formation. Plain Language Summary Planets in the solar system are continuously impacted by the solar wind, a plasma flow originating at the Sun and propagating through the interplanetary medium at high speeds. The solar wind also carries a magnetic field which at times contains twists or discontinuities. The discontinuities are associated with large scale electric currents that can have planar shapes. A planetary obstacle significantly modulate the solar wind plasma and the interaction of solar wind discontinuities with the modulated plasma upstream of the planet leads to formation of transient structures. Due to their relatively large size, these structures can significantly impact and destabilize plasma boundaries at lower altitudes closer to the surface. The results of this paper improve our understanding of solar wind interactions and formation of transient structures upstream of Mars. Key Points Foreshock bubbles can form upstream of Mars Slow field rotations can cause foreshock bubbles while reflected ions from the quasi‐perpendicular bow shock contribute to their formation Unique ion kinetic scale processes exist around foreshock structures at Mars due to the different interaction size scale

The observed photospheric magnetic field is a crucial parameter for understanding a range of fundamental solar and heliospheric phenomena. Synoptic maps, in particular, which are derived from the observed line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field and built up over a period of 27 days, are the main driver for global numerical models of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. Yet, in spite of 60 years of measurements, quantitative estimates remain elusive. In this study, we compare maps from seven solar observatories (Stanford/WSO, NSO/KPVT, NSO/SOLIS, NSO/GONG, SOHO/MDI, UCLA/MWO, and SDO /HMI) to identify consistencies and differences among them. We find that while there is a general qualitative consensus, there are also some significant differences. We compute conversion factors that relate measurements made by one observatory to another using both synoptic map pixel-by-pixel and histogram-equating techniques, and we also estimate the correlation between datasets. For example, Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) synoptic maps must be multiplied by a factor of 3 – 4 to match Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO) estimates. Additionally, we find no evidence that the MWO saturation correction factor should be applied to WSO data, as has been done in previous studies. Finally, we explore the relationship between these datasets over more than a solar cycle, demonstrating that, with a few notable exceptions, the conversion factors remain relatively constant. While our study was able to quantitatively describe the relationship between the datasets, it did not uncover any obvious “ground truth.” We offer several suggestions for how this may be addressed in the future.

The Van Allen radiation belts are two rings of charged particles encircling the Earth. Therefore the transient appearance in 2012 of a third ring between the inner and outer belts was a surprise. A study of the ultrarelativistic electrons in this middle ring reveals new physics for particles above 2 MeV. Radiation in space was the first discovery of the space age. Earth’s radiation belts consist of energetic particles that are trapped by the geomagnetic field and encircle the planet 1 . The electron radiation belts usually form a two-zone structure with a stable inner zone and a highly variable outer zone, which forms and disappears owing to wave–particle interactions on the timescale of a day, and is strongly influenced by the very-low-frequency plasma waves. Recent observations revealed a third radiation zone at ultrarelativistic energies 2 , with the additional medium narrow belt (long-lived ring) persisting for approximately 4 weeks. This new ring resulted from a combination of electron losses to the interplanetary medium and scattering by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves to the Earth’s atmosphere. Here we show that ultrarelativistic electrons can stay trapped in the outer zone and remain unaffected by the very-low-frequency plasma waves for a very long time owing to a lack of scattering into the atmosphere. The absence of scattering is explained as a result of ultrarelativistic particles being too energetic to resonantly interact with waves at low latitudes. This study shows that a different set of physical processes determines the evolution of ultrarelativistic electrons.

We analyse the characteristics of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) during Solar Cycles 23 and 24. The present analysis is primarily based on the near-Earth ICME catalogue (Richardson and Cane, 2010 ). An important aspect of this study is to understand the near-Earth and geoeffective aspects of ICMEs in terms of their association (type II ICMEs) versus absence (non-type II ICMEs) of decameter-hectometer (DH) type II radio bursts, detected by Wind/WAVES and STEREOS/WAVES. Notably, DH type II radio bursts driven by a CME indicate powerful MHD shocks leaving the inner corona and entering the interplanetary medium. We find a drastic reduction in the occurrence of ICMEs by 56% in Solar Cycle 24 compared to the previous cycle (64 versus 147 events). Interestingly, despite a significant decrease in ICME/CME counts, both cycles contain almost the same fraction of type II ICMEs (≈ 47%). Our analysis reveals that, even at a large distance of 1 AU, type II CMEs maintain significantly higher speeds compared to non-type II events (523 km s −1 versus 440 km s −1 ). While there is an obvious trend of decrease in ICME transit times with increase in the CME initial speed, there also exists a noticeable wide range of transit times for a given CME speed. Contextually, Cycle 23 exhibits 10 events with shorter transit times ranging between 20 – 40 hours of predominantly type II categories while, interestingly, Cycle 24 almost completely lacks such “fast” events. We find a significant reduction in the parameter V ICME × B z , the dawn to dusk electric field, by 39% during Solar Cycle 24 in comparison with the previous cycle. Further, V ICME × B z shows a strong correlation with Dst index, which even surpasses the consideration of B z and V ICME alone. The above results imply the crucial role of V ICME × B z toward effectively modulating the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs.