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In response to public concerns and campaigns, some United Kingdom supermarkets have implemented policies to reduce less-healthy food at checkouts. We explored the effects of these policies on purchases of less-healthy foods commonly displayed at checkouts. We used a natural experimental design and two data sources providing complementary and unique information. We analysed data on purchases of small packages of common, less-healthy, checkout foods (sugary confectionary, chocolate, and potato crisps) from 2013 to 2017 from nine UK supermarkets (Aldi, Asda, Co-op, Lidl, M&S, Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Tesco, and Waitrose). Six supermarkets implemented a checkout food policy between 2013 and 2017 and were considered intervention stores; the remainder were comparators. Firstly, we studied the longitudinal association between implementation of checkout policies and purchases taken home. We used data from a large (n ≈ 30,000) household purchase panel of food brought home to conduct controlled interrupted time series analyses of purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from 12 months before to 12 months after implementation. We conducted separate analyses for each intervention supermarket, using others as comparators. We synthesised results across supermarkets using random effects meta-analyses. Implementation of a checkout food policy was associated with an immediate reduction in four-weekly purchases of common checkout foods of 157,000 (72,700-242,800) packages per percentage market share-equivalent to a 17.3% reduction. This decrease was sustained at 1 year with 185,100 (121,700-248,500) fewer packages purchased per 4 weeks per percentage market share-equivalent to a 15.5% reduction. The immediate, but not sustained, effect was robust to sensitivity analysis. Secondly, we studied the cross-sectional association between checkout food policies and purchases eaten without being taken home. We used data from a smaller (n ≈ 7,500) individual purchase panel of food bought and eaten 'on the go'. We conducted cross-sectional analyses comparing purchases of common checkout foods in 2016-2017 from supermarkets with and without checkout food policies. There were 76.4% (95% confidence interval 48.6%-89.1%) fewer annual purchases of less-healthy common checkout foods from supermarkets with versus without checkout food policies. The main limitations of the study are that we do not know where in the store purchases were selected and cannot determine the effect of changes in purchases on consumption. Other interventions may also have been responsible for the results seen. There is a potential impact of checkout food polices on purchases. Voluntary supermarket-led activities may have public health benefits.

To our knowledge, no study has assessed the association between heatwaves and risk of hospitalization and how it may change over time in Brazil. We quantified the heatwave-hospitalization association in Brazil during 2000-2015. Daily data on hospitalization and temperature were collected from 1,814 cities (>78% of the national population) in the hottest five consecutive months during 2000-2015. Twelve types of heatwaves were defined with daily mean temperatures of ≥90th, 92.5th, 95th, or 97.5th percentiles of year-round temperature and durations of ≥2, 3, or 4 consecutive days. The city-specific association was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression with constrained distributed lag model and then pooled at the national level using random-effect meta-analysis. Stratified analyses were performed by five regions, sex, 10 age groups, and nine cause categories. The temporal change in the heatwave-hospitalization association was assessed using a time-varying constrained distributed lag model. Of the 58,400,682 hospitalizations (59% women), 24%, 34%, 21%, and 19% of cases were aged <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 years, respectively. The city-specific year-round daily mean temperatures were 23.5 ± 2.8 °C on average, varying from 26.8 ± 1.8 °C for the 90th percentile to 28.0 ± 1.6 °C for the 97.5th percentile. We observed that the risk of hospitalization was most pronounced for heatwaves characterized by high daily temperatures and long durations across Brazil, except for the minimal association in the north (the hottest region). After controlling for temperature, the association remained for severe heatwaves in the south and southeast (cold regions). Children 0-9 years, the elderly ≥70 years, and admissions for perinatal conditions were most strongly associated with heatwaves. Over the study period, the strength of the heatwave-hospitalization association declined substantially in the south, while an apparent increase was observed in the southeast. The main limitations of this study included the lack of data on individual temperature exposure and measured air pollution. There are geographic, demographic, cause-specific, and temporal variations in the heatwave-hospitalization associations across the Brazilian population. Considering the projected increase in frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, future strategies should be developed, such as building early warning systems, to reduce the health risk associated with heatwaves in Brazil.

The 2012 Health and Social Care Act (HSCA) in England led to among the largest healthcare reforms in the history of the National Health Service (NHS). It gave control of £67 billion of the NHS budget for secondary care to general practitioner (GP) led Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). An expected outcome was that patient care would shift away from expensive hospital and specialist settings, towards less expensive community-based models. However, there is little evidence for the effectiveness of this approach. In this study, we aimed to assess the association between the NHS reforms and hospital admissions and outpatient specialist visits. We conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis to examine rates of outpatient specialist visits and inpatient hospitalisations before and after the implementation of the HSCA. We used national routine hospital administrative data (Hospital Episode Statistics) on all NHS outpatient specialist visits and inpatient hospital admissions in England between 2007 and 2015 (with a mean of 26.8 million new outpatient visits and 14.9 million inpatient admissions per year). As a control series, we used equivalent data on hospital attendances in Scotland. Primary outcomes were: total, elective, and emergency hospitalisations, and total and GP-referred specialist visits. Both countries had stable trends in all outcomes at baseline. In England, after the policy, there was a 1.1% (95% CI 0.7%-1.5%; p < 0.001) increase in total specialist visits per quarter and a 1.6% increase in GP-referred specialist visits (95% CI 1.2%-2.0%; p < 0.001) per quarter, equivalent to 12.7% (647,000 over the 5,105,000 expected) and 19.1% (507,000 over the 2,658,000 expected) more visits per quarter by the end of 2015, respectively. In Scotland, there was no change in specialist visits. Neither country experienced a change in trends in hospitalisations: change in slope for total, elective, and emergency hospitalisations were -0.2% (95% CI -0.6%-0.2%; p = 0.257), -0.2% (95% CI -0.6%-0.1%; p = 0.235), and 0.0% (95% CI -0.5%-0.4%; p = 0.866) per quarter in England. We are unable to exclude confounding due to other events occurring around the time of the policy. However, we limited the likelihood of such confounding by including relevant control series, in which no changes were seen. Our findings suggest that giving control of healthcare budgets to GP-led CCGs was not associated with a reduction in overall hospitalisations and was associated with an increase in specialist visits.

Measures of the contribution of influenza to Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, both in the seasonal and pandemic setting, are needed to predict the burden of secondary bacterial infections in future pandemics to inform stockpiling. The magnitude of the interaction between these two pathogens has been difficult to quantify because both infections are mainly clinically diagnosed based on signs and symptoms; a combined viral-bacterial testing is rarely performed in routine clinical practice; and surveillance data suffer from confounding problems common to all ecological studies. We proposed a novel multivariate model for age-stratified disease incidence, incorporating contact patterns and estimating disease transmission within and across groups. We used surveillance data from England over the years 2009 to 2017. Influenza infections were identified through the virological testing of samples taken from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness (ILI) within the sentinel scheme run by the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP). Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases were routinely reported to Public Health England (PHE) by all the microbiology laboratories included in the national surveillance system. IPD counts at week t, conditional on the previous time point t-1, were assumed to be negative binomially distributed. Influenza counts were linearly included in the model for the mean IPD counts along with an endemic component describing some seasonal background and an autoregressive component mimicking pneumococcal transmission. Using age-specific counts, Akaike information criterion (AIC)-based model selection suggested that the best fit was obtained when the endemic component was expressed as a function of observed temperature and rainfall. Pneumococcal transmission within the same age group was estimated to explain 33.0% (confidence interval [CI] 24.9%-39.9%) of new cases in the elderly, whereas 50.7% (CI 38.8%-63.2%) of incidence in adults aged 15-44 years was attributed to transmission from another age group. The contribution of influenza on IPD during the 2009 pandemic also appeared to vary greatly across subgroups, being highest in school-age children and adults (18.3%, CI 9.4%-28.2%, and 6.07%, CI 2.83%-9.76%, respectively). Other viral infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and rhinovirus, also seemed to have an impact on IPD: RSV contributed 1.87% (CI 0.89%-3.08%) to pneumococcal infections in the 65+ group, whereas 2.14% (CI 0.87%-3.57%) of cases in the group of 45- to 64-year-olds were attributed to rhinovirus. The validity of this modelling strategy relies on the assumption that viral surveillance adequately represents the true incidence of influenza in the population, whereas the small numbers of IPD cases observed in the younger age groups led to significant uncertainty around some parameter estimates. Our estimates suggested that a pandemic wave of influenza A/H1N1 with comparable severity to the 2009 pandemic could have a modest impact on school-age children and adults in terms of IPD and a small to negligible impact on infants and the elderly. The seasonal impact of other viruses such as RSV and rhinovirus was instead more important in the older population groups.

Abstract Objective. Access to pregabalin via Ontario’s public drug insurance program was expanded to an unrestricted model on April 1, 2013, from a prior authorization model. This study aims to identify the effect of expanded access on the rate of pregabalin use by publicly insured persons and to assess the characteristics of new patients initiating pregabalin following this expanded access. Methods. We conducted a cross-sectional time series analysis using the linked health administrative records of residents of Ontario, Canada, with public drug coverage who were dispensed a prescription for pregabalin between April 1, 2006, and December 31, 2014. Results. A total of 108,047 publicly insured persons were dispensed pregabalin over the study period. The overall rate of pregabalin use increased from 1.0 per 1,000 individuals in Q1 of 2013 to 22.0 per 1,000 individuals in Q4 of 2014. Musculoskeletal (81.6%) and neurological (68.1%) conditions were the most prevalent diagnoses in patients who initiated pregabalin following the expansion of access. Past and concomitant use of opioids, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and antidepressants was also common in this population. Conclusions. Formulary changes in Ontario have led to expanded access to pregabalin, which may have led to an increase in off-label use of these products and potential patient risk associated with concomitant use of pregabalin with central nervous system–depressing drugs.

Background Bed rest for older hospitalized patients places them at risk for hospital-acquired morbidity. We previously evaluated an early mobilization intervention and found it to be effective at improving mobilization rates and decreasing length of stay on internal medicine units. The aim of this study was to conduct a replication study evaluating the impact of the evidence-informed mobilization intervention on surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units. Methods A multi-component early mobilization intervention was tailored to the local context at seven hospitals in Ontario, Canada. The primary outcome was patient mobilization measured by conducting visual audits twice a week, three times a day. Secondary outcomes were hospital length of stay and discharge destination, which were obtained from hospital decision support data. The study population was patients aged 65 years and older who were admitted to surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units between March and August 2014. Using an interrupted time series design, the intervention was evaluated over three time periods–pre-intervention, during, and post-intervention. Results A total of 3098 patients [mean age 78.46 years (SD 8.38)] were included in the overall analysis. There was a significant increase in mobility immediately after the intervention period compared to pre-intervention with a slope change of 1.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74–3.08, P-value =  0.0014). A decreasing trend in median length of stay was observed in the majority of the participating sites. Overall, a median length of stay of 26.24 days (95% CI 23.67–28.80) was observed pre-intervention compared to 23.81 days (95% CI 20.13–27.49) during the intervention and 24.69 days (95% CI 22.43–26.95) post-intervention. The overall decrease in median length of stay was associated with the increase in mobility across the sites. Conclusions MOVE increased mobilization and these results were replicated across surgery, psychiatry, medicine, and cardiology inpatient units.

Abstract Introduction Online cigarette dealers have lower prices than brick-and-mortar retailers and advertise tax-free status.1–8 Previous studies show smokers search out these online alternatives at the time of a cigarette tax increase.9,10 However, these studies rely upon researchers’ decision to consider a specific date and preclude the possibility that researchers focus on the wrong date. The purpose of this study is to introduce an unbiased methodology to the field of observing search patterns and to use this methodology to determine whether smokers search Google for “cheap cigarettes” at cigarette tax increases and, if so, whether the increased level of searches persists. Methods Publicly available data from Google Trends is used to observe standardized search volumes for the term, “cheap cigarettes”. Seasonal Hybrid Extreme Studentized Deviate and E-Divisive with Means tests were performed to observe spikes and mean level shifts in search volume. Results Of the twelve cigarette tax increases studied, ten showed spikes in searches for “cheap cigarettes” within two weeks of the tax increase. However, the mean level shifts did not occur for any cigarette tax increase. Conclusion Searches for “cheap cigarettes” spike around the time of a cigarette tax increase, but the mean level of searches does not shift in response to a tax increase. The SHESD and EDM tests are unbiased methodologies that can be used to identify spikes and mean level shifts in time series data without an a priori date to be studied. SHESD and EDM affirm spikes in interest are related to tax increases. Implications • Applies improved statistical techniques (SHESD and EDM) to Google search data related to cigarettes, reducing bias and increasing power • Contributes to the body of evidence that state and federal tax increases are associated with spikes in searches for cheap cigarettes and may be good dates for increased online health messaging related to tobacco

Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0 : 26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1 : 12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15 : 51%.

Background and Objectives In 2014, the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) amended the summary of product characteristics of codeine-containing medications limiting their use for maximum three days. This study attempted to clarify the impact of AIFA intervention on prescribing trends and appropriateness of use of codeine-containing medications and other opioids. Methods Using the Health Search Database, a quasi-experimental interrupted time series analysis was conducted to evaluate changes in prescribing trends and appropriateness of use of codeine-containing medications and opioids between 2013 and 2015. Results Prescribing trends of codeine-containing medications significantly decreased (on average, − 352 days of treatment per month of observation), while long-acting opioids (LAOs) had an overall increase. Trends of inappropriate prescriptions significantly increased for two LAOs (i.e. tapentadol, naloxone-oxycodone), both before and after AIFA intervention. Conclusion The use of paracetamol-codeine combination was effectively decreased in Italy because of AIFA intervention. Instead, prescriptions of tapentadol and oxycodone-naloxone stably increased over the study period irrespective of regulatory intervention. Given that the choice of the most appropriate opioid therapy is not straightforward, especially in elderly and/or comorbid patients, general practitioners should consider carefully alternative therapies on the bases of regulatory interventions.

Background Direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCA) remains a controversial issue, with concerns that it leads to unnecessary and inappropriate prescribing. Whether DTCA shifts prescribing from first-line (guideline-recommended) therapy to second-line drugs has not been studied. Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of sequential DTCA campaigns for two drugs used to treat benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH): one newer agent, dutasteride (Avodart ® ), and one older first-line agent, tamsulosin (Flomax ® ). Design Interrupted time series analysis was used to assess the impact of each DTCA campaign using data on consumer “response” from Google Trends and dispensed prescriptions from IMS Health. Participants We analyzed data for the United States from January 2003 to December 2007. Intervention DTCA for dutasteride and tamsulosin commenced on July, 2005 and April, 2006, respectively. Main Measures Monthly Internet search volume (scaled from 0 to 100) for the advertised trade name of each drug and monthly U.S. prescription rates per 1,000 population were analyzed. Key Results The dutasteride campaign was associated with an increase in Internet searches for both “Avodart” (level change +31.3 %, 95 % CI: 27.2–35.4) and “Flomax” (level change +8.3 %, 95 % CI: 0.9–15.7), whereas the tamsulosin campaign was associated with increased “Flomax” searches (level change +25.3 %, 95 % CI: 18.7–31.8). The dutasteride campaign was associated with an increase in the prescription of dutasteride (trend = 0.45/month, 95 % CI: 0.33–0.56), but a larger impact was observed with tamsulosin prescriptions (trend = 0.76/month, 95 % CI: 0.02–1.50). Similarly, the tamsulosin campaign was associated with an immediate fourfold increase in the prescribing of tamsulosin (level change +5.76 units, 95 % CI: 1.79–9.72) compared to dutasteride (level change +1.47 units, 95 % CI: 0.79–2.14). Conclusions DTCA was associated with the utilization of drugs to treat symptomatic BPH. However, both campaigns were associated with greater increases in the use of the guideline-recommended first-line agent. DTCA campaigns may increase the overall levels of guideline-recommended treatments to a greater extent than the specific advertised agents.