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"Investments, Chinese Social aspects United States."
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Impact of economic policy uncertainty on Chinese airline stocks: Evidence from recent crisis periods using TVP-VAR connectedness and quantile-on-quantile analysis
In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between economic uncertainty in China and share prices in the Chinese airline industry, focusing on periods of market crisis. Using daily data from January 2015 to June 2022 and covering major crisis events, including the China stock market crash, US-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine war coinciding with Shanghai's lockdown, we employed Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness and Quantile-on-Quantile regression methodologies to examine dynamic spillover effects between Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and individual airline stocks across market conditions. We found that policy uncertainty transforms from a passive recipient to the dominant spillover transmitter only during the most severe crisis (2022 Russia-Ukraine war/Shanghai lockdown), with total connectedness reaching 82.82% compared to 60% in normal periods, and that state-owned airlines exhibit systematically higher sensitivity to policy uncertainty during stable market conditions, while private airlines show greater resilience. These findings challenge the conventional view that policy uncertainty uniformly affects all firms within a sector, revealing that crisis severity and firm characteristics jointly determine vulnerability patterns, with critical implications for portfolio diversification strategies and policy coordination mechanisms in emerging market economies where government intervention plays a central role in economic stability.
Journal Article
Comparative analysis of socioeconomic models in COVID-19 pandemic
Certain features of socioeconomic models can be distinctly determined in different countries and regions. However, such models are quite flexible under external and internal influences. Their changes can be observed under the impact of unpredictable factors, the COVID-19 pandemic being one. The aim of the work is to identify differences in the structure of socioeconomic models under the influence of the pandemic. The object of the study is the socioeconomic models of various states. The subject of the study is the transformation of socioeconomic models at different stages of the pandemic. Research methods include analysis of statistical data, correlation and comparative analysis, and graphical methods of presenting results. A comparison of data from the most well-known socioeconomic models was carried out for the first time. It is determined that the countries of the Chinese model adopted restrictive measures of high Stringency Index. The countries of the Japanese model used unique crowd management methods, and the countries of the Scandinavian, German and Anglo-Saxon models resorted to unprecedented monetary injections into the social and economic spheres. It was revealed that quarantine measures eventually cost countries less than monetary injections. It was shown that a decrease in the Pandemic Uncertainty Index stabilized the economic behavior of the population and businesses and increased the volume of export-import operations. It was found that the pandemic affected the economy indirectly through the level of uncertainty and rigidity of preventive measures. It is assumed that the intensity and severity of measures could be influenced by global trends leading to certain types of preventive measures rather than by the COVID-19 statistics of a particular country.
Journal Article
Country Image and the Study Abroad Destination Choice of Students from Mainland China
In this study, the author focuses on the issue of country image in destination choice. To examine the relationship between these two variables, the study tests whether mainland Chinese who favor a destination as their ideal first choice for study abroad have a significantly more positive view of that destination's country image than their compatriots. The findings suggest policymakers and marketers from most destinations may be more successful focusing on factors other than country image in their attempts to attract cross-border students.
Journal Article
UNITED STATES-CHINA TRADE AT THE COMMODITY LEVEL AND THE YUAN-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE
In 1978 when China began her economic reforms of moving toward a free market economy and trade liberalization, the trade balance between China and the United States was in favor of the United States in the magnitude of 600 million dollars. Over the 1978–2002 period, however, it has changed in favor of China such that in 2002 China had a surplus of 120 billion dollars against the United States. Over the same period, the Chinese yuan has depreciated almost fourfold. Is real depreciation of the yuan against the dollar a factor in the trade between the two countries? In this article, we employ data at the industry level (88 two‐ and three‐digit industries) and recent advances in error‐correction modeling to show that indeed the real yuan‐dollar rate has played a significant role. This contradicts most previous research that used trade data at the aggregate level. (JEL F31, F32, F14)
Journal Article
MoneyWatch Report
Meanwhile, stocks closed mixed yesterday led by gains in tech and industrial companies. The Dow did decline twenty-six points. The NASDAQ closed up eighteen, hitting a new record. The S&P 500 gained three points.
Transcript
THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE IN SINO-U.S. BILATERAL TRADE
We use the error component two‐stage least squares estimation method to examine the effects of the Sino‐U.S. exchange rate and the weighted exchange rate between the United States and other Asian countries on the Sino‐U.S. trade patterns. Our study suggests that both the exchange rates have contributed to China’s increased trade surplus with the United States. China has imported intermediate goods from the Asian countries, produced final goods using its cheap labor, and exported those goods to the United States. This is especially true for bilateral trade of high‐tech manufacturing goods. Our study also reveals that the U.S. bilateral trade balance could improve if China appreciates its currency (Yuan) against the U.S. dollar. (JEL F14, F10, F19)
Journal Article
The Inevitable Rivalry
It was a momentous choice. Three decades ago, the Cold War ended, and the United States had won. It was now the sole great power on the planet. Scanning the horizon for threats, U.S. policymakers seemed to have little cause for concern-and especially not about China, a weak and impoverished country that had been aligned with the United States against the Soviet Union for over a decade. But there were some ominous signs: China had nearly five times as many people as the United States, and its leaders had embraced economic reform. Population size and wealth are the main building blocks of military power, so there was a serious possibility that China might become dramatically stronger in the decades to come. Since a mightier China would surely challenge the U.S. position in Asia and possibly beyond, the logical choice for the United States was clear: slow China's rise. Instead, it encouraged it. Beguiled by misguided theories about liberalism's inevitable triumph and the obsolescence of great-power conflict, both Democratic and Republican administrations pursued a policy of engagement, which sought to help China grow richer. Washington promoted investment in China and welcomed the country into the global trading system, thinking it would become a peace-loving democracy and a responsible stakeholder in a U.S.-led international order. Of course, this fantasy never materialized. Far from embracing liberal values at home and the status quo abroad, China grew more repressive and ambitious as it rose. Instead of fostering harmony between Beijing and Washington, engagement failed to forestall a rivalry and hastened the end of the so-called unipolar moment. Today, China and the United States are locked in what can only be called a new cold war-an intense security competition that touches on every dimension of their relationship. This rivalry will test U.S. policymakers more than the original Cold War did, as China is likely to be a more powerful competitor than the Soviet Union was in its prime. And this cold war is more likely to turn hot.
Magazine Article