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Aims The 50th anniversary of the publication of the seminal book, The Theory of Island Biogeography, by Robert H. MacArthur and Edward O. Wilson, is a timely moment to review and identify key research foci that could advance island biology. Here, we take a collaborative horizon-scanning approach to identify 50 fundamental questions for the continued development of the field. Location Worldwide. Methods We adapted a well-established methodology of horizon scanning to identify priority research questions in island biology, and initiated it during the Island Biology 2016 conference held in the Azores. A multidisciplinary working group prepared an initial pool of 187 questions. A series of online surveys was then used to refine a list of the 50 top priority questions. The final shortlist was restricted to questions with a broad conceptual scope, and which should be answerable through achievable research approaches. Results Questions were structured around four broad and partially overlapping island topics, including: (Macro)Ecology and Biogeography, (Macro)Evolution, Community Ecology, and Conservation and Management. These topics were then subdivided according to the following subject areas: global diversity patterns (five questions in total); island ontogeny and past climate change (4); island rules and syndromes (3); island biogeography theory (4); immigration–speciation–extinction dynamics (5); speciation and diversification (4); dispersal and colonization (3); community assembly (6); biotic interactions (2); global change (5); conservation and management policies (5); and invasive alien species (4). Main conclusions Collectively, this cross-disciplinary set of topics covering the 50 fundamental questions has the potential to stimulate and guide future research in island biology. By covering fields ranging from biogeography, community ecology and evolution to global change, this horizon scan may help to foster the formation of interdisciplinary research networks, enhancing joint efforts to better understand the past, present and future of island biotas.

Aim To test whether the species richness of understorey insectivorous birds on forest islands induced by a major hydroelectric dam is best explained by either the island biogeography theory (IBT) or the habitat amount hypothesis (HAH). Given the low dispersal ability of the focal species group and the hostile water matrix, we predict that the species richness will be predominantly driven by an island effect as posited by the IBT, rather than a sample area effect as posited by the HAH. Location Forest islands within the Balbina Hydroelectric Reservoir, central Brazilian Amazonia. Taxon Birds. Methods We mist‐netted birds at 33 forest islands (0.63–1,699 ha), totalling 874 individuals of 59 species. The size of the local landscape used to calculate the habitat amount was determined by a multi‐scale analysis in which buffers around mist‐net lines ranged from 50 to 2,000 m. We applied four tests to examine whether the species richness on forest islands is predominantly driven by either an island effect (island size) or a sample area effect (habitat amount). Results From the four tests applied, one was consistent with an island effect, two were regarded as inappropriate to test the HAH, and one could not be adequately addressed due to island size being highly correlated with habitat amount in the local landscape (200‐m buffer). Main conclusions Some of the proposed ways of testing the HAH may lead to misleading conclusions. The relative importance of island size in determining the species richness of understorey insectivorous birds on forest islands is higher than that of surrounding habitat amount, thereby providing stronger support for IBT. We propose a conceptual framework, based on the degree of matrix permeability and species dispersal ability, to determine to what extent a patch‐ or landscape‐centric worldview in landscape ecology provides the most appropriate framework to assess the effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity.

Aim Species on islands are at high risk of extinction due to environmental changes, including global warming, land‐use alterations and invasions. At local scales, extinctions can be offset by strategies promoting in situ persistence. We explored how persistence‐related traits of plants—that is, linked to belowground resource conservation, growth, size and longevity—on edaphic islands respond to variation in insularity and the environment (soil and microclimate), including intraspecific variability, which is rarely considered in functional island biogeography. We hypothesised that plants facing strong insularity and harsh soil conditions are characterised by enhanced persistence abilities. Location Shallow‐soil temperate dry grasslands on granite outcrops, Central Europe. Methods We focussed on edaphic island specialist species belonging to different life histories, namely clonal and non‐clonal perennial plants. We used linear and linear mixed‐effect models to examine intra‐ and interspecific trait patterns versus variation in insularity, soil and microclimate. Results Insularity tended to promote smaller plants (non‐clonal species) and belowground resource‐conservative strategies (both clonal and non‐clonal species), increasing the likelihood of local persistence. Soil also contributed largely to explaining persistence‐related trait patterns: plants growing in harsh soil conditions tended to be resource conservative. Clonal species are distinguished by highly consistent responses to variation in insularity and soil conditions, whereas non‐clonal plants showed distinct species‐specific responses. Main conclusions Our findings have important implications for the conservation biogeography of edaphic island plant specialists. Clonal species may be susceptible to local extinction should insularity or soil conditions vary, for example, due to abrupt changes in the geographical setting (e.g. habitat loss) or local environmental factors (e.g. N‐deposition). Non‐clonal species may instead face environmental changes differently; some will go extinct, whereas others will survive, depending on the prevailing abiotic pressures. This seems to challenge previous views that predicted clonal species to be the winners and non‐clonal species the losers against local extinction.

Prior work has shown a positive scaling relationship between vertebrate body size, human height, and gut microbiome alpha diversity. This observation mirrors commonly observed species area relationships (SARs) in many other ecosystems. Here, we expand these observations to several large datasets, showing that this size–diversity scaling relationship is independent of relevant covariates, like diet, body mass index, age, sex, bowel movement frequency, antibiotic usage, and cardiometabolic health markers. Island biogeography theory (IBT), which predicts that larger islands tend to harbor greater species diversity through neutral demographic processes, provides a simple mechanism for positive SARs. Using a gut-adapted IBT model, we demonstrated that increasing the length of a flow-through ecosystem led to increased species diversity, closely matching our empirical observations. We delve into the possible clinical implications of these SARs in the American Gut cohort. Consistent with prior observations that lower alpha diversity is a risk factor for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI), we found that individuals who reported a history of CDI were shorter than those who did not and that this relationship was mediated by alpha diversity. We observed that vegetable consumption had a much stronger association with CDI history, which was also partially mediated by alpha diversity. In summary, we find that the positive scaling observed between body size and gut alpha diversity can be plausibly explained by a gut-adapted IBT model, may be related to CDI risk, and vegetable intake appears to independently mitigate this risk, although additional work is needed to validate the potential disease risk implications.

The theory of island biogeography (TIB) predicts that species richness in isolated areas is determined by the processes of colonization and extinction, and, in turn, governed by island size and isolation. Metacommunity models extend the TIB, predicting that both habitat and species interactions are important drivers of community vital rates and structure, and that marine metacommunities will exhibit higher extinction/colonization rates relative to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we demonstrate that oceanic banks can be considered islands, and document how application of these theories advanced our understanding of the dynamics of these submarine islands following the fishery-induced collapse of predatory groundfish populations. We employed a 48 yr dataset of fish communities on 10 offshore banks of the Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic Ocean to examine colonization and extinction rates before and after the collapse. Bank-specific colonization, extinction and turnover rates were quantified using the island R package to correct for imperfect detectability, inherent to all sampling of natural systems. Colonization and extinction events were briefly unbalanced following the predator collapse, and reflected in increases in species richness and turnover, most notably on the largest banks. However, over the longer term, a dynamic equilibrium of colonization and extinction events prevailed on 8 of the 10 banks. This resulted in a generally time-invariant species richness, and a negative relationship between species turnover and bank area, as predicted by theory. Our study provides support for the relevance of island biogeography and metacommunity theories in guiding exploration and understanding of the mechanisms governing marine community vital rates and structure.

The fossil record of marine molluscs has been used as evidence to test marine island biogeography theories and to complement the evolutionary patterns of biodiversity and endemicity found in oceanic islands and archipelagos. Although long-distance dispersal patterns have been the subject of several studies, important questions may still be posed. For instance, are these processes random, or do they show distinct patterns? And are they restricted to “windows of opportunities”, or do they occur continuously? In the NE Atlantic, the dispersal of tropical species towards higher latitudes associated with the last interglacial period is a well-known phenomenon. However, the most probable dispersal route remains a matter of debate. To test these ideas, we used the Atlantic and Mediterranean last interglacial fossil records, and compared the present geographic distribution of shallow-water marine molluscs with that registered during the last interglacial episode, aiming to detect changes. Our results show that 27 species became extinct during the course of the last glacial episode, and that 55 marine mollusc species (43 gastropods and 12 bivalves) are ecostratigraphic indicators for the MIS 5e fossiliferous deposits in the Macaronesian archipelagos, the Atlantic coasts of Morocco, and the Mediterranean. Finally, we provide arguments for the timing of dispersal, which occurred during a restricted “window of opportunity” associated with the inception of the last interglacial, and for the most probable route of dispersal of the tropical species, most of them denoting a Cabo Verdean origin.

Aim To test relationships between the richness and composition of vascular plants and birds and attributes of habitat fragments using a model land‐bridge island system, and to investigate whether the effects of fragmentation differ depending on species natural history traits. Location Thousand Island Lake, China. Methods We compiled presence/absence data of vascular plant and bird species through exhaustive surveys of 41 islands. Plant species were assigned to two categories: shade‐intolerant and shade‐tolerant species; bird species were assigned to three categories: edge, interior, and generalist species. We analysed the relationships between island attributes (area, isolation, elevation, shape complexity, and perimeter to area ratio) and species richness using generalized linear models (GLMs). We also investigated patterns of composition in relation to island attributes using ordination (redundancy analysis). Results We found that island area explained a high degree of variation in the species richness of all species groups. The slope of the species–area relationship (z) was 0.16 for all plant species and 0.11 for all bird species. The lowest z‐value was for generalist birds (0.04). The species richness of the three plant species groups was associated with island area per se, while that of all, generalist, and interior birds was explained mainly by elevation, and that of edge bird species was associated primarily with island shape. Patterns of species composition were most strongly related to elevation, island shape complexity, and perimeter to area ratio rather than to island area per se. Species richness had no significant relationship with isolation, but species composition did. We also found differential responses among the species groups to changes in island attributes. Main conclusions Within the Thousand Island Lake system, the effects of fragmentation on both bird and plant species appear to be scale‐dependent and taxon‐specific. The number of plant species occurring on an island is strongly correlated with island area, and the richness of birds and the species composition of plants and birds are associated with variables related to habitat heterogeneity. We conclude that the effects of fragmentation on species diversity and composition depend not only on the degree of habitat loss but also on the specific patterns of habitat fragmentation.