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In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy.

Public attitudes and policies toward LGBTQ individuals have improved substantially in recent decades. Economists are actively shaping the discourse around these policies and contributing to our understanding of the economic lives of LGBTQ individuals. In this paper, we present the most up-to-date estimates of the size, location, demographic characteristics, and family structures of LGBTQ individuals in the United States. We describe an emerging literature on the effects of legal access to same-sex marriage on family and socioeconomic outcomes. We also summarize what is known about the size, direction, and sources of wage differentials related to variation in sexual orientation and gender identity. We conclude by describing a range of open questions in LGBTQ economics.

This paper argues that contemporary processes of extended urbanisation, which include suburbanisation, post-suburbanisation and peri-urbanisation, may result in increased vulnerability to infectious disease spread. Through a review of existing literature at the nexus of urbanisation and infectious disease, we consider how this (potential) increased vulnerability to infectious diseases in peri– or suburban areas is in fact dialectically related to socio-material transformations on the metropolitan edge. In particular, we highlight three key factors influencing the spread of infectious disease that have been identified in the literature: demographic change, infrastructure and governance. These have been chosen given both the prominence of these themes and their role in shaping the spread of disease on the urban edge. Further, we suggest how a landscape political ecology framework can be useful for examining the role of socioecological transformations in generating increased risk of infectious disease in peri–and suburban areas. To illustrate our arguments we will draw upon examples from various re-emerging infectious disease events and outbreaks around the world to reveal how extended urbanisation in the broadest sense has amplified the conditions necessary for the spread of infectious diseases. We thus call for future research on the spatialities of health and disease to pay attention to how variegated patterns of extended urbanisation may influence possible outbreaks and the mechanisms through which such risks can be alleviated. 本文认为，当代的扩展城市化进程，包括郊区化、后郊区化和周边城市化，可能会导致传染病传播方面脆弱性的增加。通过回顾现有的关于城市化和传染病之间关系的文献，我们研究这种（潜在的 ）周边或郊区传染病脆弱性的增加与大都市边缘的社会物质转变之间是如何辩证相关的。特别是，我们强调了文献中确定的影响传染病传播的三个关键因素：人口变化、基础设施和治理。鉴于这些主题的突出性及其在城市边缘疾病传播中的作用，我们选择了这些主题。此外，我们提出了景观政治生态框架在研究社会生态转变对周边和郊区传染病风险增高的影响方面的作用。为了说明我们的论点，我们将使用世界各地各种重新出现的传染病事件和爆发的例子，揭示了最广以上的城市化扩展如何扩大了传染病传播的必要条件。因此，我们呼吁，在未来对健康和疾病的空间关系的研究中，应关注各种不同的扩展城市化模式对疾病爆发风险的影响，以及减轻这种风险的机制。

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980–2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980–2010.

This paper synthesizes insights from new global data on the effeaiveness of migration policies. It investigates the complex links between migration policies and migration trends to disentangle policy effects from structural migration determinants. The analysis challenges two central assumptions underpinning the popular idea that migration restrictions have failed to curb migration. First, post-WWII global migration levels have not accelerated, but remained relatively stable while most shifts in migration patterns have been directional. Second, post-WWII migration policies have generally liberalized despite political rhetoric suggesting the contrary. While migration policies are generally effective, \"substitution effects\" can limit their effeaiveness, or even make them counterproduaive, by geographically diverting migration, interrupting circulation, encouraging unauthorized migration, or prompting \"now or never\" migration surges. These effeas expose fundamental policy dilemmas and highlight the importance of understanding the economic, social, and political trends that shape migration in sometimes counterintuitive, but powerful, ways that largely lie beyond the reach of migration policies.

We calibrate an overlapping-generations model with a rich demographic structure to observed and projected changes in U.S. population, family composition, life expectancy, and labor market activity. The model indicates that demographic factors associated with the post-war baby boom pushed up real interest rates and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 1960 to the 1980s. Since the 1980s, the model accounts for a little more than a 1-percentage-point decline in both real GDP growth and real interest rates—much of the permanent declines in those variables according to some estimates. Our model predicts GDP growth and interest rates will remain low by historical standards, consistent with a “new normal” for the U.S. economy.

This study goal to scrutinize the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on unemployment in five selected European economies. To this end, the study uses a Fourier causality test for the period of December-2019 to December-2020. In Z-test results, Germany, Spain, and the UK have a significant positive change in unemployment due to COVID-19. The finding shows that COVID-19 cases cause unemployment for Germany, Italy, and the UK. Moreover, in terms of deaths, COVID-19 also causes unemployment in Italy and UK. Overall, the study's outcomes highlight that the pandemic increases the unemployment rate robustly in the mostly European economies. That is one of the rare negative effects of the virus on the European labor market. Novel COVID-19 findings provide a reliable guide to the future policy implication for the labor market. An active labor market policy will be needed to be in front of the world urgently.

This paper documents a set of facts about the dramatic decline in birth rates in the United States between 2007 and 2020 and explores possible explanations. The overall reduction in the birth rate reflects declines across many groups of women, including teens, Hispanic women, and college-educated white women. The Great Recession contributed to the decline in the early part of this period, but we are unable to identify any other economic, policy, or social factor that has changed since 2007 that is responsible for much of the decline beyond that. Mechanically, the falling birth rate can be attributed to changes in birth patterns across recent cohorts of women moving through childbearing age. We conjecture that the \"shifting priorities\" of more recent cohorts, reflecting changes in preferences for having children, aspirations for life, and parenting norms, may be responsible. We conclude with a brief discussion about the societal consequences for a declining birth rate and what the United States might do about it.

The Trump presidency generated concern about democratic backsliding and renewed interest in measuring the national democratic performance of the United States. However, the US has a decentralized form of federalism that administers democratic institutions at the state level. Using 51 indicators of electoral democracy from 2000 to 2018, I develop a measure of subnational democratic performance, the State Democracy Index. I then test theories of democratic expansion and backsliding based in party competition, polarization, demographic change, and the group interests of national party coalitions. Difference-in-differences results suggest a minimal role for all factors except Republican control of state government, which dramatically reduces states’ democratic performance during this period. This result calls into question theories focused on changes within states. The racial, geographic, and economic incentives of groups in national party coalitions may instead determine the health of democracy in the states.

Entrepreneurship requires energy and creativity as well as business acumen. Some factors that contribute to entrepreneurship decline with age, but business skills increase with experience in high-level positions. Having too many older workers in society slows entrepreneurship. When older workers occupy key positions, they block younger workers from acquiring skills. A theory is formulated and tested using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data. A one standard deviation decrease in a country’s median age increases new business formation by 2.5 percentage points, which is about 40 percent of the mean rate. Furthermore, older societies have lower rates of entrepreneurship at every age.