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National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0–42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2–55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Men who have sex with Men (MSM) are currently at marked risk for HIV infection in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Estimates of HIV prevalence rates have been consistently higher among MSM than for the general population of reproductive-age men virtually wherever MSM have been well studied. Although scarce, HIV incidence data support findings of high acquisition and transmission risks among MSM in multiple contexts, cultural settings, and economic levels. Research among MSM in LMICs has been limited by the criminalization and social stigmatization of these behaviors, the safety considerations for study participants, the hidden nature of these populations, and a lack of targeted funding. Available evidence from these countries suggests that structural risks social, economic, political, or legal factors in addition to individual-level risk factors are likely to play important roles in shaping HIV risks and treatment and care options for these men. Services and resources for populations of MSM remain markedly low in many settings. They have limited coverage and access to HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment, and care services with some estimates suggesting that fewer than one in ten MSM worldwide have access to the most basic package of preventive interventions.

Human rhinovirus (HRV) is a highly prevalent pathogen and a major cause of acute respiratory tract infection (ARTI). HRV express less seasonality than other viral ARTIs, which typically appear as seasonal epidemics lasting for 1–2 months. The aim of this study was to investigate the seasonal patterns of HRV types over four consecutive years in one geographic region. HRV identified in respiratory samples from 114 patients over a four-year period were analysed by VP4/VP2 sequencing. HRV-A was found in 64, HRV-B in 11 and HRV-C in 37 cases. Overall, 33 different HRV-A types, nine B types and 21 C types were found. As many as 21 of the HRV types appeared during several seasons, with a maximum time-span of four years. Some types appeared during successive seasons and, in some cases, phylogenetic analysis indicated extended periods of circulation locally. Most of the strains were closely related to HRV identified in other parts of the world during the same time period. HRV strains that circulate locally represent many types and seem to reflect that HRV infections are highly globalised. The existence of simultaneous or successive epidemics with different HRV types in combination with the ability of each type to remain in the local population over extended periods of time may contribute to explaining the high rate of HRV infections.

Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI) in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis) = -12.17+ (age × 0.11) + (BMI (kg/m(2)) × 0.23) + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol)×(-0.013)) + (Platelet count (x10(9)/L) × (-0.018)) + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96). The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98). In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

This book looks primarily at Cardio Vascular Disease (CVD) and tobacco use because they account for a disproportionate amount of the Non Communicable Disease (NCD) burden the focus is strategic rather than comprehensive. It considers both country and regional level approaches for tackling NCDs, as many of the issues and challenges of mounting an effective response are common to most South Asian countries. The prevention and control of NCDs constitute a development issue that low-income countries in South Asia are already facing. Both country and regional-level strategies are important because many of the issues and challenges of mounting an effective response to NCDs are common to most South Asian countries, even though their disease burden profiles vary. Hence, the rationale for this book is that strategic decisions for prevention and treatment of NCDs can effectively address the future burden of disease, promote healthy aging, and increase the potential benefit from the demographic transition, thus contributing to economic development. This book's goal is to encourage countries to develop, adopt, and implement effective and timely country and regional responses that reduce the population-level risk factors and NCD disease burden.

Background Inconsistent results for coffee consumption and bladder cancer (BC) risk have been shown in epidemiological studies. This research aims to increase the understanding of the association between coffee consumption and BC risk by bringing together worldwide case–control studies on this topic. Methods Data were collected from 13 case–control comprising of 5,911 cases and 16,172 controls. Pooled multivariate odds ratios (ORs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were obtained using multilevel logistic regression models. Furthermore, linear dose–response relationships were examined using fractional polynomial models. Results No association of BC risk was observed with coffee consumption among smokers. However, after adjustment for age, gender, and smoking, the risk was significantly increased for never smokers (ever vs. never coffee consumers: OR model2 1.30, 95% CI 1.06–1.59; heavy (> 4 cups/day) coffee consumers vs. never coffee consumers: OR model2 1.52, 95% CI 1.18–1.97, p trend = 0.23). In addition, dose–response analyses, in both the overall population and among never smokers, also showed a significant increased BC risk for coffee consumption of more than four cups per day. Among smokers, a significant increased BC risk was shown only after consumption of more than six cups per day. Conclusion This research suggests that positive associations between coffee consumption and BC among never smokers but not smokers.

Purpose The need of patellar resurfacing in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is a subject of debate. This systematic review of overlapping meta-analyses aimed to assess and analyze current evidence regarding patellar resurfacing and non-resurfacing in TKA. Methods A systematic literature search was performed in March 2017 in PubMed, CINAHL and Cochrane Library. Inclusion criteria were meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials that compared TKA with and without patellar resurfacing considering as outcomes re-operations rate, complications, anterior knee pain, functional scores. The quality of meta-analyses was evaluated with AMSTAR score and the most relevant meta-analysis was determined by applying the Jadad algorithm. Results Ten meta-analyses, published between 2005 and 2015, were included in the systematic review. Two studies found a significantly increased Knee Society Score in the resurfacing group. According to four meta-analyses, anterior knee pain incidence was lower in resurfacing group. Six of the included studies described a greater risk of re-intervention in the non-resurfacing groups. The overall quality of included studies was moderate. The most relevant meta-analysis reported no differences in functional scores and incidence of anterior knee pain between the groups. Conclusions Comparable outcomes were found when comparing patellar resurfacing and non-resurfacing in TKA. The higher risk of re-operations after non-resurfacing should be interpreted with caution due to the methodological limitations of the meta-analyses regarding search criteria, heterogeneity and the inherent bias of easier indication to reoperation when the patella is not resurfaced. There is no clear superiority of patellar resurfacing compared to patellar retention. Level of evidence Level II, systematic review of meta-analyses.

Motivated by the need to understand how crises affect human development in diverse segments of the population, this book explores how individuals and households cope with the changes and stresses induced by economic crises. It examines how these impacts and coping mechanisms differ across cultural and institutional contexts and looks at how best to protect the most vulnerable from lasting harm and the degradation of human capital. Financial crises, at both the global and the national level, are ubiquitous. Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) provide the invaluable lesson that over the past 800 years a major crisis has happened roughly once every 20 years. This pattern raises concern about the human impacts of crises, especially among more vulnerable people in developing countries. During the most recent global financial crisis, international organizations, bilateral development agencies, and civil society organizations all expressed concern about the ongoing 'human crisis.' The global community has become alarmed that the crisis could reverse recent progress in poverty reduction and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Human development is at the core of economic development. Human capital accumulation at all stages from the antenatal environment through early childhood and adolescence helps facilitate the transition to a healthy and productive adulthood and break the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Shortfalls or setbacks at any stage of the life course may have severe consequences for individual development as well as for the growth and development of successful communities. The work presented in this volume deepens our understanding of how shocks affect children and youth in two ways. First, the authors aggregate the evidence on various developmental outcomes across developmental stages from conception to adulthood. Second, the authors show that the impact of crises will differ according to the social and environmental contexts in which the child or young person grows and that shocks can in turn affect those contexts. The authors hope to understand the short- and long-term impacts of crises, and whether we can identify particular protective factors that support children's recovery from the worst ravages of the crisis. The focus on transmission mechanisms, the pathways of influence, leads to a set of broad policy recommendations for enhancing both protection and recovery.

Background Tooth-coloured polymer-based dental filling materials are currently the first choice for dental restorative treatment in many countries. However, there are some concerns about their safety. It has been shown that substances known as endocrine disrupters, which might pass through the placental barrier, are released from these materials within the first hours after curing. Thus, the placement of polymer-based dental fillings in pregnant women may put the vulnerable foetus at risk. Large epidemiological studies exploring the risk of having polymer-based dental materials placed during pregnancy are lacking. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the placement of polymer-based dental fillings during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes. Methods This study is based on data from the large Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study (MoBa). The information about dental treatment during pregnancy was obtained from questionnaires sent to the participating women during weeks 17 and 30 of pregnancy. Reported placement of “white fillings” was used as exposure marker for having received polymer-based dental filling materials. Only singleton births were included in the present study. Data were linked to the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Logistic regression models that included the mother’s age, level of education, body mass index, parity, and smoking and alcohol consumption during pregnancy were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Different adverse birth outcomes were of interest in the present study. Results Valid data were available from 90,886 pregnancies. Dentist consultation during pregnancy was reported by 33,727 women, 10,972 of whom had white fillings placed. The adjusted logistic regression models showed no statistically significant association between having white dental fillings placed during pregnancy and stillbirth, malformations, preterm births, and low or high birth weight. Conclusions In this study, women who reported white fillings placed during pregnancy had no increased risk for adverse birth outcomes compared with women who did not consult a dentist during pregnancy. Thus, our findings do not support the hypothesis of an association between placement of polymer-based fillings during pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes.

The overview summarizes the evaluation of community responses (15 studies, including 11 evaluations carried out in 8 countries). It presents the evaluation questions, the methodology, the key results achieved by community responses along the continuum of prevention, treatment, care and support, and the resulting policy and programmatic implications. Before the scale-up of the international response to the AIDS pandemic, community responses in developing countries played a crucial role in providing services and care for those affected. This study is the first comprehensive, mixed-method evaluation of the impact of that response. The evaluation finds that community response can be effective at increasing knowledge of HIV, promoting social empowerment, increasing access to and use of HIV services, and even decreasing HIV incidence, all through the effective mobilization of limited resources. By effectively engaging with this powerful community structure, future HIV and AIDS programs can ensure that communities continue to contribute to the global response to HIV and AIDS.