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We summarize the estimates from over 200 recent studies of active labor market programs. We classify the estimates by type of program and participant group, and distinguish between three different post-program time horizons. Using regression models for the estimated program effect (for studies that model the probability of employment) and for the sign and significance of the estimated effect (for all the studies in our sample) we conclude that: (1) average impacts are close to zero in the short run, but become more positive 2–3 years after completion of the program; (2) the time profile of impacts varies by type of program, with larger average gains for programs that emphasize human capital accumulation; (3) there is systematic heterogeneity across participant groups, with larger impacts for females and participants who enter from long term unemployment; (4) active labor market programs are more likely to show positive impacts in a recession.

This paper studies the differential persistent effects of initial economic conditions for labor market entrants in the United States from 1976 to 2015 by education, gender, and race using labor force survey data. We find persistent earnings and wage reductions, especially for less advantaged entrants, that increases in government support only partly offset. We confirm that the results are unaffected by selective migration and labor market entry by also using a double-weighted average unemployment rate at labor market entry for each birth cohort and state-of-birth cell based on average state migration rates and average cohort education rates from census data.

BACKGROUND : This study further develops Goldstein et al.'s (2013) analysis of the fertility response to the Great Recession in western economies. OBJECTIVE : The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the fertility reaction to different indicators of the crisis. Beyond the structural labor market conditions, I investigate the dependence of fertility rates on economic policy uncertainty, government financial risk, and consumer confidence. METHODS : Following Goldstein et al. (2013), I use log-log models to assess the elasticity of age-, parity-, and education-specific fertility rates to an array of indicators. Besides the inclusion of a wider set of explanatory variables, I include more recent data (2000-2013) and I enlarge the sample to 31 European countries plus the United States. RESULTS : Fertility response to unemployment in some age-and parity-specific groups has been, in more recent years, larger than estimated by Goldstein et al. (2013). Female unemployment has also been significantly reducing fertility rates. Among uncertainty measures, the drop in consumer confidence is strongly related to fertility decline and in Southern European countries the fertility response to sovereign debt risk is comparable to that of unemployment. Economic policy uncertainty is negatively related to TFR even when controlling for unemployment. CONCLUSIONS : Theoretical and empirical investigation is needed to develop more tailored measures of economic and financial insecurity and their impact on birth rates. CONTRIBUTION : The study shows the nonnegligible influence of economic and financial uncertainty on birth rates during the Great Recession in Western economies, over and above that of structural labor market conditions.

This paper establishes a new fact about the compositional changes in the pool of unemployed over the US business cycle. Using microdata from the Current Population Survey for the years 1962-2012, it documents that in recessions the pool of unemployed shifts toward workers with high wages in their previous job and that these shifts are driven by the high cyclicality of separations for high-wage workers. The paper finds that standard theories of wage setting and unemployment have difficulty in explaining these patterns and evaluates a number of alternative theories that do better in accounting for the new fact.

We investigate to what extent individual transitions to vocational training in Germany have been affected by local labour-market conditions. A statistical decomposition approach is developed and applied, allowing for a systematic differentiation between long-term change, short-term fluctuations, and structural regional differences in labour-market conditions. To study individual-level consequences for transitions to vocational training, regionalized labour-market data are merged with longitudinal data from the National Educational Panel Study, and multivariate transition-rate models are fitted. The results indicate that structural differences between regions have had significant effects on the transition behaviour of school leavers, whereas temporary crises have been of only minor relevance. Moreover, different groups have been affected to different degrees by varying labour-market conditions. We also highlight the usefulness of our decomposition approach for a broader set of applications.

HIV/AIDS (Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immune deficiency syndrome) not only has a strong impact on the health of the worldwide population but also affects the labour status of HIV-positive people. The primary aim of this paper is to compare the labour participation of people living with HIV (PlwHIV) with the labour participation of the general population along the last business cycle in Spain. The data used are from the Hospital Survey on HIV-AIDS, with a total sample size of 4,651 PlwHIV and the Labour Force Survey from 2001 to 2010, with a total sample size of 660,674 individuals as general population. Propensity Score Matching method was used to analyse the differences between the labour participation of PlwHIV and the general population. Additionally, several specific models categorised into different subgroups (gender, education, source of infection and level of defences) were also performed. We identified a convergence in labour participation across the period in the two populations considered: PlwHIV was 23% less likely to have a job than the general population during 2001-2002 and 14% less likely during 2009-2010. This convergence is mainly explained by two facts: first, the positive evolution of people infected by sex; second, the change in the PlwHIV population composition with a decreasing weight of people infected by drug use throughout the decade. Thereby, at the end of period, there was no statistical difference in the employment rate between PlwHIV infected through sex and the general population but there was strongly difference in PlwHIV infected through drugs. Inmunological status, source of infection and level of education play a relevant role among the PlwHIV population when comparing their labour participation with the general population. In spite of this positive result, the likelihood of being employed in HIV-positive people continues to be different from that of non-carriers. Our study shows that institutional features of labour markets are relevant and should be considered in comparison between countries.

This article analyses the Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) concept and related indicators and its effects on both youth policies and the perception of young people. It is argued that a \"weak version\" of social exclusion is often used to explain the phenomenon. This leads both to defective policies (as a \"victim blaming\" approach tends to be developed instead of structural policies) and to the negative labelling of the NEET young people (as research and policies tend to focus on the individual's deficits and thus associate them with negative values). An alternative indicator is proposed, aimed at reducing the heterogeneity of the situations the concept includes and focus on the core NEET group. This restricted concept centres on those individuals who do not seem to have any objective impediment to study or work. Figures are calculated for the Spanish region of Catalonia and results show a lower proportion of people in a NEET situation; that the NEET rates for young people and adults are similar; that the phenomenon is not new; and confirm that it is related to the risk of social exclusion. These results reinforce the need for an approach which is more sensitive to inequalities to improve our understanding of the NEET population and to avoid the stigmatisation of individuals, generations and countries.

The business cycle is likely to be of importance for self-employment rates. When the economy is growing, business opportunities open up and encourage the setup of new firms. In downturns, self-employment may be a way to avoid unemployment. The strength of these pull and push factors may depend on the amount of human capital a person has. The findings in this paper show that although the local business cycle is of minor importance for total self-employment rates in Sweden, there are heterogeneous effects across groups. People with higher human capital endowments are more likely to be pulled into self-employment, while those with lower human capital endowments are to a larger extent pushed into self-employment. This pattern is particularly strong for women. The study contributes to our knowledge of how individuals respond to business cycle changes as well as towards understanding why the association between the business cycle and self-employment rates differ across countries.

Over the past two decades, technological progress in the United States has been biased toward skilled labor. What does this imply for business cycles? We construct a quarterly skill premium from the CPS and use it to identify skill-biased technology shocks in a VAR with long-run zero and sign restrictions. Hours fall in response to skill-biased technology shocks, indicating that part of the technology-induced fall in hours is due to a compositional shift in labor demand. Investment-specific technology shocks reduce the skill premium, indicating that capital and skill are not complementary in aggregate production.