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More than 41 000 water bodies are listed as impaired by the US Environmental Protection Agency under the Clean Water Act. Implementation and enforcement of regulations designed to address these impairments can be costly, raising questions about the value of the public benefits derived from improved surface water quality. Here, we assess the recreational value of changes in water quality using freely available geotagged photographs, taken by members of the public, as a proxy for recreational visits to lakes. We found that improved water clarity is associated with increased numbers of visits to lakes and that lake users were willing to incur greater costs to visit clearer lakes. Lake users were willing to travel 56 minutes farther (equivalent to US$22 in travel costs) for every one-meter increase in water clarity in Minnesota and Iowa lakes, when controlling for other lake attributes. Our approach demonstrates the potential for social-media data to inform social-ecological research, including assessment of the recreational benefits of improvements in water quality.

Lakes are a central component of the carbon cycle, both mineralizing terrestrially derived organic matter and storing substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) in their sediments. However, the rates and controls on OC burial by lakes remain uncertain, as do the possible effects of future global change processes. To address these issues, we derived OC burial rates in 210Pb-dated sediment cores from 116 small Minnesota lakes that cover major climate and land-use gradients. Rates for individual lakes presently range from 7 to 127 g C m–2 yr–1 and have increased by up to a factor of 8 since Euro-American settlement (mean increase: 2.8×). Mean pre-disturbance OC burial rates were similar (14–22 g C m–2 yr–1) across all land-cover categories (prairie, mixed deciduous and boreal forest), indicating minimal effect of the regional temperature gradient (approx. 4°C) on background carbon burial. The relationship between modern OC burial rates and temperature was also not significant after removal of the effect of total phosphorus. Contemporary burial rates were strongly correlated with lake-water nutrients and the extent of agricultural land cover in the catchment. Increased OC burial, documented even in relatively undisturbed boreal lake ecosystems, indicates a possible role for atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Our results suggest that globally, future land-cover change, intensification of agriculture and associated nutrient loading together with atmospheric N-deposition will enhance OC sequestration by lakes.

Secchi depth (SD), a primary metric to assess trophic state, is controlled in many lakes by algal densities, measured as chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration. Two other optically related water quality variables also directly affect SD: non-algal suspended solids (SSNA) and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM, expressed as the absorption coefficient at 440 nm, a 440). Using a database of ~1,460 samples from ~625 inland lake basins in Minnesota and two other Upper Midwest states, Wisconsin and Michigan, we analyzed relationships among these variables, with special focus on CDOM levels that influence SD values and the Minnesota SD standards used to assess eutrophication impairment of lakes. Log-transformed chl-a, total suspended solids (TSS), and SD were strongly correlated with each other; log(a 440) had major effects on log(SD) but was only weakly correlated with log(chl-a) and log(TSS). Multiple regression models for log(SD) and 1/SD based on the three driving variables (chl-a, SSNA, and CDOM) explained ~80% of the variance in SD in the whole data set, but substantial differences in the form of the best-fit relationships were found between major ecoregions. High chl-a concentrations (< 50 μg/L) and TSS (< 20 mg/L) rarely occurred in lakes with high CDOM (a 440 > ~4 m−1), and all lakes with a 440 > 8 m−1 had SD ≤ 2.0 m despite low chl-a values (<10 μg/L) in most lakes. Further statistical analyses revealed that CDOM has significant effects on SD at a 440 values > ~4 m−1. Thus, SD is not an accurate trophic state metric in moderately to highly colored lakes, and Minnesota’s 2-m SD criterion should not be the sole metric to assess eutrophication impairment in warm/cool-water lakes of the Northern Lakes and Forest ecoregion. More generally, trophic state assessments using SD in regions with large landscape sources of CDOM need to account for effects of CDOM on SD.

CONTEXT: Climate change will have diverse and interacting effects on forests over the next century. One of the most pronounced effects may be a decline in resistance to chronic change and resilience to acute disturbances. The capacity for forests to persist and/or adapt to climate change remains largely unknown, in part because there is not broad agreement how to measure and apply resilience concepts. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the interactions of climate change, resistance, resilience, diversity, and alternative management of northern Great Lake forests. METHODS: We simulated two landscapes (northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan), three climate futures (current climate, a low emissions trajectory, and a high emissions trajectory), and four management regimes [business as usual, expanded forest reserves, modified silviculture, and climate suitable planting (CSP)]. We simulated each scenario with a forest landscape simulation model. We assessed resistance as the change in species composition over time. We assessed resilience and calculated an index of resilience that incorporated both recovery of pre-fire tree species composition and aboveground biomass within simulated burned areas. RESULTS: Results indicate a positive relationship between diversity and resistance within low diversity areas. Simulations of the high emission climate future resulted in a decline in both resistance and resilience. CONCLUSIONS: Of the management regimes, the CSP regime resulted in some of the greatest resilience under climate change although our results suggest that differences in forest management are largely outweighed by the effects of climate change. Our results provide a framework for assessing resistance and resilience relevant and valuable to a broad array of ecological systems.

Aim Biotic homogenization (BH), a reduction in the distinctness of species composition between geographically separated ecological communities in a region, is an important but underappreciated potential consequence of biological invasions. While BH theory has always considered invasions, it has generally been in a relatively narrow context that the cosmopolitan nature of invasive species increases BH because of their shared presence across many locations. We sought to evaluate this component of BH as well as broader effects of invasive species on BH through changes in native communities, including overall reductions in species richness or shifts in species composition. Location Minnesota, USA. Time period 2002–2014. Major taxa studied Aquatic macrophytes, including both vascular plants and attached macroalgae. Methods We used surveys of aquatic macrophyte communities from 1,102 shallow lakes in Minnesota, USA (including 248 lakes with repeated surveys) to evaluate relationships between invasion, native species and BH. Results We found that the presence of invasive species was associated with BH and that this pattern was reflected in both the total community (i.e., with invasive species included) and in the composition of the native species community alone. We found that invaded lakes were more compositionally similar to each other than uninvaded lakes, but that both groups were becoming more similar over time—despite neither group exhibiting declines in species richness. This pattern was largely driven by shifts in the native community itself, with common species becoming more widespread and rare species becoming rarer. Main conclusions Invasive species increase measures of community similarity through their own presence in multiple locations, and also by influencing the composition of native species. These patterns have important implications for conservation and management and suggest that BH should be considered more widely in evaluating the impacts of biological invasions and developing response strategies.

Climate projections for three future shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios from six CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) were dynamically downscaled over Minnesota with the regional Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to a lake model at 4‐km horizontal resolution representing energy and moisture fluxes over more than 60 lakes inside the state borders. Warming over Minnesota is projected to increase in all seasons, especially in winter. Snow depth and lake ice cover is expected to decrease. However, compared to GCM projections, our results show stronger increases in spring and early summer precipitation, potentially from the extra evaporation over lakes. This trend especially manifests in heavier precipitation events. Precipitation is expected to decrease during the peak growing season in middle and late summer. We anticipate that temperature and precipitation values will be significantly different by the middle and end of the 21st century, respectively, from what has been observed at the beginning of the 21st century. Winters and summers are expected to be up to 7 and 4°C warmer, respectively, especially over northern and central Minnesota. Average spring precipitation may increase by more than 1 mm d−1 over central Minnesota. Despite generally stronger precipitation, winter snow depth is projected to decrease by more than 12 cm, especially around the Lake Superior shores and in northern Minnesota. Lake ice cover is projected to decrease by more than half over deeper lakes. The number of lake ice days per year and days per year with snow depth of more than 2.54 cm may decrease by up to 70 and 55, respectively.

Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000-2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region (northeastern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan, USA). We compared current climate to low- and high-emission futures. We simulated a low-emission climate future with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 B1 emission scenario and the Parallel Climate Model Global Circulation Model (GCM). We simulated a high-emission climate future with the IPCC A1FI emission scenario and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM. We compared current forest management practices (business-as-usual) to CSP management. In the CSP scenario, we simulated a target planting of 5.28% and 4.97% of forested area per five-year time step in the Minnesota and Michigan landscapes, respectively. We found that simulated CSP species successfully established in both landscapes under all climate scenarios. The presence of CSP species generally increased simulated aboveground biomass. Species diversity increased due to CSP; however, the effect on functional diversity was variable. Because the planted species were functionally similar to many native species, CSP did not result in a consistent increase nor decrease in functional diversity. These results provide an assessment of the potential efficacy and limitations of CSP management. These results have management implications for sites where diversity and productivity are expected to decline. Future efforts to restore a specific species or forest type may not be possible, but CSP may sustain a more general ecosystem service (e.g., aboveground biomass).

Aim: Spatial extent is inherently related to the potential roles of the main mechanisms structuring metacommunities. We examined the effects of varying spatial extent (ecological province, region and subregion) on the environmental and spatial components of variation in lake macrophyte communities. We also studied these effects separately for three macrophyte functional groups. Location: The US state of Minnesota. Methods: We examined average and heterogeneity differences in macrophyte community composition and environmental variation among the subregions of Minnesota using canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP) and homogeneity of multivariate dispersion (PERMDISP), respectively. We further used partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) to decompose variation in macrophyte community composition between environmental variables and spatial location at each spatial extent and geographical region. Spatial variables were derived using principal coordinates of neighbour matrices (PCNM) analysis. Results: CAP and PERMDISP analyses showed that the subregions differed both in average community composition and in the heterogeneity of community composition for all macrophyte taxa, for emergent and submerged macrophytes, but not for non-rooted macrophytes. We did not, however, find significant differences in overall environmental heterogeneity among the subregions. Variation partitioning using pRDAs showed that species sorting is more important than spatial processes for macrophytes, although these patterns were relatively weak. There was, however, much regional specificity, with the environmental and spatial fractions of community composition varying widely at different spatial extents, among different geographical regions and among functional groups. Contrary to our initial expectations, we did not find increasing spatial structuring and decreasing environmental control with increasing spatial extent. Main conclusions: Our findings indicate that, in macrophyte metacommunities, the relative contribution of spatial processes and environmental control varies rather unpredictably with spatial extent and geographical region. Our findings are thus of importance in advancing metacommunity ecology by showing that drawing wide-ranging conclusions based on a single spatial extent or a single geographical region may be unwise.

Shallow lake managers seek strategies to improve water quality and ecological features of these habitats, but lake responses are unpredictable and factors responsible for changes are often unclear. We summarized results of eight whole-lake rehabilitation projects in Minnesota, USA, an area with many shallow waters highly impacted by anthropogenic activities. To assess lake responses, we compared characteristics of managed sites to those of other regional shallow lakes manifesting clear- or turbid-state conditions. Managed lakes showed modest similarity to clear-water reference lakes in terms of phytoplankton (as chlorophyll a ), nutrients, and submerged aquatic plants. Responses of aquatic invertebrate communities were more equivocal, with relatively little similarity to clear-water sites following management. These patterns indicate that these lakes either failed to undergo transitions to clear-water states, or that clear-water conditions did not persist throughout the 2–3 year period following treatment and prior to our evaluation. We believe these results show responses of shallow lakes that have been pushed beyond boundaries where they maintain sufficient natural resilience to resist local stressors. This means that shallow lake rehabilitation efforts will not always succeed and that, when improvements occur, management may need to be repeated to maintain favorable ecological conditions in highly modified landscapes.