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Global warming in response to accumulation of human‐induced greenhouse gases inside the atmosphere has already caused several visible consequences, among them increase of the Earth's mean temperature and ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn are causing sea level to rise. Sea level rise and its impacts on coastal zones have become a question of growing interest in the scientific community, as well as in the media and public. In this review paper, we summarize the most up‐to‐date knowledge about sea level rise and its causes, highlighting the regional variability that superimposes the global mean rise. We also present sea level projections for the 21st century under different warming scenarios. We next address the issue of the sea level rise impacts. We question whether there is already observational evidence of coastal impacts of sea level rise and highlight the fact that results differ from one location to another. This suggests that the response of coastal systems to sea level rise is highly dependent on local natural and human settings. We finally show that in spite of remaining uncertainties about future sea levels and related impacts, it becomes possible to provide preliminary assessment of regional impacts of sea level rise. Key Points We summarize the most up‐to‐date knowledge about sea level rise and its causes Sea level rise is not uniform and displays regional variability Impacts of sea level rise on coastal hazards will depend on many local factors

The Copernicus Sentinel-3 Surface Topography Mission (STM) Land Altimetry provides valuable surface elevation information over inland waters, sea ice, and land ice, thanks to its synthetic aperture radar (SAR) altimeter and its orbit that covers high-latitude polar regions. To ensure that these measurements are reliable and to maximise the return on investment, adequate validation of the geophysical retrieval methods, processing algorithms, and corrections must be performed using independent observations. The EU-ESA project St3TART (started July 2021) aims to generalise the concept of Fiducial Reference Measurements (FRMs) for the Copernicus Sentinel-3 STM. This work has gathered existing data, made new observations during field campaigns, and ensured that these observations meet the criteria of FRM standards so that they can be used to validate Sentinel-3 STM Land Altimetry products operationally. A roadmap for the operational provision of the FRM, including the definition, consolidation, and identification of the most relevant and cost-effective methods and protocols to be maintained, supported, or implemented, has been developed. The roadmap includes guidelines for SI traceability, definitions of FRM measurement procedures, processing methods, and uncertainty budget estimations.

The Arctic is warming at nearly three times the global average, driving profound shifts in its hydrological cycle. Yet, the impacts of this rapid warming on extreme runoff events—key to ice mass balance, ecosystem dynamics, and global climate feedbacks—remain poorly quantified. Here, we analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of summer extreme runoff across the permanent land ice Arctic area from 1980 to 2020 based on high-resolution regional climate model simulations (MARv3.11). Extreme runoff is defined as summer runoff exceeding the 90th, 95th, or 99th percentile of modeled runoff distributions, consistent with established climate extreme thresholds. We then identify regional hotspots and quantify changes in the fraction of extreme runoff relative to total summer runoff, as well as shifts in its magnitude and drivers. Greenland contributes to most of the land ice Arctic extreme runoff area, accounting for 63% of the total, followed by Baffin (14%) and Ellesmere (8%). Our results reveal a marked intensification of extreme runoff, most notably in the Western Arctic. The fraction of extreme runoff has significantly increased, particularly in Greenland (+46%), Ellesmere (+38%), and Devon (+31%) (1980–2020 vs 2000–2020). In Ellesmere, the spatial extent of extreme runoff has expanded nearly 400%. Overall, the contribution of extreme runoff to total runoff increased by 20%–30% (1980–2020 vs 2000–2020) across the Arctic, with the largest increases in Ellesmere and Devon. A clear West-East gradient is evident, with statistically significant trends in the Western Arctic and more moderate changes in the East. For example, Iceland and Franz Josef Land show only modest increases in the fraction of extreme runoff (+11% and +2%, respectively). These patterns are consistent across multiple thresholds for extreme runoff (90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and remain robust after detrending. This intensification of extreme runoff is linked to increases in anticyclonic circulation in the Western Arctic. The results have far-reaching implications, including increased freshwater discharge into the Arctic Ocean and the potential disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

We use updated drainage inventory, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to calculate the grounding line ice discharge of 176 basins draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1979 to 2017. We compare the results with a surface mass balance model to deduce the ice sheet mass balance. The total mass loss increased from 40 ± 9 Gt/y in 1979–1990 to 50 ± 14 Gt/y in 1989–2000, 166 ± 18 Gt/y in 1999–2009, and 252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017. In 2009–2017, the mass loss was dominated by the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea sectors, in West Antarctica (159 ± 8 Gt/y), Wilkes Land, in East Antarctica (51 ± 13 Gt/y), and West and Northeast Peninsula (42 ± 5 Gt/y). The contribution to sea-level rise from Antarctica averaged 3.6 ± 0.5 mm per decade with a cumulative 14.0 ± 2.0 mm since 1979, including 6.9 ± 0.6 mm from West Antarctica, 4.4 ± 0.9 mm from East Antarctica, and 2.5 ± 0.4 mm from the Peninsula (i.e., East Antarctica is a major participant in the mass loss). During the entire period, the mass loss concentrated in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface, circumpolar deep water (CDW), that is, consistent with enhanced polar westerlies pushing CDW toward Antarctica to melt its floating ice shelves, destabilize the glaciers, and raise sea level.

Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections. Here we assess a large ensemble simulation of the CMIP5 model ‘GFDL ESM2M’ that accounts for RCP8.5-projected Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater. We find that, relative to the standard RCP8.5 scenario, accounting for meltwater delays the exceedance of the maximum global-mean atmospheric warming targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius by more than a decade, enhances drying of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces drying of the Northern Hemisphere, increases the formation of Antarctic sea ice (consistent with recent observations of increasing Antarctic sea-ice area) and warms the subsurface ocean around the Antarctic coast. Moreover, the meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming could lead to further ice-sheet and ice-shelf melting through a positive feedback mechanism, highlighting the importance of including meltwater effects in simulations of future climate. Accounting for meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet in simulations of global climate leads to substantial changes in future climate projections and identifies a potential feedback mechanism that exacerbates melting.

Atmospheric warming threatens to accelerate the retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet by increasing surface melting and facilitating ‘hydrofracturing’ 1 – 7 , where meltwater flows into and enlarges fractures, potentially triggering ice-shelf collapse 3 – 5 , 8 – 10 . The collapse of ice shelves that buttress 11 – 13 the ice sheet accelerates ice flow and sea-level rise 14 – 16 . However, we do not know if and how much of the buttressing regions of Antarctica’s ice shelves are vulnerable to hydrofracture if inundated with water. Here we provide two lines of evidence suggesting that many buttressing regions are vulnerable. First, we trained a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) to map the surface expressions of fractures in satellite imagery across all Antarctic ice shelves. Second, we developed a stability diagram of fractures based on linear elastic fracture mechanics to predict where basal and dry surface fractures form under current stress conditions. We find close agreement between the theoretical prediction and the DCNN-mapped fractures, despite limitations associated with detecting fractures in satellite imagery. Finally, we used linear elastic fracture mechanics theory to predict where surface fractures would become unstable if filled with water. Many regions regularly inundated with meltwater today are resilient to hydrofracture—stresses are low enough that all water-filled fractures are stable. Conversely, 60 ± 10 per cent of ice shelves (by area) both buttress upstream ice and are vulnerable to hydrofracture if inundated with water. The DCNN map confirms the presence of fractures in these buttressing regions. Increased surface melting 17 could trigger hydrofracturing if it leads to water inundating the widespread vulnerable regions we identify. These regions are where atmospheric warming may have the largest impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Using a neural network trained on continent-wide data and a fracture model, the ice shelves in Antarctica that may be prone to hydrofracturing under further atmospheric warming are identified.

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt yr–1) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt yr–1), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt yr–1 in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt yr–1 in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.Meltwater entering the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves varies substantially from year to year, with consequences for Southern Ocean circulation and climate, according to remote sensing estimates of ice-shelf basal melting rates.

Understanding the causes of recent catastrophic ice shelf disintegrations is a crucial step towards improving coupled models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and predicting its future state and contribution to sea-level rise. An overlooked climate-related causal factor is regional sea ice loss. Here we show that for the disintegration events observed (the collapse of the Larsen A and B and Wilkins ice shelves), the increased seasonal absence of a protective sea ice buffer enabled increased flexure of vulnerable outer ice shelf margins by ocean swells that probably weakened them to the point of calving. This outer-margin calving triggered wider-scale disintegration of ice shelves compromised by multiple factors in preceding years, with key prerequisites being extensive flooding and outer-margin fracturing. Wave-induced flexure is particularly effective in outermost ice shelf regions thinned by bottom crevassing. Our analysis of satellite and ocean-wave data and modelling of combined ice shelf, sea ice and wave properties highlights the need for ice sheet models to account for sea ice and ocean waves. Less sea ice allowed ocean swells to flex weakened ice shelves in Antarctica, contributing to their collapse.

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean warming in the twenty-first century to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to promote further efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius 1 . The amount of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades will be consequential for global mean sea level (GMSL) on century and longer timescales through a combination of ocean thermal expansion and loss of land ice 2 . The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is Earth’s largest land ice reservoir (equivalent to 57.9 metres of GMSL) 3 , and its ice loss is accelerating 4 . Extensive regions of the AIS are grounded below sea level and susceptible to dynamical instabilities 5 – 8 that are capable of producing very rapid retreat 8 . Yet the potential for the implementation of the Paris Agreement temperature targets to slow or stop the onset of these instabilities has not been directly tested with physics-based models. Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today’s throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100—an order of magnitude faster than today 4 . More fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios 9 result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms 10 – 12 or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction. These results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded. An observationally calibrated ice sheet–shelf model suggests that global warming of 3 °C will trigger rapid Antarctic ice loss, contributing about 0.5 cm per year of sea-level rise by 2100.

To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters 1 . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so) 2 – 4 . Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today’s grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance 5 . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss 6 on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity—parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models. Radiocarbon dating of sediment cores and ice-penetrating radar observations are used to demonstrate that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has not retreated progressively during the Holocene epoch, but has instead showed periods of retreat and re-advance.