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People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have major effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Land change models can simulate future trends of ecosystem services under different scenarios to inform the actions of decision makers towards building a more sustainable society. LULC data are essential inputs for predicting future land changes. It is now possible to derive high-resolution LULC maps from satellite data using remote sensing techniques. However, the classification of land categories in these maps is too limited to sufficiently assess biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study aims to develop land-use scenarios, using an appropriate LULC map, to enable assessment of biodiversity and ecosystem services at the national scale. First, we developed an LULC dataset using vegetation inventories based on field records of vegetation collected throughout the country in the periods 1978–1987, 1988–1998 and 1999–2014. The vegetation maps consist of over 905 vegetation categories, from which we aggregated the most prevalent categories into 9 LULC categories. Second, we created a business-as-usual scenario and plausible future scenarios on the land use change maps using the Land Change Model tool. In the process of developing the model, we considered key drivers including biophysical and socio-economic factors. The results showed some key land changes as consequences of intensive/extensive land-use interventions. These derived scenario maps can be used to assess the impacts of future land change on biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Scientists increasingly cross their disciplinary boundaries and connect with local stakeholders to jointly solve complex problems. Working with stakeholders means higher legitimacy and supports practical impact of research. Games provide a tool to achieve such transdisciplinary collaboration. In this paper, we explore the use of a game in a participatory project where scientists and local stakeholders are seeking and defining a joint problem. The literature is clear that this step is essential but remains short on concrete methods. Here, we explore this potential in practice. We conducted parallel participatory processes in two alpine regions considered as socio-ecological system (SES) in Switzerland and France, both vulnerable to global change. Based on these two case studies, we co-constructed a game, integrating scientific concerns about key land use, climate change and socio-economic elements of a mountain SES (tourism, agriculture, housing and demography). With the game, we assessed the existence of joint problems connecting scientific and local interests. The game successfully engaged participants at both sites over 11 game sessions, showing potential of use in other transdisciplinary settings. By covering a wide array of issues, the game created a discussion space for listing problems and identifying where scientist and stakeholder interests overlap. In Switzerland, the game revealed no pressing joint problem to be addressed. In France, game sessions revealed, among other problems, an enduring and complex issue regarding the co-existence of inhabitants and powerful institutions. Having demonstrated the capacity of this game for joint-problem assessment, we believe other participatory research in similar SES could benefit from an early use of such an approach to frame the potential for collaboration.

An important aspect of any scientific approach to sustainability must be methods by which the impacts of possible innovations can be assessed. Clearly, we need to make massive changes in our lifestyles if we are to get anywhere near ‘sustainability’. In this paper, an ‘agent-based model’ is developed which for this initial presentation explores probable impacts on household consumption and emissions of possible innovations. The model randomly picks a large number (here 10,000, but it can be much larger) of households from four different countries and calculates the effects resulting from the adoption of specific innovations. The ‘lifestyle’ of the households within the area studied is divided into four different ‘domains’. These are living, food, mobility and energy. Innovations are launched in the four different domains and the model shows the overall effects on the total input requirements (materials, energy, etc.), the household and food wastes and the CO2 emissions, showing how far the system moves towards sustainability. By using the sustainability criteria of 8000 kg ‘input material’ per year per individual developed by the Wuppertal Institute (Lettenmeier et al. in Resources 3:488–515, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3390/resources3030488, http://www.mdpi.com/journal/resources, ISSN 2079-9276), we can calculate how far the nation or region is from sustainability after adopting possible innovations. This is a measure of the total inputs required per individual per year. It allows us to show that for different countries, with widely different climates (e.g. Finland and Spain), different household innovations would have a greater or lesser impact on attaining ‘sustainable lifestyles’. The model does not pretend to develop a full simulation of each system, including the ecosystem, type of economy, etc., but does look at the effect an innovation in one household domain will have on all four domains, thereby providing information that can improve current decisions. It also demonstrates that, although ‘households’ can do much to improve the situation by reducing their demand for energy and materials, some actions at a national/regional level will be required to achieve sustainability. For example, sustainability will require an end to the use of fossil fuels for transportation and a switch to ‘clean’ electrical power generation from renewables and nuclear sources. Without this change, these countries will find it impossible to reach a sustainable lifestyle.