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At the beginning of 2010, the fiscal situation of Greece was unsustainable, and an ambitious but costly adjustment plan had to be put in place under a consortium of the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank. It took three consecutive adjustment programmes, including debt-relief through private sector involvement, to restore confidence in the economy and achieve a budget surplus. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis starting from 2010. We build a series of counterfactuals using the National Institute General Econometric Model (NIGEM) to analyse why the cost of the adjustment in terms of GDP loss and increase in debt-to-GDP ratio turned out to be much worse than expected. In doing so, we analyse three scenarios: (i) one in which we simulate a much more conservative cut in public investment by the Greek central government; (ii) a second scenario of a lower risk-premium, signalling, e.g., lower political and re-denomination risks, had the European Central Bank guaranteed its lending of last resort role earlier than 2012; (iii) finally, a similar financial envelope as the one adopted during the first Greek adjustment programme but over a longer period, moving beyond the standard IMF three-year duration programmes. We find that the mix of expenditure cuts and loss of confidence among households and firms explain a large part of the unanticipated costs of the adjustment in the Greek crisis.

We introduce the role of ‘space’ in analyzing the effect of macroeconomic policy interventions on cross-country housing price movements. We build an empirically testable analytical model and test our theoretical predictions for a panel of European countries over the period 1985–2015. Our aim is to demonstrate that while macroeconomic policy exerts a significant impact on international housing markets, the magnitudes of such impacts may be overestimated in the absence of spatial frictions. To test our hypotheses, we employ a spatial dynamic panel method and quantify intra- and inter-country differences of the effects of macroeconomic policy interventions on spatially interdependent housing markets. Endogeneity issues arise in our estimation, which we ameliorate by employing the spatial Durbin model for panel data. Following this approach, we include spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal lags for the identification purpose. We show that a spatially-embedded model produces relatively smaller and correct signs for macroeconomic variables in contrast to the traditional non-spatial model. It is concluded that empirical estimates from the traditional model are consistently over-estimated. These have significant policy implications for the exact role of macroeconomic interventions in explaining housing price movements. A battery of robustness tests and evaluations of predictive performance confirm our results.

The water system of Beijing is a coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) featured by the interactions of the two components. An integrated system dynamics (SD) model is adopted to analyze the systematic structure of CHANS for megacities. The feedback and interactive relationships for different components can be fully understood through this model. The novelty of this study is reflected in the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods adopted to simulate and analyze the structure of water demands in Beijing using the SD model. The driving forces of water demand and their effects on water demand variation are obtained based on both the modeling results and the literatures. The structural change in water use of Beijing showed the following trends: total water demand was stable; industrial and agricultural water demands decreased; domestic water demand rapidly increased. Implications, such as adjusting macroeconomic structure, keeping population growth stable, promoting new and advanced technologies’ application, and encouraging the use of economic lever measures, are valuable lessons should be taken by other megacities with similar water shortages as Beijing. Only with the government, the public and the enterprises effectively working together will the water shortage problems be solved in such megacities like Beijing.

Since the start of EMU (Economic and Monetary Union), the euro area, and more broadly the global economy, experienced an unprecedented credit boom. The expansion of credit was particularly strong in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus and all of them subsequently needed official financial support. In each of the four programmes, financial assistance has been provided and promised against the commitment of each country to fulfil certain economic policy conditions contained in the macroeconomic adjustment programme. In general, a macroeconomic adjustment is a process driven by policies but also by changes in private spending behaviour (consumption, imports, investment) and improvement in competitiveness that countries are required to undertake after a large shock. In the case of the four countries, the shock emerged as a consequence of an excessive accumulation of imbalances in different parts of the economy: in the public sector in Greece, in the housing and banking sectors in Ireland, external imbalances in Portugal and in the banking sector in Cyprus. The paper looks at the feasibility of the fiscal adjustment comparing the macroeconomic conditions in the four countries and emphasising the role of the fiscal multipliers in the process. It also assesses the fall in the output in a comparative framework, stressing the role played by the different components of demand either in amplifying the effect of the fiscal consolidation or in offsetting it. In addition, it considers formulation of the programmes as well as their implementation with most attention devoted to reforms aiming at improving competitiveness, growth and employment in the framework of a cross-country approach.

This book is motivated by the emerging rehabilitation of industrial policies as a tool for supporting economic transformation and high rates of growth in developing countries. It argues that underperforming disciples of the Washington Consensus’ 'market fundamentalism' should learn and practice the art of systemic industrial policies, which requires a medium-long term strategic perspective and intelligent proactive state interventions in markets. However, it also stresses that rehabilitation requires that industrial policies be developed and implemented in a context of home- grown public-private alliances that avoid state 'capture' by special interests. It first examines the 'how' of industrial policy in the public sectors of ten non-Latin American countries in Asia, Europe, and Oceania that have been successful in promoting economic catch-up with rich countries, or have performed better than Latin American countries with similar resource endowments. The book defines '10+1' generic First Principles for the use, design, and execution of modern industrial policies, and then examines the experiences of nine Latin American and Caribbean governments against these First Principles. The authors identify large gaps in the organizational and operational effectiveness of their public sectors, and suggest ways to close these gaps.

This article analyzes the configuration of the active civil servant workforce of the Brazilian government during Fernando Henrique Cardoso - FHC - (1995-2002) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva - Lula - (2003-2010) mandates. The article associates the condition of the workforce of the Brazilian government with the changes in the government coalition. The residual participation of the Ministry of Health (MOH) in the direct provision of public services influenced the downward trend of the federal workforce.The implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) was strongly affected by the structural adjustment of the workforce at the federal level during the decades of 1990 and 2000.

Trade liberalization leads to long-run gains, but it can also involve costly short-run macroeconomic adjustment. The paper explores the relative importance of these effects within a dynamic general equilibrium model that captures key elements of both international trade and macroeconomic models. The welfare effect of trade liberalization is decomposed into a steady-state efficiency gain and a transitional loss associated with wage-price stickiness. Our estimates show that the transitional loss is small relative to the steady-state gain, and tends to be lower under flexible as compared to fixed exchange rates. We also show that the loss can be reduced further by a flexible price-level targeting policy rule.

This book identifies the binding constraints to growth of Morocco. It applies an innovative procedure known as “growth diagnostic” and has a central finding. The Moroccan economy suffers from a too slow process of structural transformation for achieving higher growth, especially for its exports that face unfavorable external shocks arising from competitor countries in the main markets for Moroccan exports. This process of so-called “productive diversification” requires that Morocco enhance its competitiveness.

This evaluation examines the relevance and effectiveness of Poverty Reduction Support Credits (PRSCs), introduced by the Bank in early 2001 to support comprehensive growth, improve social conditions, and reduce poverty in IDA countries. PRSCs were intended to allow greater country-ownership, provide more predictable annual support, exhibit more flexible conditionality, and strengthen budget processes in a results-based framework. By September 2009, the Bank had approved 99 PRSCs totaling some 7.5 billion and representing 38% percent of IDA policy based lending. The evaluation finds that in terms of process, PRSCs were effective in easing conditionality, increasing country ownership and aid predictability, stimulating dialogue between central and sectoral ministries, and improving donor harmonization. In terms of content, PRSCs succeeded in emphasizing public sector management and pro-poor service delivery. Yet in terms of results, it is difficult to distinguish growth and poverty outcomes in countries with PRSCs from other better performing IDA countries. There is scope for further simplifying the language of conditionality and underpinning PRSCs with better pro-poor growth diagnostics. PRSCs can also strengthen their results frameworks and limit sector policy content in multi-sector DPLs to high-level or cross-cutting issues. Today, Bank policy has subsumed PRSCs under the broader mantle of Development Policy Lending and the rationale for a separate ‘brand name’ although differences linger from the past. Since PRSCs and other policy-based lending have gradually converged in design, remaining differences compared to other Development Policy Loans should be clearly spelled out, or the separate PRSC brand name should be phased out.