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This study investigates the spatial exposure of Brazil’s Legal Amazon (BLA) as the deforestation frontier, operationalized as Brazil’s legally defined Amazon Legal administrative region, in Brazil’s commodity exports to its two largest partners: the European Union (EU) and China. Focusing on agricultural, forestry and mining commodity groups, a destination-specific Relative Concentration Ratio (RCR) and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) on physical trade data (2002–2024) were used to examine whether contrasting trade governance logics—the regulatory “Brussels Effect” and the scale-driven “Beijing Effect”—are associated with different sourcing geographies from the BLA frontier. We test three competing expectations: EU spatial avoidance, higher Chinese frontier dependence, and compliance-driven consolidation. The results reveal a counterintuitive paradox: despite stricter sustainability governance, the EU displays persistently higher frontier dependence than China in key commodity groups, with RCR trajectories indicating stabilization rather than spatial avoidance. In contrast, China’s frontier dependence declines over time in selected sectors even as import volumes expand substantially, highlighting that changes in frontier exposure cannot be inferred from trade scale alone. CAGR patterns further show strong growth in China-related trade at the national level across commodity groups, alongside sector-specific frontier dynamics within BLA. Overall, the findings provide the strongest support for the consolidation hypothesis: compliance and traceability requirements—public and private—may concentrate EU-linked sourcing among highly auditable, capitalized producers embedded in established frontier zones. These results imply that without explicit spatial targeting, demand-side regulations such as the EUDR may improve product-level assurances yet fail to induce a geographic shift away from deforestation frontiers, potentially reinforcing trade links with established producers in high-risk regions.

The Mercosur countries (also known as the Southern Common Market countries) and the European Union (EU) Member States are two major global agri-food exporters whose production structures, patterns of specialisation and sustainability standards differ significantly. The upcoming entry into force of the EU–Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) may alter competitive conditions in the EU agri-food markets, as its most important component—the EU–Mercosur Interim Trade Agreement—provides for tariff liberalisation. The aim of this article is therefore to compare the agricultural production potential of Mercosur and the EU countries using a set of indicators grouped into production factors (land, labour and capital), productivity, production structure, and qualitative sustainability-related factors. The analysis employs comparative and dynamic statistical methods (including compound annual growth rates and measures of variability). The study is based on FAOSTAT data for 2018–2023, complemented by information on regulatory frameworks and EMPA provisions. The results show that agriculture in Mercosur is land-abundant, cost-efficient, and oriented toward export-driven livestock and commodity production, while the EU is characterised by higher capital intensity and significantly higher land and labour productivity. These structural asymmetries, reinforced by lower input costs and less stringent production standards in Mercosur, suggest increased competitive pressure in the EU market after EMPA implementation, particularly in beef, poultry, sugar and ethanol. The findings highlight the need for continuous monitoring of market dynamics and, where necessary, the activation of safeguard mechanisms. The study provides also an updated evidence base to support policymakers in assessing the implications of the EMPA.

This paper studies the impact of a regional free trade agreement, MERCOSUR, on technology upgrading by Argentinean firms. To guide empirical work, I introduce technology choice in a model of trade with heterogeneous firms. The joint treatment of the technology and exporting choices shows that the increase in revenues produced by trade integration can induce exporters to upgrade technology. An empirical test of the model reveals that firms in industries facing higher reductions in Brazil's tariffs increase investment in technology faster. The effect of tariffs is highest in the upper-middle range of the firm-size distribution, as predicted by the model.

The article assesses what determines the role played by legislators in committees when analysing international treaties. Employing Qualitative Comparative Analysis with an original dataset, the investigation covers the case of the Protocol of Accession of Venezuela to the Southern Common Market and the period in which it passed through the Brazilian National Congress. We find that belonging or not to the ruling coalition upstages other confounders. O artigo examina o que determina o papel dos legisladores em comissões quando analisam tratados internacionais. Empregando a Análise Qualitativa Comparativa com um banco de dados original, a investigação cobre o caso do Protocolo de Adesão da Venezuela ao Mercado Comum do Sul e o período no qual passou pelo Congresso Nacional brasileiro. Concluímos que a pertença ou não à coligação que governa se sobrepõe a outros determinantes.

Abstract This article analyses the Bolsonaro government’s foreign policy and the interests of the Brazilian internal bourgeoisie. The hypothesis is that the internal bourgeoisie supported the 2016 coup d’état and the 2018 election of Jair Bolsonaro but, over the years, they started to exhibit resistance to the government’s political practices and responded to the external pressures related to environmental policy and threats to democracy. The empirical research analysed the position papers of the internal bourgeoisie’s main employer organisations, focusing on the following agendas: i) the Mercosur-EU agreement; ii) entry into the OECD; iii) reformulation of Mercosur’s Common External Tariff (CET); and iv) environmental policy. The study concludes that there were conflicts within the internal bourgeoisie throughout the Bolsonaro administration and, in the end, there was a change in their interests that, alongside other elements, can explain Jair Bolsonaro’s 2022 electoral defeat.

PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND MERCOSUR: A BUMPY ROAD TO THE WORLD’S LARGEST FREE TRADE AREA In December 2024, the European Union and Mercosur concluded negotiations on a landmark partnership agreement that could create the world’s largest free trade area. The proposed agreement forms part of the EU’s broader strategy to strengthen its economic and geopolitical influence through liberalized trade, promotion of democratic values and political cooperation. This article provides a legal-institutional and political-economic analysis of the comprehensive EU–Mercosur agreement. It first examines trade competences of both organizations and structural differences between their integration models: supranational (EU) and intergovernmental (Mercosur). It then evaluates the economic potential of Mercosur countries and trade dynamics between the two blocs. Next, the negotiation process is reconstructed in historical perspective and analyzed in light of political and economic difficulties. The main elements of the agreement are discussed, including trade liberalization, sustainability provisions, and dispute settlement. The paper also explores the challenges of ratification, focusing on agreement’s legal nature and alternative ratification scenarios. The authors argue that a sequential ratification formula – combining an initialtemporary agreement under the EU’s exclusive competences with a subsequent definitive mixed agreement – may offer the most legally coherent and politically feasible solution. The study employs dogmatic, comparative, historical, and empirical methods to assess the normative and institutional architecture and practical feasibility of the EU–Mercosur partnership.

Objective/context: The proliferation in the number, depth, and scope of e-commerce agreements has integrated shared agendas and memberships within Latin America’s complex regional governance, making cooperation and fragmentation non-exclusive practices. Therefore, this article asks about the conditions that have facilitated or limited the development of a Latin American digital market. Methodology: A comparative qualitative analysis of the Pacific Alliance, the Andean Community, and Mercosur, together with process tracing, will shed light on their progress in this area, taking into account the degree of linkage they maintain with three mechanisms that foster collaboration and coordination dynamics among various institutions an d actors. Conclusions: The analysis shows that, within systems characterized by growing institutional density and diversity— such as the Latin American e-commerce environment—regional cooperation can be facilitated when regional trade agreements are embedded in a broader trade regime, where there is a clear sequencing among different agreements, and when orchestrators and policy networks are present. In contrast, their absence leads to ineffective agreement implementation and increased regional fragmentation. Originality: This work connects studies on complex regional governance with a relatively underexplored agenda in Latin American academic literature: e-commerce. Objetivo/contexto: la proliferación en número, profundidad y alcance de acuerdos sobre comercio electrónico ha sumado agendas y membresías compartidas dentro de la gobernanza regional compleja latinoamericana, lo que sitúa a la cooperación y a la fragmentación como prácticas no excluyentes. De allí que este trabajo se pregunte por las condiciones que han facilitado o limitado el desarrollo de un mercado digital latinoamericano. Metodología: el análisis cualitativo comparado de la Alianza del Pacífico, la Comunidad Andina y el Mercosur junto con el rastreo de procesos permitirá conocer sus avances en la materia, considerando el grado de vinculación que mantienen con tres mecanismos promotores de dinámicas de colaboración y coordinación entre distintas instituciones y actores. Conclusiones: el análisis muestra que, dentro de sistemas con una creciente densidad y variedad institucional, como se observa en el comercio electrónico de América Latina, la cooperación regional se puede facilitar cuando los acuerdos comerciales regionales se inscriben en un régimen comercial más amplio, en el que existe una secuenciación entre distintos acuerdos, y también ante la presencia de orquestadores y de redes de políticas. Su ausencia, en cambio, potencia la ineficacia en la implementación de acuerdos y también la fragmentación regional. Originalidad: este trabajo conecta los estudios sobre gobernanza regional compleja con una agenda aún poco explorada dentro de la literatura académica latinoamericana: el comercio electrónico. Objetivo/contexto: a proliferação em número, profundidade e alcance de acordos sobre comércio eletrônico incorporou agendas e filiações compartilhadas na governança regional complexa da América Latina, tornando a cooperação e a fragmentação práticas não excludentes. Por isso, este artigo questiona quais condições facilitaram ou limitaram o desenvolvimento de um mercado digital latino- americano. Metodologia: a análise qualitativa comparada da Aliança do Pacífico, da Comunidade Andina e do Mercosul, juntamente com o mapeamento de processos, permitirá conhecer seus avanços nessa área, considerando o grau de vinculação que mantêm com três mecanismos promotores de dinâmicas de colaboração e coordenação entre diferentes instituições e atores. Conclusões: a análise mostra que, em sistemas caracterizados por crescente densidade e diversidade institucional— como o ambiente do comércio eletrônico na América Latina—a cooperação regional pode ser facilitada quando acordos comerciais regionais se inserem em um regime comercial mais amplo, em que existe uma sequência clara entre diferentes acordos, e quando há orquestradores e redes de políticas presentes. Em contrapartida, a ausência desses elementos potencializa a ineficácia na implementação dos acordos e a fragmentação regional. Originalidade: este trabalho conecta os estudos sobre governança regional complexa com uma agenda ainda pouco explorada na literatura acadêmica latino-americana: o comércio eletrônico.

This paper aims to analyze the the situation in Mercosur countries, for reference to the research the Latinobarómetro, Fundação Konrad Adenauer-Polilat and the Instituto Interuniversitario de Iberoamérica.