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"MONETARY CRISIS"
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Freefall : free markets and the sinking of the global economy
The current global financial crisis carries a made-in-America label. In this incisive book, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz explains how America exported bad economics, bad policies, and bad behaviour to the rest of the world, only to cobble together a haphazard and ineffective response when the markets finally seized up.
Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity
We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting \"modest\" movements in short rates lead to \"large \"movements in credit costs, which are due mainly to the reaction of both term premia and credit spreads. Finally, we show that forward guidance is important to the overall strength of policy transmission.
Journal Article
De l’hyperinflation au « miracle monétaire » : l’expérience hongroise de 1945-1946
Entre août 1945 et juillet 1946, la Hongrie a connu la pire crise inflationniste jamais recensée. Aux derniers moments de cet épisode, les prix augmentèrent de 150 000 % par jour. Cette séquence a donné lieu à de nombreuses analyses, que ce soit au moment de l’envolée des prix avec les articles de Kaldor et Nogaro, ou par la suite avec les travaux de Cagan ou de Sargent et Wallace. Cependant, l’approche monétariste échoua à fournir une explication satisfaisante de ce cas, que ce soit dans la modélisation des comportements pendant la flambée des prix, ou dans l’explication de la sortie de crise. Nous revenons sur cet épisode pour insister en premier lieu sur la politique très particulière d’indexation de la monnaie qui a instauré un régime bimonétaire ; dans un second temps, on s’attache à la stratégie de stabilisation et à ses effets distributifs. Finalement, la prise en compte de ces éléments permet d’élucider la virulence de la crise hongroise.Classification JEL : B22, E31, E42, N14. Between August 1945 and July 1946, Hungarians experienced the worst inflation crisis ever recorded. In the last moments of the episode, prices rose by 150,000% per day. These events produced a vast literature, whether at the time of the crisis with the articles of Kaldor and Nogaro, or later with the works of Cagan, Sargent and Wallace. However, the monetarist approach failed to provide a satisfactory explanation of this case, either in the modelling of behaviours during the price spike, or in the explanation of the end of the crisis. We return to this episode to emphasize in a first part the very specific policy of currency indexation that established a bi-monetary regime. Secondly, the stabilization strategy and its distributive effects are considered: taking these factors into account helps us to elucidate the virulence of the Hungarian crisis.
Journal Article
A flow-of-funds perspective on the financial crisis. Volume I, Money, credit and sectoral balance sheets
Provides a comprehensive overview of a broad range of uses of the flow of funds within the central bank community as well as in the academic field, prepared by international experts in the field. Based on the crisis experience, it offers an overview of lessons for macrofinancial analysis and financial stability.
Book
Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models
Several prominent economists have argued that existing DSGE models cannot properly account for the evolution of key macroeconomic variables during and following the recent Great Recession. We challenge this argument by showing that a standard DSGE model with financial frictions available prior to the recent crisis successfully predicts a sharp contraction in economic activity along with a protracted but relatively modest decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008: IV. The model does so even though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy.
Journal Article
The Monetary Crisis of Lebanon
Above its traditional currency and debt crisis features, Lebanon’s ongoing crisis sheds the light on the inherent weakness of dollarized monetary systems. This crisis can be seen as a monetary crisis, as the country’s dollarized banking system’s liquidity and solvency problems led to the loss of the “moneyness” of its dollar denominated deposits. We analyze the different dimensions of this crisis and we make policy recommendations, inspired by the experience of the Argentine 2001–2002 convertibility crisis. Finally, we look into the redistributive implications of different conversion scenarios.
Journal Article
Monetary Policy and Real Borrowing Costs at the Zero Lower Bound
This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). For the ZLB period, we identify two policy surprises: changes in the twoyear Treasury yield around policy announcements and changes in the ten-year Treasury yield that are orthogonal to those in the two-year yield. The efficacy of unconventional policy in lowering real borrowing costs is comparable to that of conventional policy in that it implies a complete pass-through of policy-induced movements in Treasury yields to comparable-maturity private yields.
Journal Article