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Learning and decision-making from rank data
The ubiquitous challenge of learning and decision-making from rank data arises in situations where intelligent systems collect preference and behavior data from humans, learn from the data, and then use the data to help humans make efficient, effective, and timely decisions. Often, such data are represented by rankings. This book surveys some recent progress toward addressing the challenge from the considerations of statistics, computation, and socio-economics. We will cover classical statistical models for rank data, including random utility models, distance-based models, and mixture models. We will discuss and compare classical and state-of-the-art algorithms, such as algorithms based on Minorize-Majorization (MM), Expectation-Maximization (EM), Generalized Method-of-Moments (GMM), rank breaking, and tensor decomposition. We will also introduce principled Bayesian preference elicitation frameworks for collecting rank data. Finally, we will examine socio-economic aspects of statistically desirable decision-making mechanisms, such as Bayesian estimators. This book can be useful in three ways: (1) for theoreticians in statistics and machine learning to better understand the considerations and caveats of learning from rank data, compared to learning from other types of data, especially cardinal data; (2) for practitioners to apply algorithms covered by the book for sampling, learning, and aggregation; and (3) as a textbook for graduate students or advanced undergraduate students to learn about the field. This book requires that the reader has basic knowledge in probability, statistics, and algorithms. Knowledge in social choice would also help but is not required.
Book
Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning
Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a principled, practical, probabilistic approach to learning in kernel machines. GPs have received increased attention in the machine-learning community over the past decade, and this book provides a long-needed systematic and unified treatment of theoretical and practical aspects of GPs in machine learning. The treatment is comprehensive and self-contained, targeted at researchers and students in machine learning and applied statistics.The book deals with the supervised-learning problem for both regression and classification, and includes detailed algorithms. A wide variety of covariance (kernel) functions are presented and their properties discussed. Model selection is discussed both from a Bayesian and a classical perspective. Many connections to other well-known techniques from machine learning and statistics are discussed, including support-vector machines, neural networks, splines, regularization networks, relevance vector machines and others. Theoretical issues including learning curves and the PAC-Bayesian framework are treated, and several approximation methods for learning with large datasets are discussed. The book contains illustrative examples and exercises, and code and datasets are available on the Web. Appendixes provide mathematical background and a discussion of Gaussian Markov processes.
eBook
Computational trust models and machine learning
\"This book provides an introduction to computational trust models from a machine learning perspective. After reviewing traditional computational trust models, it discusses a new trend of applying formerly unused machine learning methodologies, such as supervised learning. The application of various learning algorithms, such as linear regression, matrix decomposition, and decision trees, illustrates how to translate the trust modeling problem into a (supervised) learning problem. The book also shows how novel machine learning techniques can improve the accuracy of trust assessment compared to traditional approaches\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Spatial and species-level predictions of road mortality risk using trait data
Aim: Collisions between wildlife and vehicles are recognized as one of the major causes of mortality for many species. Empirical estimates of road mortality show that some species are more likely to be killed than others, but to what extent this variation can be explained and predicted using intrinsic species characteristics remains poorly understood. This study aims to identify general macroecological patterns associated with road mortality and generate spatial and species-level predictions of risks. Location: Brazil. Time period: 2001–2014. Major taxa: Birds and mammals. Methods: We fitted trait-based random forest regression models (controlling for survey characteristics) to explain 783 empirical road mortality rates from Brazil, representing 170 bird and 73 mammalian species. Fitted models were then used to make spatial and species-level predictions of road mortality risk in Brazil, considering 1,775 birds and 623 mammals that occur within the continental boundaries of the country. Results: Survey frequency and geographical location were key predictors of observed rates, but mortality was also explained by the body size, reproductive speed and ecological specialization of the species. Spatial predictions revealed a high potential standardized (per kilometre of road) mortality risk in Amazonia for birds and mammals and, additionally, a high risk in Southern Brazil for mammals. Given the existing road network, these predictions mean that >8 million birds and >2 million mammals could be killed per year on Brazilian roads. Furthermore, predicted rates for all Brazilian endotherms uncovered potential vulnerability to road mortality of several understudied species that are currently listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Conclusion: With a rapidly expanding global road network, there is an urgent need to develop improved approaches to assess and predict road-related impacts. This study illustrates the potential of trait-based models as assessment tools to gain a better understanding of the correlates of vulnerability to road mortality across species, and as predictive tools for difficult-to-sample or understudied species and areas.
Journal Article
Prediction of chronic damage in systemic lupus erythematosus by using machine-learning models
The increased survival in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) patients implies the development of chronic damage, occurring in up to 50% of cases. Its prevention is a major goal in the SLE management. We aimed at predicting chronic damage in a large monocentric SLE cohort by using neural networks.
We enrolled 413 SLE patients (M/F 30/383; mean age ± SD 46.3±11.9 years; mean disease duration ± SD 174.6 ± 112.1 months). Chronic damage was assessed by the SLICC/ACR Damage Index (SDI). We applied Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) as a machine-learning model to predict the risk of chronic damage. The clinical data sequences registered for each patient during the follow-up were used for building and testing the RNNs.
At the first visit in the Lupus Clinic, 35.8% of patients had an SDI≥1. For the RNN model, two groups of patients were analyzed: patients with SDI = 0 at the baseline, developing damage during the follow-up (N = 38), and patients without damage (SDI = 0). We created a mathematical model with an AUC value of 0.77, able to predict damage development. A threshold value of 0.35 (sensitivity 0.74, specificity 0.76) seemed able to identify patients at risk to develop damage.
We applied RNNs to identify a prediction model for SLE chronic damage. The use of the longitudinal data from the Sapienza Lupus Cohort, including laboratory and clinical items, resulted able to construct a mathematical model, potentially identifying patients at risk to develop damage.
Journal Article
Machine learning : a Bayesian and optimization perspective
This tutorial text gives a unifying perspective on machine learning by covering both probabilistic and deterministic approaches -which are based on optimization techniques - together with the Bayesian inference approach, whose essence lies in the use of a hierarchy of probabilistic models.The book presents the major machine learning methods as.
eBook
Empirical Study on Classifiers for Earlier Prediction of COVID-19 Infection Cure and Death Rate in the Indian States
Machine Learning methods can play a key role in predicting the spread of respiratory infection with the help of predictive analytics. Machine Learning techniques help mine data to better estimate and predict the COVID-19 infection status. A Fine-tuned Ensemble Classification approach for predicting the death and cure rates of patients from infection using Machine Learning techniques has been proposed for different states of India. The proposed classification model is applied to the recent COVID-19 dataset for India, and a performance evaluation of various state-of-the-art classifiers to the proposed model is performed. The classifiers forecasted the patients’ infection status in different regions to better plan resources and response care systems. The appropriate classification of the output class based on the extracted input features is essential to achieve accurate results of classifiers. The experimental outcome exhibits that the proposed Hybrid Model reached a maximum F1-score of 94% compared to Ensembles and other classifiers like Support Vector Machine, Decision Trees, and Gaussian Naïve Bayes on a dataset of 5004 instances through 10-fold cross-validation for predicting the right class. The feasibility of automated prediction for COVID-19 infection cure and death rates in the Indian states was demonstrated.
Journal Article
MRI-Based Radiomics Differentiates Skull Base Chordoma and Chondrosarcoma: A Preliminary Study
Chordoma and chondrosarcoma share common radiographic characteristics yet are distinct clinically. A radiomic machine learning model differentiating these tumors preoperatively would help plan surgery. MR images were acquired from 57 consecutive patients with chordoma (N = 32) or chondrosarcoma (N = 25) treated at the University of Tokyo Hospital between September 2012 and February 2020. Preoperative T1-weighted images with gadolinium enhancement (GdT1) and T2-weighted images were analyzed. Datasets from the first 47 cases were used for model creation, and those from the subsequent 10 cases were used for validation. Feature extraction was performed semi-automatically, and 2438 features were obtained per image sequence. Machine learning models with logistic regression and a support vector machine were created. The model with the highest accuracy incorporated seven features extracted from GdT1 in the logistic regression. The average area under the curve was 0.93 ± 0.06, and accuracy was 0.90 (9/10) in the validation dataset. The same validation dataset was assessed by 20 board-certified neurosurgeons. Diagnostic accuracy ranged from 0.50 to 0.80 (median 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.60 ± 0.06%), which was inferior to that of the machine learning model (p = 0.03), although there are some limitations, such as the risk of overfitting and the lack of an extramural cohort for truly independent final validation. In summary, we created a novel MRI-based machine learning model to differentiate skull base chordoma and chondrosarcoma from multiparametric signatures.
Journal Article
Machine learning-based methods for estimating evapotranspiration of winter wheat field in the regions of Nanjing
【Objective】Accurate estimation of crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for improving irrigation and water resource management. This study aimed to reduce the uncertainty in ETc estimation for winter wheat in the region of Nanjing and improve the efficiency of agricultural water use. 【Method】 Four machine learning models: the Lasso Regression, the Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), the Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) were used to calculate ETc using meteorological data measured from 2011 to 2018. Bayesian optimization (BO) was used to fine-tune the model parameters. The calculated results were compared with data measured from lysimeters. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis was used to identify key meteorological factors. A logistic growth model for leaf area index (LAI) based on degree-day and effective accumulated temperature was developed to indirectly estimate ETc. 【Result】 ① The GBDT and RF models outperformed other model, with their R2 values being 0.951 and 0.926, respectively. The GBDT model was most accurate, with a MAE of 0.370 mm/d and RMSE of 0.541 mm/d. ② SHAP analysis showed that LAI, solar radiation (Rs) and net radiation (Rn) were the most influential factors in ETc estimation. ③The logistic-based LAI model enables indirect prediction of ETc using temperature-driven metrics.【Conclusion】The integration of machine learning with Bayesian optimization significantly improves ETc estimation for winter wheat. The GBDT and RF models offer robust alternatives to traditional methods, reducing dependence on costly instrumentation and dense meteorological networks. This scalable method supports data-driven irrigation scheduling and improves sustainable agricultural water management in winter wheat production in the study region.
Journal Article