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Essentials of advanced macroeconomic theory
\"Trying to summarize the essentials of macroeconomic theory in the wake of the financial crisis that has shaken not only Western economies but also the macroeconomic profession is no easy task. In particular, the notion that markets are self-correcting and always in equilibrium appears to have taken a heavy blow. However, the jury is still out on which areas should be considered as failures and what which constitute the future of research. The overall aim of this text is to provide a compact overview of the contributions that are currently regarded as the most important for macroeconomic analysis and to equip the reader with the essential theoretical knowledge that all advanced students in macroeconomics should be acquainted with. The result is a compact text that should act as the perfect complement to further study of macroeconomics: an introduction to the key concepts discussed in the journal literature and suitable for students from upper undergraduate level through to PhD courses.\"--Publisher's website.
Book
MEASURING ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY
We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence—including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles—indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find that policy uncertainty is associated with greater stock price volatility and reduced investment and employment in policy-sensitive sectors like defense, health care, finance, and infrastructure construction. At the macro level, innovations in policy uncertainty foreshadow declines in investment, output, and employment in the United States and, in a panel vector autoregressive setting, for 12 major economies. Extending our U.S. index back to 1900, EPU rose dramatically in the 1930s (from late 1931) and has drifted upward since the 1960s.
Journal Article
Foundations of modern macroeconomics
The study of macroeconomics can seem a daunting project. The field is complex and sometimes poorly defined and there are a variety of competing approaches. It is easy for the senior bachelor and starting master student to get lost in the forest of macroeconomics and the mathematics it uses extensively. Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics is a guide book for the interested and ambitious student. Non-partisan in its approach, it deals with all the major topics, summarising the important approaches and providing the reader with a coherent angle on all aspects of macroeconomic thought. Each chapter deals with a separate area of macroeconomics, and each contains a summary section of key points and a further reading list. Using nothing more than undergraduate mathematical skills, it takes the student from basic IS-LM style macro models to the state of the art literature on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, explaining the mathematical tricks used where they are first introduced. Fully updated and substantially revised, this third edition of Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics now includes brand new chapters covering highly topical subjects such as dynamic programming, competitive risk sharing equilibria and the New Keynesian DSGE approach. -- Provided by publisher.
Book
HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND BUSINESS CYCLES WORLDWIDE
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio predicts lower GDP growth and higher unemployment in the medium run for an unbalanced panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Low mortgage spreads are associated with an increase in the household debt to GDP ratio and a decline in subsequent GDP growth, highlighting the importance of credit supply shocks. Economic forecasters systematically over-predict GDP growth at the end of household debt booms, suggesting an important role of flawed expectations formation. The negative relation between the change in household debt to GDP and subsequent output growth is stronger for countries with less flexible exchange rate regimes. We also uncover a global household debt cycle that partly predicts the severity of the global growth slowdown after 2007. Countries with a household debt cycle more correlated with the global household debt cycle experience a sharper decline in growth after an increase in domestic household debt.
Journal Article
Macroeconomics in context
'Macroeconomics in Context' lays out the principles of macroeconomics in a manner that is thorough, up to date, and relevant to students. Like its counterpart, 'Microeconomics in Context', the book is attuned to economic realities. These books offer affordability, engaging treatment of high-interest topics from sustainability to financial crisis and rising inequality, and clear, straightforward presentation of economic theory. Policy issues are presented in context - historical, institutional, social, political, and ethical - and always with reference to human well-being.
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Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks
In this essay, we discuss the emerging literature in macroeconomics that combines heterogeneous agent models, nominal rigidities, and aggregate shocks. This literature opens the door to the analysis of distributional issues, economic fluctuations, and stabilization policies—all within the same framework. In response to the limitations of the representative agent approach to economic fluctuations, a new framework has emerged that combines key features of heterogeneous agents (HA) and New Keynesian (NK) economies. These HANK models offer a much more accurate representation of household consumption behavior and can generate realistic distributions of income, wealth, and, albeit to a lesser degree, household balance sheets. At the same time, they can accommodate many sources of macroeconomic fluctuations, including those driven by aggregate demand. In sum, they provide a rich theoretical framework for quantitative analysis of the interaction between cross-sectional distributions and aggregate dynamics. In this article, we outline a state-of-the-art version of HANK together with its representative agent counterpart, and convey two broad messages about the role of household heterogeneity for the response of the macroeconomy to aggregate shocks: 1) the similarity between the Representative Agent New Keynesian (RANK) and HANK frameworks depends crucially on the shock being analyzed; and 2) certain important macroeconomic questions concerning economic fluctuations can only be addressed within heterogeneous agent models.
Journal Article
Lectures in macroeconomics : a capitalist economy without unemployment
Lectures in Macroeconomics: A Capitalist Economy Without Unemployment' provides a systematic account of the principle of aggregate demand based on the work of Polish economist Michal Kalecki, best known as one of the originators of the Keynesian Revolution in macroeconomics.The lectures demonstrate the importance of aggregate demand in determining total output and employment in the capitalist economy. They show how the investment decisions of firms affect economic growth, arguing that due to the unstable nature of investment it is important that the government has a central role in stabilizing the economy.0This English translation of Kazimierz Laski's final work brings up to date fundamental concepts to give a picture of the twenty-first capitalist economy, and the obstacles that must be overcome in bringing it to full employment. It introduces the role of money and finance in the contemporary capitalist economy, as well as the central role of the labour market and wages. The analysis is illustrated with statistics and discussion around the evolution of capitalist economies and the rise of economic inequality since the Second World War, culminating in the 2008 crisis and the economic deflation affecting Europe since that crisis. Lectures in Macroeconomics remarks critically upon the neo-classical approach to economics that has brought about slow economic growth, unemployment, and inequality.
Book
Identification in Macroeconomics
This paper discusses empirical approaches macroeconomists use to answer questions like: What does monetary policy do? How large are the effects of fiscal stimulus? What caused the Great Recession? Why do some countries grow faster than others? Identification of causal effects plays two roles in this process. In certain cases, progress can be made using the direct approach of identifying plausibly exogenous variation in a policy and using this variation to assess the effect of the policy. However, external validity concerns limit what can be learned in this way. Carefully identified causal effects estimates can also be used as moments in a structural moment matching exercise. We use the term “identified moments” as a short-hand for “estimates of responses to identified structural shocks,” or what applied microeconomists would call “causal effects.” We argue that such identified moments are often powerful diagnostic tools for distinguishing between important classes of models (and thereby learning about the effects of policy). To illustrate these notions we discuss the growing use of cross-sectional evidence in macroeconomics and consider what the best existing evidence is on the effects of monetary policy.
Journal Article
Quantum Computing and Deep Learning Methods for GDP Growth Forecasting
Precise macroeconomic forecasting is one of the major aims of economic analysis because it facilitates a timely assessment of future economic conditions and can be used for monetary, fiscal, and economic policy purposes. Numerous works have studied the behavior of the macroeconomic situation and have developed models to forecast them. However, the existing models have limitations, and the literature demands more research on the subject given that the accuracy of the models is still poor, and they have only been expanded for developed countries. This paper presents a comparison of methodologies for GDP growth forecasting and, consequently, new forecasting models of GDP growth have been constructed with the ability to estimate accurately future scenarios globally. A sample of 70 countries was used, which has allowed the use of sample combinations that consider the regional heterogeneity of the warning indicators. To the sample under study, different methods have been applied to achieve a high accuracy model, comparing Quantum Computing with Deep Learning procedures, being Deep Neural Decision Trees, which has provided excellent prediction results thanks to large-scale processing with mini-batch-based learning and can be connected to any larger Neural Networks model. Our model has a great potential impact on the adequacy of macroeconomic policy, providing tools that help to achieve macroeconomic and monetary stability at the global level, and creating new methodological opportunities for GDP growth forecasting.
Journal Article