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Financial Risk Forecasting
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com [http://www.financialriskforecasting.com/] – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
eBook
Scenario planning in organizations : how to create, use, and assess scenarios
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment.This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project.Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. \"This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage\".-- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation
eBook
Modelling and managing airport performance
Modelling and Managing Airport Performance provides an integrated view of state-of-the-art research on measuring and improving the performance of airport systems with consideration of both airside and landside operations. The considered facets of performance include capacity, delays, economic costs, noise, emissions and safety.
eBook
Simulation techniques in financial risk management
Praise for the First Edition \"…a nice, self-contained introduction to simulation and computational techniques in finance…\" - Mathematical Reviews Simulation Techniques in Financial Risk Management, Second Edition takes a unique approach to the field of simulations by focusing on techniques necessary in the fields of finance and risk management. Thoroughly updated, the new edition expands on several key topics in these areas and presents many of the recent innovations in simulations and risk management, such as advanced option pricing models beyond the Black-Scholes paradigm, interest rate models, MCMC methods including stochastic volatility models simulations, model assets and model-free properties, jump diffusion, and state space modeling. The Second Edition also features: Updates to primary software used throughout the book, Microsoft Office® Excel® VBA New topical coverage on multiple assets, model-free properties, and related models More than 300 exercises at the end of each chapter, with select answers in the appendix, to help readers apply new concepts and test their understanding Extensive use of examples to illustrate how to use simulation techniques in risk management Practical case studies, such as the pricing of exotic options; simulations of Greeks in hedging; and the use of Bayesian ideas to assess the impact of jumps, so readers can reproduce the results of the studies A related website with additional solutions to problems within the book as well as Excel VBA and S-Plus computer code for many of the examples within the book Simulation Techniques in Financial Risk Management, Second Edition is an invaluable resource for risk managers in the financial and actuarial industries as well as a useful reference for readers interested in learning how to better gauge risk and make more informed decisions. The book is also ideal
for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in simulation and risk management.
eBook
Coastal disaster surveys and assessment for risk mitigation
\"This collection covers the essential concepts in the management of coastal disasters, outlining several field surveys of coastal disasters in the 21st century, including the Indian Ocean and Tohoku Tsunamis, and the storm surges of Hurricane Katrina, Cyclone Nargis, and Typhoon Haiyan. Measurements of flood heights, distributions of structural destruction, and residents' testimonies are reported, and the results are analysed and compared with past events and numerical simulations, with the reality of these disasters reconstructed. The book then covers the current understanding of disaster mechanisms and the most advanced tools for future simulation. Uniquely explains how to use disaster surveys along with simulations to mitigate risk. Combines pure scientific studies with practical trials and proposes future procedures for effective coastal disaster mitigation. Coastal Disaster Surveys and Assessment for Risk Mitigation is ideal for students in the disaster field as well as engineers who manage tsunamis, storm surges, high wave attacks and coastal erosion\"-- Provided by publisher.
BOOK
Handbook of Financial Risk Management
An authoritative handbook on risk management techniques and simulations as applied to financial engineering topics, theories, and statistical methodologies The Handbook of Financial Risk Management: Simulations and Case Studies illustrates the practical implementation of simulation techniques in the banking and financial industries through the use of real-world applications. Striking a balance between theory and practice, the Handbook of Financial Risk Management: Simulations and Case Studies demonstrates how simulation algorithms can be used to solve practical problems and showcases how accuracy and efficiency in implementing various simulation methods are indispensable tools in risk management. The book provides the reader with an intuitive understanding of financial risk management and deepens insight into those financial products that cannot be priced traditionally. The Handbook of Financial Risk Management also features: * Examples in each chapter derived from consulting projects, current research, and course instruction * Topics such as volatility, fixed-income derivatives, LIBOR Market Models, and risk measures * Over twenty-four recognized simulation models * Commentary, data sets, and computer subroutines available on a chapter-by-chapter basis As a complete reference for practitioners, the book is useful in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering. The Handbook of Financial Risk Management is also an excellent text or supplement for graduate and MBA-level students in courses on financial risk management and simulation.
eBook