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Observed choices between risky lotteries are difficult to reconcile with expected utility maximization, both because subjects appear to be too risk averse with regard to small gambles for this to be explained by diminishing marginal utility of wealth, as stressed by Rabin (2000), and because subjects’ responses involve a random element. We propose a unified explanation for both anomalies, similar to the explanation given for related phenomena in the case of perceptual judgments: they result from judgments based on imprecise (and noisy) mental representations of the decision situation. In this model, risk aversion results from a sort of perceptual bias—but one that represents an optimal decision rule, given the limitations of the mental representation of the situation. We propose a quantitative model of the noisy mental representation of simple lotteries, based on other evidence regarding numerical cognition, and test its ability to explain the choice frequencies that we observe in a laboratory experiment.

To capture the risk-aversion intuition, the standard approach in economics has been to utilize the model of expected utility, in which risk aversion derives from diminishing marginal utility for wealth (or diminishing marginal utility for aggregate consumption). The expected utility model for risk aversion has been used to derive many important insights. But over the years, economists and psychologists have identified various problematic issues with expected utility as a descriptive model of choice. In this article, we urge economists to take seriously the research agenda of developing and assessing different ways to model risk aversion. We proceed in three main steps. First, we highlight that the basic intuition of risk aversion that drives many results in economics is not intimately tied to expected utility. Second, we describe a few alternative models that can also capture the basic intuition of risk aversion. Finally, we discuss that, while expected utility and the alternative models might all capture the basic intuition of risk aversion, the alternative models can generate additional, more nuanced implications not shared with expected utility, that in some cases seem to be borne out by data. We emphasize that these alternative models also are not perfect, and further research is needed to identify even better approaches.

Auctions often involve the sale of many related goods: Treasury, spectrum, and electricity auctions are examples. In multi-unit auctions, bids for marginal units may affect payments for inframarginal units, giving rise to \"demand reduction\" and furthermore to incentives for shading bids differently across units. We establish that such differential bid shading results generically in ex post inefficient allocations in the uniform-price and pay-as-bid auctions. We also show that, in general, the efficiency and revenue rankings of the two formats are ambiguous. However, in settings with symmetric bidders, the pay-as-bid auction often outperforms. In particular, with diminishing marginal utility, symmetric information and linearity, it yields greater expected revenues. We explain the rankings through multi-unit effects, which have no counterparts in auctions with unit demands. We attribute the new incentives separately to multi-unit (but constant) marginal utility and to diminishing marginal utility. We also provide comparisons with the Vickrey auction.

We use data on insurance deductible choices to estimate a structural model of risky choice that incorporates \"standard\" risk aversion (diminishing marginal utility for wealth) and probability distortions. We find that probability distortions—characterized by substantial overweighting of small probabilities and only mild insensitivity to probability changes—play an important role in explaining the aversion to risk manifested in deductible choices. This finding is robust to allowing for observed and unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. We demonstrate that neither Kőszegi-Rabin loss aversion alone nor Gul disappointment aversion alone can explain our estimated probability distortions, signifying a key role for probability weighting.

We develop an approach to analyzing the sustainability of competitive advantage that emphasizes demand-side factors. We extend the added-value approach to business strategy by introducing an explicit treatment of how firms create value for consumers. This allows us to characterize how consumer heterogeneity and marginal utility from performance improvements on the demand side interact with resource heterogeneity and improving technologies on the supply side. Using this approach, we address a variety of questions including whether technology substitutions will be permanent or transitory; the sequence in which new technologies attack different market segments; how rents from different types of resources change over time; whether decreasing marginal utility and imitation give rise to similar rent profiles; the extent of synergies within a firm's resource portfolio; the emergence of new generic strategies; and the conditions that support strategic diversity in a market. Our focus on consumer utility and value creation complements the traditional focus in the strategy literature on competition and value capture.

This paper provides novel empirical evidence on the value of the elasticity of marginal utility, \\[ \\eta \\], for the United Kingdom. \\[ \\eta \\] is a crucial component of the social discount rate (SDR), which determines the inter-temporal trade-offs that are acceptable to society. Using contemporaneous and historical data, new estimates are obtained using four revealed-preference techniques: the equal-sacrifice income tax approach, the Euler-equation approach, the Frisch additive-preferences approach and risk aversion in insurance markets. A meta-analysis indicates parameter homogeneity across approaches, and a central estimate of 1.5 for \\[ \\eta \\]. The confidence interval excludes unity, the value used in official guidance by the UK government. The term structure of the SDR is then estimated. The result is a short-run SDR of 4.5% declining to 4.2% in the very long-run. This is higher and flatter than the UK official guidance. The difference stems from incorrect calibration of social welfare and estimation of the diffusion of growth. Other things equal, the results suggest that current UK guidance might need to be updated.

Diminishing marginal utility (DMU) is a basic tenet of economic and psychological models of judgment and choice, but its determinants are little understood. In the research reported here, we tested whether insensitivities in valuations of dollar amounts (e.g., $40, $100) may be due to inexact mappings of symbolic numbers (i.e., \"40,\" \"100\") onto mental magnitudes. In three studies, we demonstrated that inexact mappings appear to guide valuation and mediate numeracy's relations with riskless valuations (Studies 1 and 1a) and risky choices (Study 2). The results highlight the fundamental notion that individuals' valuations of $100 depend critically on how individuals perceive and map the symbolic quantity \"100.\" This notion has implications for conceptualizations of value, risk aversion, intertemporal choice, and dual-process theories of decision making. Normative implications are also briefly discussed.

Estimates of the elasticity of the marginal utility of income are necessary for determining distributional weights to correct for diminishing marginal utility of income, which is particularly important in light of increasing concern about accounting for distributional impacts in regulatory review. The elasticity is also necessary for computing the social discount rate using the Ramsey formula. Despite many attempts to estimate the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, considerable uncertainty exists about the magnitude of this key parameter. In this paper, we use meta-analysis of estimates of the elasticity from the US and UK to shed light on the appropriate elasticity values to use for both distributional weighting and discounting. Relying on our findings, we tentatively conclude that it is reasonable to base the social discount rate and distributional weights on an elasticity of 1.6, with lower- and upper-bound sensitivity testing at 1.2 and 2.0. This estimate results in distributional weights which appear plausible, and which we believe can contribute to a consensus on how to conduct distributional weighting. Moreover, the resulting social discount rate is within the range typically recommended when the Ramsey formula is used.

This paper optimizes human resource management from the perspective of marginal utility. The utility function proposes the subtraction function of consumption, which represents the law of diminishing marginal utility. The Lagrange multiplier method solves the maximum utility problem. In human resource management, utility and marginal utility are redefined, and the probability density function and distribution function of exponential distribution are used as the index’s marginal utility and utility functions, respectively. Human resource management optimization models I and II were constructed based on the marginal utility, and the models and model parameters were solved. This paper applies the human resource management model to Company R as an example. The calculation shows that the total investment of the current index resources of Company R is 2.55 million yuan, and the total utility calculation is 0.8306. Under the optimization of human resource management based on Model I, the expected value of company R reached 0.8631 while maintaining the unchanged index resource input, an increase of 3.91%. The optimization based on Model II resulted in the index resource input being 2.3285 million yuan, with an unchanged total utility that was reduced by 8.69%.

The last two decades have witnessed a substantial growth of the owner-occupied housing sector in urban China, where most people tend to follow a conventional life course in terms of ascending the housing ladder towards homeownership. Yet, with skyrocketing housing prices in the real estate market, fragmentation in housing opportunities has become more important in reshaping the structure of social inequalities. This paper investigates the disparities in housing careers between skilled migrants and their local counterparts in Nanjing, focusing on temporal and spatial aspects. Specifically, this paper examines how skilled migrants’ housing tenure and location change over time, to what extent these changes differ from those of skilled locals, and what factors contribute to the disparities between migrants and locals. The results verify that there are indeed disparities in housing careers between migrants and locals, and the foremost difference lies in the tenure, especially the tenure of the first residence. Spatially, migrants exhibit an outward-bound pattern, often associated with the transition from renting to owning. These disparities in housing careers could be primarily attributed not only to the gap of the intergenerational transfer of wealth between migrants and locals, which can be traced back to regional disparities in economic development, but also to the self-selection of migration. While facing skyrocketing housing prices, the timing of making a foray into the housing market is pivotal. This study also revealed the diminishing marginal utility of education that is found in terms of establishing a superior housing career. 过去二十年来，中国城市的自住住房部门大幅增长，大多数人倾向于遵循传统的生活方式，向上提升自己以加入有房一族的行列。然而，随着房地产市场房价飙升，住房机会的分割对于重塑社会不平等结构变得更加重要。本文调查了南京技术工人移民与当地同行之间的住房历程差异，重点是时间和空间方面。具体而言，本文探讨了技术工人移民的住房保有形式和地点随时间的变化情况，这些变化与当地技术工人的差异程度，以及导致移民与当地人之间差异的因素。结果证实，移民与当地人之间的住房历程确实存在差异，最重要的差异在于住房保有形式，尤其是第一个住所的保有形式。在空间上，移民表现出一种向外的模式，通常与从租赁到拥有的过渡有关。住房历程的这些差异的主要原因不仅是移民与当地人之间财富代际转移的差距（这可以追溯到经济发展的地区差异），也可归因于移民的自我选择。在面临暴涨的房价时，进入房地产市场的时机至关重要。这项研究还揭示了在建立住房历程优势方面教育的边际效用递减。