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Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons
Do external imbalances increase the risk of financial crises? This paper studies the experience of 14 developed countries over 140 years (1870-2008). It exploits the long-run data set in a number of different ways. First, the paper applies new statistical tools to describe the temporal and spatial patterns of crises and identifies five episodes of global financial instability in the past 140 years. Second, it studies the macroeconomic dynamics before crises and shows that credit growth tends to be elevated and short-term interest rates depressed relative to the \"natural rate\" in the run-up to global financial crises. Third, the paper shows that recessions associated with crises lead to deeper slumps and stronger turnarounds in imbalances than during normal recessions. Finally, the paper asks to what extent external imbalances help predict financial crises. The overall result is that credit growth emerges as the single best predictor of financial instability. External imbalances have played an additional role, but more so in the pre-WWII era of low financialization than today.
Journal Article
Soft Floors in Auctions
Several of the auction-driven exchanges that facilitate programmatic buying of internet display advertising have recently introduced “soft floors” in addition to standard reserve prices (called “hard floors” in the industry). A soft floor is a bid level below which a winning bidder pays his own bid instead of paying the second-highest bid as in a second-price auction most ad exchanges use by default. This paper characterizes soft floors’ revenue-generating potential as a function of the distribution of bidder independent private values. When bidders are symmetric (identically distributed), soft floors have no effect on revenue, because a symmetric equilibrium always exists in strictly monotonic bidding strategies, and standard revenue-equivalence arguments thus apply. The industry often motivates soft floors as tools for extracting additional expected revenue from an occasional high bidder, for example a bidder retargeting the consumer making the impression. Such asymmetries in the distribution of bidder preferences do not automatically make soft floors profitable. This paper presents two examples of tractable modeling assumptions about such occasional high bidders, with one example implying low soft floors always hurt revenues because of strategic bid-shading by the regular bidders, and the other example implying high soft floors can increase revenues by making the regular bidders bid more aggressively.
This paper was accepted by Juanjuan Zhang, marketing.
Journal Article
The free market innovation machine
Why has capitalism produced economic growth that so vastly dwarfs the growth record of other economic systems, past and present? Why have living standards in countries from America to Germany to Japan risen exponentially over the past century? William Baumol rejects the conventional view that capitalism benefits society through price competition--that is, products and services become less costly as firms vie for consumers. Where most others have seen this as the driving force behind growth, he sees something different--a compound of systematic innovation activity within the firm, an arms race in which no firm in an innovating industry dares to fall behind the others in new products and processes, and inter-firm collaboration in the creation and use of innovations.
While giving price competition due credit, Baumol stresses that large firms use innovation as a prime competitive weapon. However, as he explains it, firms do not wish to risk too much innovation, because it is costly, and can be made obsolete by rival innovation. So firms have split the difference through the sale of technology licenses and participation in technology-sharing compacts that pay huge dividends to the economy as a whole--and thereby made innovation a routine feature of economic life. This process, in Baumol's view, accounts for the unparalleled growth of modern capitalist economies. Drawing on extensive research and years of consulting work for many large global firms, Baumol shows in this original work that the capitalist growth process, at least in societies where the rule of law prevails, comes far closer to the requirements of economic efficiency than is typically understood.
Resounding with rare intellectual force, this book marks a milestone in the comprehension of the accomplishments of our free-market economic system--a new understanding that, suggests the author, promises to benefit many countries that lack the advantages of this immense innovation machine.
eBook
Social justice and the German labour market : a critical inquiry into normative institutional analysis
The neoliberal transformation of welfare state institutions has intensified social inequalities, raising questions of social justice across European varieties of capitalism. In Germany, this transformation occurred with Third Way social democracy and the consequent Hartz reforms. After ten years of reducing unemployment, this 'Hartz Regime' is now cited as a model for reforming other European political economies. Despite this apparent success, it has also received criticism for exacerbating the social injustices of neoliberal capitalism, ultimately leading to the question: how do we know if the German Hartz Regime is socially just? Drawing on the Frankfurt School of critical theory, this study demonstrates not only how to develop a theory of social justice for empirically studying labour market institutions, but also illustrates it through an extensive study of the German case. The result is both unsurprising and reinforces classical social democratic concerns: not only the Hartz Regime, but capitalism itself, is inherently unjust. By accepting this previously recognised conclusion, the book provides a critical framework for the normative evaluation of empirical institutions, effective for studying the varieties of social (in)justice in contemporary capitalism beyond Germany.
Book
Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: a historical perspective
This paper investigates whether the real interest rate parity (RIRP) is valid during the three waves of globalizations that occurred in the last 150 years (1870–1914, 1944–1971, 1989 to the present). If any, these periods should favor RIRP, since globalization is a process where economies and financial markets become increasingly integrated into a global economic system. In contrast to the existing literature, we model the departures from RIRP as a long-term memory process and apply fractional integration methods on a sample of real interest rate differentials of seven developed countries: France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the UK across the three globalization waves paired against the USA. We compute impulse response functions (IRF) to gain further insight into the memory characteristics of the RIRP differential processes and provide half-life estimates. We find that deviations from RIRP are mean reverting, providing robust evidence of real interest rate convergence during the three globalization waves. We shed further light on financial and commodity market integration during the three globalization waves by assessing the memory properties of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and relative purchasing power parity (PPP) differential processes. We find that deviations from relative PPP and UIP are not always mean-reverting processes. RIRP, relative PPP, and UIP hold simultaneously only in 7 out of 21 cases; RIRP and UIP hold in 11 out of 21 cases; RIRP hold without the support of relative PPP and UIP in 3 out of 21 cases. Thus, the evidence in favor of real interest rate convergence appears to be driven more by UIP than relative PPP. All these results are, to the authors knowledge, new to the literature.
Journal Article
The sensible guide to Forex : safer, smarter ways to survive and prosper from the start
\"The traders' guide to making the most of one the hottest areas in finance: Forex tradingStart Trading Forex Right Now is the accessible introduction to one of today's most convenient way to make money written by a trader for traders. Forex offers some of the best reward/risk opportunities of any financial markets, and this book is designed to fit the way traders actually think and execute. Walking the reader through selecting a trading plan based on evidence that supports the plan (complete with benchmarks for selecting evidence), the book also provides simple technical analysis tools, along with concrete examples and anecdotes, that show how and when to buy low and sell high, along with step-by-step information on how to enter and exit a trade and understand leverage and risk.Throughout, the book stresses one key theme: plan and execute high probability trades or, at the very least, avoid big losses. Exploring how to avoid \"mindless trading,\" the book covers everything you need to know, authored by Seeking Alpha's number one currency strategy opinion leader, Cliff Wachtel. The professional's guide to Forex trading, one of the easiest ways to trade Packed with visual data to bring the topic to life Includes appendices full of additional online resources including trading platforms and discussion forums Designed specially for individual and retail traders The practical, accessible introduction to Forex trading, Start Trading Forex Right Now is essential reading for any trader interested in getting started in currency trading\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Reclaiming Virtue Ethics for Economics
Virtue ethics is an important strand of moral philosophy, and a significant body of philosophical work in virtue ethics is associated with a radical critique of the market economy and of economics. Expressed crudely, the charge sheet is this: The market depends on instrumental rationality and extrinsic motivation; market interactions therefore fail to respect the internal value of human practices and the intrinsic motivations of human actors; by using market exchange as its central model, economics normalizes extrinsic motivation, not only in markets but also in social life more generally; therefore economics is complicit in an assault on virtue and on human flourishing. We will argue that this critique is flawed, both as a description of how markets actually work and as a representation of how classical and neoclassical economists have understood the market. We show how the market and economics can be defended against the critique from virtue ethics, and crucially, this defense is constructed using the language and logic of virtue ethics. Using the methods of virtue ethics and with reference to the writings of some major economists, we propose an understanding of the purpose (telos) of markets as cooperation for mutual benefit, and identify traits that thereby count as virtues for market participants. We conclude that the market need not be seen as a virtue-free zone.
Journal Article