Explore the vast range of titles available.

The paper proposes an explainable Artificial Intelligence model that can be used in credit risk management and, in particular, in measuring the risks that arise when credit is borrowed employing peer to peer lending platforms. The model applies correlation networks to Shapley values so that Artificial Intelligence predictions are grouped according to the similarity in the underlying explanations. The empirical analysis of 15,000 small and medium companies asking for credit reveals that both risky and not risky borrowers can be grouped according to a set of similar financial characteristics, which can be employed to explain their credit score and, therefore, to predict their future behaviour.

Transboundary pollution poses a major threat to environment and human health. An effective approach to addressing this problem is the adoption of long-term abatement technology; however, many developing regions are lacking in related technologies that can be acquired by licensing from developed regions. This study focuses on a differential game model of transboundary pollution between two asymmetric regions, one of which possesses advanced abatement technology that can reduce the abatement cost and licenses this technology to the other region by royalty or fixed-fee licensing. We characterize the equilibrium decisions in the regions and find that fixed-fee licensing is superior to royalty licensing from the viewpoint of both regions. The reason is that under fixed-fee licensing, the regions can gain improved incremental revenues and incur reduced environmental damage. Subsequently, we analyze the steady-state equilibrium behaviors and the effects of parameters on the licensing performance. The analysis indicates that the myopic view of the regions leads to short-term revenue maximization, resulting in an increase in total pollution stock. Moreover, a high level of abatement technology or emission tax prompts the licensee region to choose fixed-fee approach, which is beneficial both economically and environmentally for two regions.

This paper proposes a framework to extract appropriate locational marginal prices for each type of reserve (up-/down-going reserves at both generation- and demand-sides). The proposed reserve pricing scheme accounts for the lost opportunity of selling the convertible products (energy and reserve). The fair prices can be obtained for capacity reserves applying this framework, since this framework assigns the same prices to the same services provided at the same location. The proposed reserve pricing scheme provides all the market participants with the appropriate signals to modify their offers according to the system operator requirements. The pricing problem is decomposed to different hourly sub-problems considering the bounding constraints. To show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, it is applied to the IEEE reliability test system and the results are discussed.

The emergence of big data, information technology, and social media provides an enormous amount of information about firms’ current financial health. When facing this abundance of data, decision makers must identify the crucial information to build upon an effective and operative prediction model with a high quality of the estimated output. The feature selection technique can be used to select significant variables without lowering the quality of performance classification. In addition, one of the main goals of bankruptcy prediction is to identify the model specification with the strongest explanatory power. Building on this premise, an improved XGBoost algorithm based on feature importance selection (FS-XGBoost) is proposed. FS-XGBoost is compared with seven machine learning algorithms based on three well-known feature selection methods that are frequently used in bankruptcy prediction: stepwise discriminant analysis, stepwise logistic regression, and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA). Our experimental results confirm that FS-XGBoost provides more accurate predictions, outperforming traditional feature selection methods.

Frama-C is a source code analysis platform that aims at conducting verification of industrial-size C programs. It provides its users with a collection of plug-ins that perform static analysis, deductive verification, and testing, for safety- and security-critical software. Collaborative verification across cooperating plug-ins is enabled by their integration on top of a shared kernel and datastructures, and their compliance to a common specification language. This foundational article presents a consolidated view of the platform, its main and composite analyses, and some of its industrial achievements.

Reinforcement learning algorithms describe how an agent can learn an optimal action policy in a sequential decision process, through repeated experience. In a given environment, the agent policy provides him some running and terminal rewards. As in online learning, the agent learns sequentially. As in multi-armed bandit problems, when an agent picks an action, he can not infer ex-post the rewards induced by other action choices. In reinforcement learning, his actions have consequences: they influence not only rewards, but also future states of the world. The goal of reinforcement learning is to find an optimal policy – a mapping from the states of the world to the set of actions, in order to maximize cumulative reward, which is a long term strategy. Exploring might be sub-optimal on a short-term horizon but could lead to optimal long-term ones. Many problems of optimal control, popular in economics for more than forty years, can be expressed in the reinforcement learning framework, and recent advances in computational science, provided in particular by deep learning algorithms, can be used by economists in order to solve complex behavioral problems. In this article, we propose a state-of-the-art of reinforcement learning techniques, and present applications in economics, game theory, operation research and finance.

This paper presents a method for creating machine learning models, specifically a gradient boosting model and a random forest model, to forecast real GDP growth. This study focuses on the real GDP growth of Japan and produces forecasts for the years from 2001 to 2018. The forecasts by the International Monetary Fund and Bank of Japan are used as benchmarks. To improve out-of-sample prediction, the cross-validation process, which is designed to choose the optimal hyperparameters, is used. The accuracy of the forecast is measured by mean absolute percentage error and root squared mean error. The results of this paper show that for the 2001–2018 period, the forecasts by the gradient boosting model and random forest model are more accurate than the benchmark forecasts. Between the gradient boosting and random forest models, the gradient boosting model turns out to be more accurate. This study encourages increasing the use of machine learning models in macroeconomic forecasting.

An O( n 3 ) heuristic algorithm is described for solving d -city travelling salesman problems (TSP) whose cost matrix satisfies the triangularity condition. The algorithm involves as substeps the computation of a shortest spanning tree of the graph G defining the TSP and the finding of a minimum cost perfect matching of a certain induced subgraph of G . A worst-case analysis of this heuristic shows that the ratio of the answer obtained to the optimum TSP solution is strictly less than 3/2. This represents a 50% reduction over the value 2 which was the previously best known such ratio for the performance of other polynomial growth algorithms for the TSP.

This article is dedicated analyzing the interdependence of oil prices and exchange rate movements of oil exporting countries (the Russian ruble, Euro, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan, Brazil real, Nigerian naira, Algerian dinar). The study also considers risk-based oil market spillovers in global crisis periods with integrated decision recommendation systems. For this purpose, a fuzzy decision-making model is created by considering the bipolar model and imputation of expert evaluations with collaborative filtering. The main contribution of this study is both its econometric analysis and evaluations based on expert opinions. This helps reach more crucial results. All three of the recent shocks (2008, 2012, 2020) in the oil market are transmitted to foreign exchange markets of oil-producing countries. At the same time, the last shock of 2020 caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet been fully reflected on the Russian ruble exchange rate. Correlation parameters became weaker in the last year, as the Russian ruble correlation coefficient fluctuates between − 0.5 and 0.5. However, before 2020 the spillover effect had a higher significance (in the range from − 0.8 to − 0.1). Nigerian naira and Algerian dinar were showing almost the same movements, while the Russian Ruble was in a different trading range.