Explore the vast range of titles available.

Background Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a key predictor of the success of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, and is potentially amenable to intervention. Insight into predictors or correlates of non-adherence to ART may help guide targets for the development of adherence-enhancing interventions. Our objective was to review evidence on predictors/correlates of adherence to ART, and to aggregate findings into quantitative estimates of their impact on adherence. Methods We searched PubMed for original English-language papers, published between 1996 and June 2014, and the reference lists of all relevant articles found. Studies reporting on predictors/correlates of adherence of adults prescribed ART for chronic HIV infection were included without restriction to adherence assessment method, study design or geographical location. Two researchers independently extracted the data from the same papers. Random effects models with inverse variance weights were used to aggregate findings into pooled effects estimates with 95% confidence intervals. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used as the common effect size. The impact of study design features (adherence assessment method, study design, and the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) of the country in which the study was set) was investigated using categorical mixed effects meta-regression. Results In total, 207 studies were included. The following predictors/correlates were most strongly associated with adherence: adherence self-efficacy (SMD = 0.603, P  = 0.001), current substance use (SMD = -0.395, P  = 0.001), concerns about ART (SMD = -0.388, P  = 0.001), beliefs about the necessity/utility of ART (SMD = 0.357, P  = 0.001), trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider (SMD = 0.377, P  = 0.001), depressive symptoms (SMD = -0.305, P  = 0.001), stigma about HIV (SMD = -0.282, P  = 0.001), and social support (SMD = 0.237, P  = 0.001). Smaller but significant associations were observed for the following being prescribed a protease inhibitor-containing regimen (SMD = -0.196, P  = 0.001), daily dosing frequency (SMD = -0.193, P  = 0.001), financial constraints (SMD -0.187, P  = 0.001) and pill burden (SMD = -0.124, P  = 0.001). Higher trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider, a lower daily dosing frequency, and fewer depressive symptoms were more strongly related with higher adherence in low and medium HDI countries than in high HDI countries. Conclusions These findings suggest that adherence-enhancing interventions should particularly target psychological factors such as self-efficacy and concerns/beliefs about the efficacy and safety of ART. Moreover, these findings suggest that simplification of regimens might have smaller but significant effects.

Background China, like other countries, is facing a growing burden of chronic disease but the prevalence of multimorbidity and implications for the healthcare system have been little researched. We examined the epidemiology of multimorbidity in southern China in a large representative sample. The effects of multimorbidity and other factors on usual source of healthcare were also examined. Methods We conducted a large cross-sectional survey among approximately 5% (N = 162,464) of the resident population in three prefectures in Guangdong province, southern China in 2011. A multistage, stratified random sampling was adopted. The study population had many similar characteristics to the national census population. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect self-report data on demographics, socio-economics, lifestyles, healthcare use, and health characteristics from paper-based medical reports. Results More than one in ten of the total study population (11.1%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.6 to 11.6) had two or more chronic conditions from a selection of 40 morbidities. The prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.36, 95% CI 1.35 to 1.38 per five years). Female gender (aOR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.64 to 1.76), low education (aOR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.29), lack of medical insurance (aOR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.71 to 1.89), and unhealthy lifestyle behaviours were independent predictors of multimorbidity. Multimorbidity was associated with the regular use of secondary outpatient care in preference to primary care. Conclusions Multimorbidity is now common in China. The reported preferential use of secondary care over primary care by patients with multimorbidity has many major implications. There is an urgent need to further develop a strong and equitable primary care system.

Background Intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV are important and interconnected public health concerns. While it is recognized that they share common social drivers, there is limited evidence surrounding the potential of community interventions to reduce violence and HIV risk at the community level. The SASA! study assessed the community-level impact of SASA!, a community mobilization intervention to prevent violence and reduce HIV-risk behaviors. Methods From 2007 to 2012 a pair-matched cluster randomized controlled trial (CRT) was conducted in eight communities (four intervention and four control) in Kampala, Uganda. Cross-sectional surveys of a random sample of community members, 18- to 49-years old, were undertaken at baseline (n = 1,583) and four years post intervention implementation (n = 2,532). Six violence and HIV-related primary outcomes were defined a priori . An adjusted cluster-level intention-to-treat analysis compared outcomes in intervention and control communities at follow-up. Results The intervention was associated with significantly lower social acceptance of IPV among women (adjusted risk ratio 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.38 to 0.79) and lower acceptance among men (0.13, 95% CI 0.01 to 1.15); significantly greater acceptance that a woman can refuse sex among women (1.28, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.52) and men (1.31, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.70); 52% lower past year experience of physical IPV among women (0.48, 95% CI 0.16 to 1.39); and lower levels of past year experience of sexual IPV (0.76, 95% CI 0.33 to 1.72). Women experiencing violence in intervention communities were more likely to receive supportive community responses. Reported past year sexual concurrency by men was significantly lower in intervention compared to control communities (0.57, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.91). Conclusions This is the first CRT in sub-Saharan Africa to assess the community impact of a mobilization program on the social acceptability of IPV, the past year prevalence of IPV and levels of sexual concurrency. SASA! achieved important community impacts, and is now being delivered in control communities and replicated in 15 countries. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT00790959 , Study protocol available at http://www.trialsjournal.com/content/13/1/96

Background Alcohol consumption is a major global risk factor for mortality and morbidity. Much discussion has revolved around the diverse findings on the complex relationship between alcohol consumption and the leading cause of death and disability, ischemic heart disease (IHD). Methods We conducted a systematic search of the literature up to August 2014 using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines to identify meta-analyses and observational studies examining the relationship between alcohol drinking, drinking patterns, and IHD risk, in comparison to lifetime abstainers. In a narrative review we have summarized the many meta-analyses published in the last 10 years, discussing the role of confounding and experimental evidence. We also conducted meta-analyses examining episodic heavy drinking among on average moderate drinkers. Results The narrative review showed that the use of current abstainers as the reference group leads to systematic bias. With regard to average alcohol consumption in relation to lifetime abstainers, the relationship is clearly J-shaped, supported by short-term experimental evidence and similar associations within strata of potential confounders, except among smokers. Women experience slightly stronger beneficial associations and also a quicker upturn to a detrimental effect at lower levels of average alcohol consumption compared to men. There was no evidence that chronic or episodic heavy drinking confers a beneficial effect on IHD risk. People with alcohol use disorder have an elevated risk of IHD (1.5- to 2-fold). Results from our quantitative meta-analysis showed that drinkers with average intake of <30 g/day and no episodic heavy drinking had the lowest IHD risk (relative risk = 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.71). Drinkers with episodic heavy drinking occasions had a risk similar to lifetime abstainers (relative risk = 1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.91 to 1.37). Conclusions Epidemiological evidence for a beneficial effect of low alcohol consumption without heavy drinking episodes is strong, corroborated by experimental evidence. However, episodic and chronic heavy drinking do not provide any beneficial effect on IHD. Thus, average alcohol consumption is not sufficient to describe the risk relation between alcohol consumption and IHD. Alcohol policy should try to reduce heavy drinking patterns.

The complex and unprecedented Ebola epidemic ongoing in West Africa has highlighted the need to review the epidemiological characteristics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) as well as our current understanding of the transmission dynamics and the effect of control interventions against Ebola transmission. Here we review key epidemiological data from past Ebola outbreaks and carry out a comparative review of mathematical models of the spread and control of Ebola in the context of past outbreaks and the ongoing epidemic in West Africa. We show that mathematical modeling offers useful insights into the risk of a major epidemic of EVD and the assessment of the impact of basic public health measures on disease spread. We also discuss the critical need to collect detailed epidemiological data in real-time during the course of an ongoing epidemic, carry out further studies to estimate the effectiveness of interventions during past outbreaks and the ongoing epidemic, and develop large-scale modeling studies to study the spread and control of viral hemorrhagic fevers in the context of the highly heterogeneous economic reality of African countries.

Background Delay in seeking care is a major impediment to effective management of tuberculosis (TB) in China. To elucidate factors that underpin patient and diagnostic delays in TB management, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of factors that are associated with delays in TB care-seeking and diagnosis in the country. Methods This review was prepared following standard procedures of the Cochrane Collaboration and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement and checklist. Relevant studies published up to November 2012 were identified from three major international and Chinese literature databases: Medline/PubMed, EMBASE and CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure). Results We included 29 studies involving 38,947 patients from 17 provinces in China. Qualitative analysis showed that key individual level determinants of delays included socio-demographic and economic factors, mostly poverty, rural residence, lack of health insurance, lower educational attainment, stigma and poor knowledge of TB. Health facility determinants included limited availability of resources to perform prompt diagnosis, lack of qualified health workers and geographical barriers. Quantitative meta-analysis indicated that living in rural areas was a risk factor for patient delays (pooled odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.79 (1.62, 1.98)) and diagnostic delays (pooled OR (95% CI): 1.40 (1.23, 1.59)). Female patients had higher risk of patient delay (pooled OR (95% CI): 1.94 (1.13, 3.33)). Low educational attainment (primary school and below) was also a risk factor for patient delay (pooled OR (95% CI): 2.14 (1.03, 4.47)). The practice of seeking care first from Traditional Chinese Medicine (TMC) providers was also identified as a risk factor for diagnostic delay (pooled OR (95% CI): 5.75 (3.03, 10.94)). Conclusion Patient and diagnostic delays in TB care are mediated by individual and health facility factors. Population-based interventions that seek to reduce TB stigma and raise awareness about the benefits of early diagnosis and prompt treatment are needed. Policies that remove patients’ financial barriers in access to TB care, and integration of the informal care sector into TB control in urban and rural settings are central factors in TB control.

Background To provide evidence on the global epidemiological situation of neonatal hypothermia and to provide recommendations for future policy and research directions. Methods Using PubMed as our principal electronic reference library, we searched studies for prevalence and risk factor data on neonatal hypothermia in resource-limited environments globally. Studies specifying study location, setting (hospital or community based), sample size, case definition of body temperature for hypothermia, temperature measurement method, and point estimates for hypothermia prevalence were eligible for inclusion. Results Hypothermia is common in infants born at hospitals (prevalence range, 32% to 85%) and homes (prevalence range, 11% to 92%), even in tropical environments. The lack of thermal protection is still an underappreciated major challenge for newborn survival in developing countries. Although hypothermia is rarely a direct cause of death, it contributes to a substantial proportion of neonatal mortality globally, mostly as a comorbidity of severe neonatal infections, preterm birth, and asphyxia. Thresholds for the definition of hypothermia vary, and data on its prevalence in neonates is scarce, particularly on a community level in Africa. Conclusions A standardized approach to the collection and analysis of hypothermia data in existing newborn programs and studies is needed to inform policy and program planners on optimal thermal protection interventions. Thermoprotective behavior changes such as skin-to-skin care or the use of appropriate devices have not yet been scaled up globally. The introduction of simple hypothermia prevention messages and interventions into evidence-based, cost-effective packages for maternal and newborn care has promising potential to decrease the heavy global burden of newborn deaths attributable to severe infections, prematurity, and asphyxia. Because preventing and treating newborn hypothermia in health institutions and communities is relatively easy, addressing this widespread challenge might play a substantial role in reaching Millennium Development Goal 4, a reduction of child mortality.

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background Monitoring progress with disease and injury reduction in many populations will require widespread use of verbal autopsy (VA). Multiple methods have been developed for assigning cause of death from a VA but their application is restricted by uncertainty about their reliability. Methods We investigated the validity of five automated VA methods for assigning cause of death: InterVA-4, Random Forest (RF), Simplified Symptom Pattern (SSP), Tariff method (Tariff), and King-Lu (KL), in addition to physician review of VA forms (PCVA), based on 12,535 cases from diverse populations for which the true cause of death had been reliably established. For adults, children, neonates and stillbirths, performance was assessed separately for individuals using sensitivity, specificity, Kappa, and chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and for populations using cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, with and without additional diagnostic information from prior contact with health services. A total of 500 train-test splits were used to ensure that results are robust to variation in the underlying cause of death distribution. Results Three automated diagnostic methods, Tariff, SSP, and RF, but not InterVA-4, performed better than physician review in all age groups, study sites, and for the majority of causes of death studied. For adults, CSMF accuracy ranged from 0.764 to 0.770, compared with 0.680 for PCVA and 0.625 for InterVA; CCC varied from 49.2% to 54.1%, compared with 42.2% for PCVA, and 23.8% for InterVA. For children, CSMF accuracy was 0.783 for Tariff, 0.678 for PCVA, and 0.520 for InterVA; CCC was 52.5% for Tariff, 44.5% for PCVA, and 30.3% for InterVA. For neonates, CSMF accuracy was 0.817 for Tariff, 0.719 for PCVA, and 0.629 for InterVA; CCC varied from 47.3% to 50.3% for the three automated methods, 29.3% for PCVA, and 19.4% for InterVA. The method with the highest sensitivity for a specific cause varied by cause. Conclusions Physician review of verbal autopsy questionnaires is less accurate than automated methods in determining both individual and population causes of death. Overall, Tariff performs as well or better than other methods and should be widely applied in routine mortality surveillance systems with poor cause of death certification practices.

Background Cardiovascular disease and mental health both hold enormous public health importance, both ranking highly in results of the recent Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010). For the first time, the GBD 2010 has systematically and quantitatively assessed major depression as an independent risk factor for the development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) using comparative risk assessment methodology. Methods A pooled relative risk (RR) was calculated from studies identified through a systematic review with strict inclusion criteria designed to provide evidence of independent risk factor status. Accepted case definitions of depression include diagnosis by a clinician or by non-clinician raters adhering to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) or International Classification of Diseases (ICD) classifications. We therefore refer to the exposure in this paper as major depression as opposed to the DSM-IV category of major depressive disorder (MDD). The population attributable fraction (PAF) was calculated using the pooled RR estimate. Attributable burden was calculated by multiplying the PAF by the underlying burden of IHD estimated as part of GBD 2010. Results The pooled relative risk of developing IHD in those with major depression was 1.56 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.87). Globally there were almost 4 million estimated IHD disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which can be attributed to major depression in 2010; 3.5 million years of life lost and 250,000 years of life lived with a disability. These findings highlight a previously underestimated mortality component of the burden of major depression. As a proportion of overall IHD burden, 2.95% (95% CI 1.48 to 4.46%) of IHD DALYs were estimated to be attributable to MDD in 2010. Eastern Europe and North Africa/Middle East demonstrate the highest proportion with Asia Pacific, high income representing the lowest. Conclusions The present work comprises the most robust systematic review of its kind to date. The key finding that major depression may be responsible for approximately 3% of global IHD DALYs warrants assessment for depression in patients at high risk of developing IHD or at risk of a repeat IHD event.