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The variability of methane emissions from wetlands in the tropics and northern temperate regions can explain more than 70% of the interannual variation in global wetland methane emissions, which are largely driven by climate variability. We use climate reanalysis, remote sensing wetland area dataset and simulations from 11 land models contributing to Global Methane Budget to investigate the interannual variation and anomalies of wetland methane emissions in the Asian Monsoon region. Methane emissions in this region steadily increased over 2000–2012. However, abnormally low methane emissions were found in equatorial fully humid (Af), warm temperate winter dry (Cw), and warm temperate fully humid (Cf) Asian Monsoon climate sub-regions in 2008, 2009 and 2011, respectively. These spatially-shifting low emissions occurred simultaneously with observed wetland area shrinkage due to abnormally low precipitation. Interannual variability of wetland methane emissions in Asian Monsoon region are primarily driven by South Asian Monsoon system. However, the abnormally low emissions are related to strong La Niña events, and its accompanying effect of weakened East Asian Monsoon system and eastward Western Pacific subtropical high, which drives the shifting pattern of rainfall, and thus the spatial pattern of methane emission anomalies.

Manual closed chamber methods are widely used for CH 4 measurement from rice paddies. Despite diurnal and seasonal variations in CH 4 emissions, fixed sampling times, usually during the day, are used. Here, we monitored CH 4 emission from rice paddies for one complete rice-growing season. Daytime CH 4 emission increased from 0800 h, and maximal emission was observed at 1200 h. Daily averaged CH 4 flux increased during plant growth or fertilizer application and decreased upon drainage of plants. CH 4 measurement results were linearly interpolated and matched with the daily averaged CH 4 emission calculated from the measured results. The time when daily averaged emission and the interpolated CH 4 curve coincided during the daytime was largely invariant within each of the five distinctive periods. One-hourly sampling during each of these five periods was utilized to estimate the emission during each period, and we found that five one-hourly samples during the season accurately reflected the CH 4 emission calculated based on all 136 hourly samples. This new sampling scheme is simple and more efficient than current sampling practices. Previously reported sampling schemes yielded estimates 9 to 32% higher than the measured CH 4 emission, while our suggested scheme yielded an estimate that was only 5% different from that based on all 136-h samples. The sampling scheme proposed in this study can be used in rice paddy fields in Korea and extended worldwide to countries that use similar farming practices. This sampling scheme will help in producing more accurate global methane budget from rice paddy fields .

We have constructed an atmospheric inversion framework based on TM5-4DVAR to jointly assimilate measurements of methane and δ13C of methane in order to estimate source-specific methane emissions. Here we present global emission estimates from this framework for the period 1999–2016. We assimilate a newly constructed, multi-agency database of CH4 and δ13C measurements. We find that traditional CH4-only atmospheric inversions are unlikely to estimate emissions consistent with atmospheric δ13C data, and assimilating δ13C data is necessary to derive emissions consistent with both measurements. Our framework attributes ca. 85 % of the post-2007 growth in atmospheric methane to microbial sources, with about half of that coming from the tropics between 23.5∘ N and 23.5∘ S. This contradicts the attribution of the recent growth in the methane budget of the Global Carbon Project (GCP). We find that the GCP attribution is only consistent with our top-down estimate in the absence of δ13C data. We find that at global and continental scales, δ13C data can separate microbial from fossil methane emissions much better than CH4 data alone, and at smaller scales this ability is limited by the current δ13C measurement coverage. Finally, we find that the largest uncertainty in using δ13C data to separate different methane source types comes from our knowledge of atmospheric chemistry, specifically the distribution of tropospheric chlorine and the isotopic discrimination of the methane sink.

We use satellite (GOSAT) and in situ (GLOBALVIEWplus CH4 ObsPack) observations of atmospheric methane in a joint global inversion of methane sources, sinks, and trends for the 2010–2017 period. The inversion is done by analytical solution to the Bayesian optimization problem, yielding closed-form estimates of information content to assess the consistency and complementarity (or redundancy) of the satellite and in situ data sets. We find that GOSAT and in situ observations are to a large extent complementary, with GOSAT providing a stronger overall constraint on the global methane distributions, but in situ observations being more important for northern midlatitudes and for relaxing global error correlations between methane emissions and the main methane sink (oxidation by OH radicals). The in-situ-only and the GOSAT-only inversions alone achieve 113 and 212 respective independent pieces of information (DOFS) for quantifying mean 2010–2017 anthropogenic emissions on 1009 global model grid elements, and respective DOFS of 67 and 122 for 2010–2017 emission trends. The joint GOSAT+ in situ inversion achieves DOFS of 262 and 161 for mean emissions and trends, respectively. Thus, the in situ data increase the global information content from the GOSAT-only inversion by 20 %–30 %. The in-situ-only and GOSAT-only inversions show consistent corrections to regional methane emissions but are less consistent in optimizing the global methane budget. The joint inversion finds that oil and gas emissions in the US and Canada are underestimated relative to the values reported by these countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and used here as prior estimates, whereas coal emissions in China are overestimated. Wetland emissions in North America are much lower than in the mean WetCHARTs inventory used as a prior estimate. Oil and gas emissions in the US increase over the 2010–2017 period but decrease in Canada and Europe. The joint inversion yields a global methane emission of 551 Tg a−1 averaged over 2010–2017 and a methane lifetime of 11.2 years against oxidation by tropospheric OH (86 % of the methane sink).

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations)

Methane is an important greenhouse gas 1 , but the role of trees in the methane budget remains uncertain 2 . Although it has been shown that wetland and some upland trees can emit soil-derived methane at the stem base 3 , 4 , it has also been suggested that upland trees can serve as a net sink for atmospheric methane 5 , 6 . Here we examine in situ woody surface methane exchange of upland tropical, temperate and boreal forest trees. We find that methane uptake on woody surfaces, in particular at and above about 2 m above the forest floor, can dominate the net ecosystem contribution of trees, resulting in a net tree methane sink. Stable carbon isotope measurement of methane in woody surface chamber air and process-level investigations on extracted wood cores are consistent with methanotrophy, suggesting a microbially mediated drawdown of methane on and in tree woody surfaces and tissues. By applying terrestrial laser scanning-derived allometry to quantify global forest tree woody surface area, a preliminary first estimate suggests that trees may contribute 24.6–49.9 Tg of atmospheric methane uptake globally. Our findings indicate that the climate benefits of tropical and temperate forest protection and reforestation may be greater than previously assumed. Studies of in situ woody surface methane exchange in upland tropical, temperate and boreal forest trees find that methane uptake can result in a net tree methane sink that is globally significant and demonstrates an additional climate benefit provided by trees.

Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas methane are rising, but the reasons remain incompletely understood. Roughly one-fifth of the increase in radiative forcing by human-linked greenhouse gases since 1750 is due to methane. The past three decades have seen prolonged periods of increasing atmospheric methane, but the growth rate slowed in the 1990s ( 1 ), and from 1999 to 2006, the methane burden (that is, the total amount of methane in the air) was nearly constant. Yet strong growth resumed in 2007. The reasons for these observed changes remain poorly understood because of limited knowledge of what controls the global methane budget ( 2 ).

Methane fluxes from the stems of Amazonian floodplain trees indicate that the escape of soil gas through wetland trees is the dominant source of methane emissions in the Amazon basin. Missing methane in the Amazon Wetlands are the single largest global source of the greenhouse gas methane, but the contribution of the Amazon floodplain, the largest natural geographic source of methane in the tropics, remains poorly understood. Methane emission inventories underestimate the atmospheric burden of methane determined via remote sensing and inversion modelling. This paper reports on methane fluxes from the stems of Amazonian floodplain trees and finds that gas leaving the soil through wetland trees is the dominant source of regional methane emissions. The authors also provide an estimate of methane emission for the Amazon basin based on atmospheric methane profiles and find that it can be reconciled with the combined emission estimate from floodplain trees and other regional methane sources. Overall, the findings suggest that the large methane emission from trees could be what was missing from the Amazon budget. Wetlands are the largest global source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) 1 , a potent greenhouse gas. However, methane emission inventories from the Amazon floodplain 2 , 3 , the largest natural geographic source of CH 4 in the tropics, consistently underestimate the atmospheric burden of CH 4 determined via remote sensing and inversion modelling 4 , 5 , pointing to a major gap in our understanding of the contribution of these ecosystems to CH 4 emissions. Here we report CH 4 fluxes from the stems of 2,357 individual Amazonian floodplain trees from 13 locations across the central Amazon basin. We find that escape of soil gas through wetland trees is the dominant source of regional CH 4 emissions. Methane fluxes from Amazon tree stems were up to 200 times larger than emissions reported for temperate wet forests 6 and tropical peat swamp forests 7 , representing the largest non-ebullitive wetland fluxes observed. Emissions from trees had an average stable carbon isotope value (δ 13 C) of −66.2 ± 6.4 per mil, consistent with a soil biogenic origin. We estimate that floodplain trees emit 15.1 ± 1.8 to 21.2 ± 2.5 teragrams of CH 4 a year, in addition to the 20.5 ± 5.3 teragrams a year emitted regionally from other sources. Furthermore, we provide a ‘top-down’ regional estimate of CH 4 emissions of 42.7 ± 5.6 teragrams of CH 4 a year for the Amazon basin, based on regular vertical lower-troposphere CH 4 profiles covering the period 2010–2013. We find close agreement between our ‘top-down’ and combined ‘bottom-up’ estimates, indicating that large CH 4 emissions from trees adapted to permanent or seasonal inundation can account for the emission source that is required to close the Amazon CH 4 budget. Our findings demonstrate the importance of tree stem surfaces in mediating approximately half of all wetland CH 4 emissions in the Amazon floodplain, a region that represents up to one-third of the global wetland CH 4 source when trees are combined with other emission sources.

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Methane emissions from organic-rich soils in the Arctic have been extensively studied due to their potential to increase the atmospheric methane burden as permafrost thaws1–3. However, this methane source might have been overestimated without considering high-affinity methanotrophs (HAMs; methane-oxidizing bacteria) recently identified in Arctic mineral soils4–7. Herein we find that integrating the dynamics of HAMs and methanogens into a biogeochemistry model8–10 that includes permafrost soil organic carbon dynamics3 leads to the upland methane sink doubling (~5.5 Tg CH4 yr−1) north of 50 °N in simulations from 2000–2016. The increase is equivalent to at least half of the difference in net methane emissions estimated between process-based models and observation-based inversions11,12, and the revised estimates better match site-level and regional observations5,7,13–15. The new model projects doubled wetland methane emissions between 2017–2100 due to more accessible permafrost carbon16–18. However, most of the increase in wetland emissions is offset by a concordant increase in the upland sink, leading to only an 18% increase in net methane emission (from 29 to 35 Tg CH4 yr−1). The projected net methane emissions may decrease further due to different physiological responses between HAMs and methanogens in response to increasing temperature19,20.Models overestimate Arctic methane emissions compared to observations. Incorporating microbial dynamics into biogeochemistry models helps reconcile this discrepancy; high-affinity methanotrophs are an important part of the Arctic methane budget and double previous estimates of methane sinks.