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"Military planning China 21st century."
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Chinese military modernization and force development : a Western perspective
China's military development has become a key focus of US security policy as well as that of virtually all Asia-Pacific states. This report examines trends in Chinese strategy, military spending, and military forces based on Chinese defense white papers and other official Chinese sources; US reporting by the Department of Defense and other defense agencies; and other government sources, including Japanese and Korean defense white papers and the International Monetary Fund. The analysis also draws on the work of experts outside of government, various research centers, and nongovernmental organizations. The goal is to provide a comparison of different views and sources, contrasting Chinese and outside views and highlighting the trends where adequate data are available, as well as the problems, gaps, and contradictions in various sources. The report is not intended to provide a particular view of Chinese developments or policy recommendations, but rather to act as a reference that can be used in US and Chinese military dialogue and by other experts looking for a comparison of official sources and the trends in Chinese forces.
Book
Chinese Responses to U.S. Military Transformation and Implications for the Department of Defense
For the past decade, Chinese military strategists have keenly observed the changes in U.S. national strategy and military transformation. This report examines the constraints, facilitators, and potential options for Chinese responses to U.S. transformation efforts and offers possible U.S. counterresponses (particularly in light of whether Taiwan moves toward or away from formal independence).
eBook
The European Union and Emerging Powers in the 21st Century
The emergence of new powers fundamentally questions the traditional views on international relations, multilateralism or security as a range of countries now competes for regional and global leadership - economically, politically, technologically and militarily. As the focus of international attention shifts from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the European states in particular are seen to lose influence relative to the emerging economic powerhouses of China, Russia, India and Brazil. European nations find themselves too small to engage meaningfully with these continent-sized powers and, in an increasingly multipolar world are concerned their influence can only continue to decline. This book analyses the shifts in the structure of global power and examines the threats and opportunities they bring to Europe. Leading European Contributors reflect on how the EU can utilise collective strength to engage and compete with rapidly developing nations. They examine perceptions of the EU among the emerging powers and the true meaning and nature of any strategic partnerships negotiated. Finally they explore the shape and structure of the international system in the 21st century and how the EU can contribute to and shape it.
eBook
Economic Statecraft in the 21st Century: Implications for the Future of the Global Trade Regime
This article introduces a special issue that examines the effects of strategic competition on the future of the global trade regime. We argue that traditional work in economics and the current set-up of global economic regimes ignores economic statecraft as a key element in understanding trade conflict. Specifically, we outline three examples of contemporary economic statecraft – industrial policy, trade restrictions, and new investment rules – that have been used to block foreign direct investment on the basis of national security claims. Based on this analysis, we explore how the WTO and other economic regimes might address the global economic governance of economic statecraft. In concluding, we outline the theoretical and empirical work in the subsequent case studies that examine the use of economic statecraft in the United States, China, India, Japan, and South Korea.
Journal Article
China's New “Black Box”: Problems and Prospects for the Central National Security Commission
China's establishment of a Central National Security Commission (CNSC) in late 2013 was a potentially transformative event in the evolution of China's national security decision-making structure. Yet, as of mid-2017, few details about this organization and its activities have been released, leading to continuing questions about its likely role and functions in the Chinese system. Based on an analysis of numerous authoritative but under-utilized Chinese sources, this article addresses the rationale, prospects and implications of the CNSC. It argues that the organization is both a fulfilment of a long-held desire by many in China for a centralized, permanent national security deliberation forum and also a reflection of the unique challenges facing China in the 21st century. Contrary to existing analyses, which argue that the CNSC is likely to be focused primarily on domestic security tasks, the article contends that it is more likely to play a major role in both internal and external security affairs. Moreover, the article argues that if certain obstacles can be addressed, the CNSC may have broad implications in areas ranging from China's crisis response capability to the role played by the Chinese Communist Party general secretary in the national security decision-making process. The conclusion recaps the findings and suggests avenues for further research. 中国在 2013 年底设立的中央国家安全委员会 (简称为国安委) 成为了中国国家安全决策结构演变的潜在的改革性的时刻. 但是, 截至 2015 年后期, 中国公布了较少关于国安委的结构和行动的信息, 而引起了对于它在中国体系的作用和职能的持续问题. 这片文章采用了各种不常利用的权威性的研究资料而进行了对于国安委的意图, 前途, 和影响力的探索. 本篇文章认为国安委的成立不仅实现了建立一个固定的国家安全决策机构长期持有的期望, 也是中国在 21 世纪面临的独特挑战的反映。 现有研究分析认为国安委的主要任务集中在国内安全事务, 但本文章却认为组织更有可能发挥内部以及外部安全事务的重大作用. 此外, 文章认为, 如果某些障碍能取得解决, 国安委即可影响到各种各样的安全领域, 包括了中国的危机应对能力以及中共总书记在国家安全决策过程中的角色等领域. 结论重述结果和提出了进一步研究的领域。
Journal Article
Silk roads of the twenty-first century: The cultural dimension
Much has been written about China's grand project of the twenty-first century, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road-or the Belt and Road Initiative. It is set to lift living standards through the provision of infrastructure and better connectivity where these are lacking. While economic resources are enumerated, and the maps of roads and corridors have been drafted, the cultural dimension is understudied. Beijing has not helped in this regard. Apart from vague slogans like 'win-win cooperation', 'mutual respect' and 'community of common destiny', there has been no concerted effort to showcase China's thought culture that is eminently suited to precisely this type of venture. If collaboration, even more than connectivity, is the necessary glue for bringing the regions of the Belt and Road together, then China needs to heed the advice of its own great philosophers.
Journal Article
U.S. Homeland Defense Strategic Public Health: An Underutilized but Desperately Needed Concept
US Homeland Defense Strategic Public Health is an underutilized concept within the national security community. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of strategic health diplomacy in addressing global health threats. The pandemic has not only been a public health crisis but also an economic, social, and political crisis. Countries that adhered to guidelines set by the World Health Organization were better able to tackle the pandemic. Strong leadership and reliable governments were crucial in effectively addressing the crisis. The US must be prepared for future pandemics and should invest in global public health strategy. Strategic health diplomacy can be a diplomatic tool of soft power and a means to build trust and partnerships with other countries. The US should take a proactive approach and establish protocols for dealing with disease outbreaks. Public health is a national security imperative and should be considered a force multiplier. The US should invest in global public health strategy to advance its national strategic interests and improve the lives of people around the globe.
Journal Article
Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation
In an era of great power competition, the role of alliances in
managing escalation of conflict has acquired renewed importance.
Nuclear weapons remain the ultimate means for deterrence and
controlling escalation, and are central to US alliances in Europe
and the Indo-Pacific. However, allies themselves need to better
prepare for managing escalation in an increasingly challenging
geostrategic and technological environment for the US and its
allies. While the challenge of great power competition is acute at
both ends of Eurasia, adversary threats, geography and the
institutional context of US alliances differ. This book brings
together leading experts from Europe, Northeast Asia, the United
States and Australia to focus on these challenges, identify
commonalities and differences across regions, and pinpoint ways to
collectively manage nuclear deterrence and potential escalation
pathways in America's 21st century alliances.
eBook
China's Seaport Diplomacy: Theories and Practice
China has developed a new chain of commercial seaports along the Maritime Silk Road. These ports are unlike those used by overseas military bases of the United States. While the former focuses on the economic development of China and other involved countries through investment, trade, infrastructure construction and international shipping center development, the latter is at the service of the U.S. security strategy underpinned by goals to strengthen alliances, fight terrorism, expand influence and support proxies. China has gained extensive experience from its seaport reform. Opening-up programs like the \"Shekou model\" promote business opportunities in addition to the essential services, and define the port area as the \"frontier\", the industrial park as the \"middle ground\", and the port city as the \"backyard\". Based on such experience, China is ready to contribute to the development, peace and stability of emerging countries along the Maritime Silk Road and explore seaport diplomacy with Chinese resilience, diligence and foresight. China's seaport diplomacy is market-oriented and involves companies as key players. It is also supported by government coordination. Seaport diplomacy has increased connectivity and interdependence between countries and regions along the Maritime Silk Road, and helps avoid the \"zero-sum game\" and the \"core-peripheral\" asymmetrical relationship of dependence. China's participation in the development of seaports along the Maritime Silk Road has facilitated the industrialization process of the countries involved and benefited local communities. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the maritime militarization and democratization pursued by some Western countries. Nevertheless, China's participation in the development of seaports along the Maritime Silk Road also faces economic, legal, political, and security risks. Thus, caution should be given to the tendency to politicize China's seaport development.
Journal Article
Missile Defence Discourses and Practices in Relevant Modalities of 21st-Century Deterrence
In recent considerations of deterrence in strategic studies, there are almost no works that would systematically link deterrence to one of the most important current issue areas of contemporary strategic studies: ballistic missile defence (BMD). In an attempt to address this lacuna, this article considers ways in which missile defence has been – and can be – intertwined with deterrence of the 21st century. The article begins with a historical outline of the relationship between nuclear deterrence and BMD, and continues by comparing and contrasting US political and strategic-planning discourses in how they have addressed the examined relationship. What follows is the recasting of traditional understanding of deterrence as a set of disparate modalities under-pinned by different principles and organizing logics. The article will show the role and function of BMD in three relevant modalities of deterrence in the 21st century: first, in a renewed strategic deterrence between the USA and Russia based on an axiomatic logic of MAD; second, in the deterrence of rogue states in reaction to their asymmetric nuclear threats; and, finally, in a reverse deterrence from intervention in regional conflicts. Consequently, the presented outline of the three modalities will be theoretically furthered to allow for conceptualization of possible links to BMD in ways in which practical implications for future research, strategic planning and political action can be seen.
Journal Article