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This paper used the newest bootstrap ARDL model to explore a Sino-US arms race and the correlation between military spending and gross debt between China and the United States covering the period from 1995 to 2016. The results showed that military spending positively affected gross debt, while gross debt negatively affected military spending in China and the United States. Furthermore, from the Chinese point of view, when China?s economy was prospering, a Sino-US arms race took place by separately using interest rates and gross debt of China and the US as control variables to explore the Sino-US arms race. If logically speaking, there had been a Chinese economic recession, military spending would have been crowded out, and the Sino-US arms race may not have happened. From the perspective of the US, the US is threatened by China?s rapid economic growth which triggers the United States to initiate a Sino-US arms competition.

We use rich historical data on military procurement to estimate the effects of government spending. We exploit regional variation in military buildups to estimate an \"open economy relative multiplier\" of approximately 1.5. We develop a framework for interpreting this estimate and relating it to estimates of the standard closed economy aggregate multiplier. The latter is highly sensitive to how strongly aggregate monetary and tax policy \"leans against the wind.\" Our open economy relative multiplier \"differences out\" these effects because monetary and tax policies are uniform across the nation. Our evidence indicates that demand shocks can have large effects on output.

In the post–Cold War period, scholars have considered the Asia Pacific to be ripe for military competition and conflict. Developments over the past decade have deepened these expectations. Across the region, rising military spending and efforts of various states to bolster their military capabilities appear to have created an increasingly volatile climate, along with potentially vicious cycles of mutual arming and rearming. In this context, claims that China's rapid economic growth and surging military spending are fomenting destabilizing arms races and security dilemmas are widespread. Such claims make for catchy headlines, yet they are rarely subject to rigorous empirical tests. Whether patterns of military competition in the Asia Pacific are in fact attributable to a security dilemma–based logic has important implications for international relations theory and foreign policy. The answer has direct consequences for how leaders can maximize the likelihood that peace and stability will prevail in this economically and strategically vital region. A systematic empirical test derived from influential theoretical scholarship on the security dilemma concept assesses the drivers of bilateral and multilateral frictions and military competition under way in the Asia Pacific. Security dilemma–driven competition appears to be an important contributor, yet the outcome is not structurally determined. Although this military competition could grow significantly in the near future, there are a number of available measures that could help to ameliorate or manage some of its worst aspects.

The ecological consequences of military spending is a hugely neglected area, and a veil of mystery surrounds this topic. The environmental threats posed by militaries remain insufficiently investigated in the name of national security. Prompted by the internal and external conflicts and prolonged military dictatorships, the Pakistani military assumes a role that goes beyond that of a traditional army. The current study addresses this significant gap in the literature by investigating the impacts of military spending on economic growth and the ecological footprint in Pakistan from 1971 to 2016 using the combined cointegration test and the bootstrap causality test. The findings of the study unveil a positive impact of military spending on the ecological footprint, while a negative impact on economic growth. The outcomes of the bootstrap causality test of Hacker and Hatemi-J ( 2012 ) highlight that economic growth Granger causes military spending, while causality runs from military spending to the ecological footprint. Energy consumption contributes to the ecological footprint and economic growth, whereas education expenditures do not influence economic growth and the environment in the long run. Further, the findings suggest a U-shaped link between GDP and footprint in Pakistan. The authorities should focus on resolving external and internal conflicts, on a priority basis, and reduce military spending to improve economic growth and the environment.

The public places an important constraint on funding security in Europe, and austerity risks making the constraint tighter. Several recent studies show that curtailing military spending is a popular way to reduce debt in Europe. Yet it remains unclear if military spending aversion persists when threats are salient. We fielded an original survey experiment in Italy weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine to examine how information about security threats influences military spending preferences and fiscal trade-offs. We found that information about threats increases support for military spending. To validate the survey experiment, we recontacted and remeasured our respondent's preferences three weeks after Russia's invasion and find evidence consistent with our initial experiment. Our findings suggest that, while public opposition to military spending remains high in Italy, external threats dampen the public's opposition to military spending, even under high debt burdens.

This essay briefly reviews the state of knowledge about the government spending multiplier. Drawing on theoretical work, aggregate empirical estimates from the United States, as well as cross-locality estimates, I assess the likely range of multiplier values for the experiment most relevant to the stimulus package debate: a temporary, deficit-financed increase in government purchases. I conclude that the multiplier for this type of spending is probably between 0.8 and 1.5.

This study aims to examine the relationship between military expenditure and environmental sustainability in developed Mediterranean countries: Greece, France, Italy, and Spain. Sustainable economic growth is strictly related to energy consumption which leads to producing a higher level of carbon emissions. Besides, there may be a nexus between military expenditures and environmental pollution. This study focuses on developed Mediterranean countries since carbon emissions and greenhouse gas emissions are relatively high in these countries. Furthermore, France and Italy are the top countries in terms of total military spending. We investigate the relationship between military expenditure and carbon emissions using the Global Vector Autoregression model proposed by Pesaran et al. (J Bus Econ Stat 22 129:162, Pesaran et al., J Bus Econ Stat 22:129–162, 2004) and Dees et al. (J Appl Econ 22(1):38, Dees et al., J Appl Econ 22:1–38, 2007) between 1965 and 2019. The empirical findings indicated that the relationship between carbon emission and military expenditure should be taken into account from a global perspective for environmental sustainability, and an increase in the global military expenditure seems to be very harmful to the global environment. It can be concluded that country-based prevention cannot provide the desired solution in combating environmental pollution.

How does increasing military spending affect social spending and economic growth? We argue leaders vary in their preferences over how to pay for military spending and failing to account for interdependence among methods of government finance, government spending, and economic performance limits scholars' ability to identify the consequences of military spending. We use vector autoregressive models to estimate the relationships among military spending, social spending, economic growth, tax revenue, debt, and the money supply in the United States between 1947 and 2007. We find that increasing military spending has a nonlinear effect on economic growth that varies over time and the existence of a guns-versus-butter trade-off is conditional on the relative importance leaders place on protecting the social welfare state, borrowing money, and keeping taxes low when increasing military spending.

A key question that has arisen during recent debates is whether government spending multipliers are larger during times when resources are idle. This paper seeks to shed light on this question by analyzing new quarterly historical data covering multiple large wars and depressions in the United States and Canada. Using Jorda's (2005) method for estimating impulse responses, we find no evidence that multipliers are greater during periods of high unemployment in the United States. In every case, they are below unity. We do find evidence of higher multipliers during periods of slack in Canada, with some multipliers above unity.

This article identifies and addresses key conceptual and measurement issues raised by measures of state capacity in studies of civil conflict. First, it reviews competing definitions and operationalizations of state capacity, focusing specifically on those that emphasize (1) military capacity, (2) bureaucratic administrative capacity, and (3) the quality and coherence of political institutions. Second, it critically assesses these measures on the basis of construct validity, focusing attention on whether they accurately capture the theoretical concept of state capacity, and whether they allow the researcher to differentiate between competing causal mechanisms. Third, it employs principal factor analysis to identify the underlying dimensionality of 15 different operationalizations of state capacity. State capacity is characterized by low dimensionality, with three factors — or dimensions of state capacity — explaining over 90% of the variance in the 15 measures. While the first factor, rational legality, captures bureaucratic and administrative capacity, the second, rentier-autocraticness, and third, neopatrimoniality, capture aspects of state capacity that cut across theoretical categories. The article concludes by suggesting a multivariate approach to modeling state capacity, and that (1) survey measures of bureaucratic quality, and (2) tax capacity are the most theoretically and empirically justified.