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486,373 result(s) for "Modeling."
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Earth-friendly clay crafts in 5 easy steps
\"Provides step-by-step instructions on how to create fourteen simple clay crafts and includes a vegan recipe for homemade clay\"--Provided by publisher.
Dynamics Near the Subcritical Transition of the 3D Couette Flow I: Below Threshold Case
The authors study small disturbances to the periodic, plane Couette flow in the 3D incompressible Navier-Stokes equations at high Reynolds number Re. They prove that for sufficiently regular initial data of size $\\epsilon \\leq c_0\\mathbf {Re}^-1$ for some universal $c_0 > 0$, the solution is global, remains within $O(c_0)$ of the Couette flow in $L^2$, and returns to the Couette flow as $t \\rightarrow \\infty $. For times $t \\gtrsim \\mathbf {Re}^1/3$, the streamwise dependence is damped by a mixing-enhanced dissipation effect and the solution is rapidly attracted to the class of \"2.5 dimensional\" streamwise-independent solutions referred to as streaks.
Coastal Supra‐Permafrost Aquifers of the Arctic and Their Significant Groundwater, Carbon, and Nitrogen Fluxes
Fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) can deliver significant fluxes of water and solutes from land to sea. In the Arctic, which accounts for ∼34% of coastlines globally, direct observations and knowledge of FSGD are scarce. Through integration of observations and process‐based models, we found that regardless of ice‐bonded permafrost depth at the shore, summer SGD flow dynamics along portions of the Beaufort Sea coast of Alaska are similar to those in lower latitudes. Calculated summer FSGD fluxes in the Arctic are generally higher relative to low latitudes. The FSGD organic carbon and nitrogen fluxes are likely larger than summer riverine input. The FSGD also has very high CO2 making it a potentially significant source of inorganic carbon. Thus, the biogeochemistry of Arctic coastal waters is potentially influenced by groundwater inputs during summer. These water and solute fluxes will likely increase as coastal permafrost across the Arctic thaws. Plain Language Summary Groundwater flows from land to sea, transporting freshwater, organic matter, nutrients, and other solutes that impact coastal ecosystems. However, along coasts of the rapidly‐warming Arctic, there is limited knowledge regarding how much fresh groundwater enters the ocean. Using field observations and numerical models, we show that groundwater flowing from tundra in northern coastal Alaska carries large amounts of freshwater, organic matter, and carbon dioxide to the Arctic lagoons during summer. These inputs are likely significant to coastal biogeochemical cycling and marine food webs. Groundwater discharge and the associated transport of dissolved materials are expected to increase due to longer periods of above‐zero temperatures that thaw frozen soils below the tundra. Key Points Summer fresh submarine groundwater discharge (FSGD) to the Alaskan Beaufort Sea is only 3%–7% of rivers but carries as much organic matter Summer FSGD delivers a median of 116 (interquartile range: 35–405) and 6 (2–21) kg/d per km dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen Fresh groundwater at the beach of Simpson Lagoon (SL) has a median PCO2 of ∼33,000 μatm implying substantial CO2 flux
BioRT‐HBV 1.0: A Biogeochemical Reactive Transport Model at the Watershed Scale
Reactive Transport Models (RTMs) are essential tools for understanding and predicting intertwined ecohydrological and biogeochemical processes on land and in rivers. While traditional RTMs have focused primarily on subsurface processes, recent watershed‐scale RTMs have integrated ecohydrological and biogeochemical interactions between surface and subsurface. These emergent, watershed‐scale RTMs are often spatially explicit and require extensive data, computational power, and computational expertise. There is however a pressing need to create parsimonious models that require minimal data and are accessible to scientists with limited computational background. To that end, we have developed BioRT‐HBV 1.0, a watershed‐scale, hydro‐biogeochemical RTM that builds upon the widely used, bucket‐type HBV model known for its simplicity and minimal data requirements. BioRT‐HBV uses the conceptual structure and hydrology output of HBV to simulate processes including advective solute transport and biogeochemical reactions that depend on reaction thermodynamics and kinetics. These reactions include, for example, chemical weathering, soil respiration, and nutrient transformation. The model uses time series of weather (air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration) and initial biogeochemical conditions of subsurface water, soils, and rocks as input, and output times series of reaction rates and solute concentrations in subsurface waters and rivers. This paper presents the model structure and governing equations and demonstrates its utility with examples simulating carbon and nitrogen processes in a headwater catchment. As shown in the examples, BioRT‐HBV can be used to illuminate the dynamics of biogeochemical reactions in the invisible, arduous‐to‐measure subsurface, and their influence on the observed stream or river chemistry and solute export. With its parsimonious structure and easy‐to‐use graphical user interface, BioRT‐HBV can be a useful research tool for users without in‐depth computational training. It can additionally serve as an educational tool that promotes pollination of ideas across disciplines and foster a diverse, equal, and inclusive user community. Plain Language Summary Reactive Transport models (RTMs) are essential tools to understand the movement of water, nutrients and other elements from land to rivers and their interactions with each other. Recent watershed scale RTMs, unlike earlier ones that primarily focus on the subsurface processes, have integrated belowground processes and above‐ground dynamics and characteristics including changing weather and vegetation cover. However, these models require large amount of data and are challenging for users with limited computational background. Here we developed BioRT‐HBV 1.0, a parsimonious, watershed‐scale RTM with a graphical user interface that is comparatively easy to learn and use and requires minimal data. BioRT‐HBV can simulate a wide variety of processes like chemical weathering, carbon and nutrient transformation, soil organic carbon decomposition, among others. Here, we introduce the model structure, its governing equations, and examples that demonstrate the use of model in simulating carbon and nitrogen processes. We put forward this model as a potential research and educational tool that can be used by students and researchers from diverse disciplines. Key Points We introduce BioRT‐HBV, a watershed scale reactive transport model that is parsimonious, flexible with reaction network, easy to use and requires minimal data BioRT‐HBV can simulate a variety of user‐defined biogeochemical processes, including carbon and nitrogen processes BioRT‐HBV is open source for any researchers interested in ecohydrological and biogeochemical reactive transport processes
Combining a Multi‐Lake Model Ensemble and a Multi‐Domain CORDEX Climate Data Ensemble for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Lake Sevan
Global warming is shifting the thermal dynamics of lakes, with resulting climatic variability heavily affecting their mixing dynamics. We present a dual ensemble workflow coupling climate models with lake models. We used a large set of simulations across multiple domains, multi‐scenario, and multi GCM‐ RCM combinations from CORDEX data. We forced a set of multiple hydrodynamic lake models by these multiple climate simulations to explore climate change impacts on lakes. We also quantified the contributions from the different models to the overall uncertainty. We employed this workflow to investigate the effects of climate change on Lake Sevan (Armenia). We predicted for the end of the 21st century, under RCP 8.5, a sharp increase in surface temperature (4.3±0.7K)$(4.3\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$and substantial bottom warming (1.7±0.7K)$(1.7\\pm 0.7\\,\\mathrm{K})$ , longer stratification periods (+55 days) and disappearance of ice cover leading to a shift in mixing regime. Increased insufficient cooling during warmer winters points to the vulnerability of Lake Sevan to climate change. Our workflow leverages the strengths of multiple models at several levels of the model chain to provide a more robust projection and at the same time a better uncertainty estimate that accounts for the contributions of the different model levels to overall uncertainty. Although for specific variables, for example, summer bottom temperature, single lake models may perform better, the full ensemble provides a robust estimate of thermal dynamics that has a high transferability so that our workflow can be a blueprint for climate impact studies in other systems. Plain Language Summary Lakes are threatened by climate change because of effects related to the increasing temperature, long stratification, and ice disappearance. One of the best tools to predict these effects on lakes is numerical modeling of lakes that benefit from climate modeling. Climate modeling is normally done globally or in the so‐called general circulation model (GCM) or more detailed simulations on regional levels (RCM) like the CORDEX data set. In this study, we used the CORDEX data, which employed several climate models from several regions (domains) for several climatic scenarios (emissions scenarios) to force multiple lake models. This approach gave us an extensive prediction about various possible outputs. We applied this approach to Lake Sevan (Armenia), a large mountain lake. Our study predicted for the worst‐case scenario, an increase of the surface temperature by almost 4.3 K by the end of the 21st century, 1.75 K for bottom temperature, a total disappearance of ice cover, and about 55 extra days of stratification, showing its vulnerability for climate change. This optimized workflow uses the strength of a wide variety of models on the climate and lake levels to better understand the impact of climate change and quantify the sources of uncertainty in the workflow. Key Points Dual multi‐model ensemble of climate data and lake models is used for robust projections of climate change impacts Variance decomposition effectively identified the sources of uncertainty and contributions of different models to the overall uncertainty Significant warming, longer stratification periods, and loss of ice cover are predicted for Lake Sevan by the end of the 21st century