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"Monte Carlo method"
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Riemann manifold Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods
The paper proposes Metropolis adjusted Langevin and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling methods defined on the Riemann manifold to resolve the shortcomings of existing Monte Carlo algorithms when sampling from target densities that may be high dimensional and exhibit strong correlations. The methods provide fully automated adaptation mechanisms that circumvent the costly pilot runs that are required to tune proposal densities for Metropolis-Hastings or indeed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithms. This allows for highly efficient sampling even in very high dimensions where different scalings may be required for the transient and stationary phases of the Markov chain. The methodology proposed exploits the Riemann geometry of the parameter space of statistical models and thus automatically adapts to the local structure when simulating paths across this manifold, providing highly efficient convergence and exploration of the target density. The performance of these Riemann manifold Monte Carlo methods is rigorously assessed by performing inference on logistic regression models, log-Gaussian Cox point processes, stochastic volatility models and Bayesian estimation of dynamic systems described by non-linear differential equations. Substantial improvements in the time-normalized effective sample size are reported when compared with alternative sampling approaches. MATLAB code that is available from http://www.ucl.ac.uk/statistics/research/rmhmc allows replication of all the results reported.
Journal Article
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods have emerged as the two main tools to sample from high dimensional probability distributions. Although asymptotic convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms is ensured under weak assumptions, the performance of these algorithms is unreliable when the proposal distributions that are used to explore the space are poorly chosen and/or if highly correlated variables are updated independently. We show here how it is possible to build efficient high dimensional proposal distributions by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This allows us not only to improve over standard Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes but also to make Bayesian inference feasible for a large class of statistical models where this was not previously so. We demonstrate these algorithms on a non-linear state space model and a Lévy-driven stochastic volatility model.
Journal Article
Monte Carlo simulation with applications to finance
\"Preface This book can serve as the text for a one-semester course on Monte Carlo simulation. The intended audience is advanced undergraduate students or students on master's programs who wish to learn the basics of this exciting topic and its applications to finance. The book is largely self-contained. The only prerequisite is some experience with probability and statistics. Prior knowledge on option pricing is helpful but not essential. As in any study of Monte Carlo simulation, coding is an integral part and cannot be ignored. The book contains a large number of MATLAB coding exercises. They are designed in a progressive manner so that no prior experience with MATLAB is required. Much of the mathematics in the book is informal. For example, randomvariables are simply defined to be functions on the sample space, even though they should be measurable with respect to appropriate algebras; exchanging the order of integrations is carried out liberally, even though it should be justified by the Tonelli-Fubini Theorem. The motivation for doing so is to avoid the technical measure theoretic jargon, which is of little concern in practice and does not help much to further the understanding of the topic. The book is an extension of the lecture notes that I have developed for an undergraduate course on Monte Carlo simulation at Brown University. I would like to thank the students who have taken the course, as well as the Division of Applied Mathematics at Brown, for their support. Hui Wang Providence, Rhode Island January, 2012\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
A Molecular Dynamics Simulation for Thermal Activation Process in Covalent Bond Dissociation of a Crosslinked Thermosetting Polymer
A novel algorithm for covalent bond dissociation is developed to accurately predict fracture behavior of thermosetting polymers via molecular dynamics simulation. This algorithm is based on the Monte Carlo method that considers the difference in local strain and bond-dissociation energies to reproduce a thermally activated process in a covalent bond dissociation. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of this algorithm in predicting the stress–strain relationship of fully crosslinked thermosetting polymers under uniaxial tensile conditions. Our results indicate that the bond-dissociation energy plays an important role in reproducing the brittle fracture behavior of a thermosetting polymer by affecting the number of covalent bonds that are dissociated simultaneously.
Journal Article
Building algorithmic trading systems : a trader's journey from data mining to Monte Carlo simulation to live trading
\"Award-winning trader Kevin Davey explains how he evolved from a discretionary to a systems trader and began generating triple-digit annual returns. An inveterate systems developer, Davey explains the process of generating a trading idea, validating the idea through statistical analysis, setting entry and exit points, testing, and implementation in the market. Along the way, Davey provides insightful tips culled from his many years of successful trading. He emphasizes the importance of identifying the maximum loss a system is likely to produce and to understand that the higher the returns on a system, the higher the maximum loss. To smooth returns and minimize risk, Davey recommends that a trader utilize more than one system. He provides rules for increasing or decreasing allocation to a system and rules for when to abandon a system. As market patterns change and system performance changes and systems that performed spectacularly in the past may perform poorly going forward. The key for traders is to continue to develop systems in response to markets evolving statistical tendencies and to spread risk among different systems. An associated website will provide spreadsheets and other tools that will enable a reader to automate and test their own trading ideas.Readers will learn:- The systems Davey used to generate triple-digit returns in the World Cup Trading Championships- How to develop an algorithmic approach for around any trading idea, from very simple to the most complex using off-the-shelf software or popular trading platforms.- How to test a system using historical and current market data- How to mine market data for statistical tendencies that may form the basis of a new systemDavey struggled as a trader until he developed an algorithmic approach. In this book, he shows traders how to do the same\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo brings together the major advances that have occurred in recent years while incorporating enough introductory material for new users of MCMC. Along with thorough coverage of the theoretical foundations and algorithmic and computational methodology, this comprehensive handbook includes substantial realistic case studies from a variety of disciplines. These case studies demonstrate the application of MCMC methods and serve as a series of templates for the construction, implementation, and choice of MCMC methodology.
eBook
Sequential Monte Carlo samplers
We propose a methodology to sample sequentially from a sequence of probability distributions that are defined on a common space, each distribution being known up to a normalizing constant. These probability distributions are approximated by a cloud of weighted random samples which are propagated over time by using sequential Monte Carlo methods. This methodology allows us to derive simple algorithms to make parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms interact to perform global optimization and sequential Bayesian estimation and to compute ratios of normalizing constants. We illustrate these algorithms for various integration tasks arising in the context of Bayesian inference.
Journal Article
Theoretical guarantees for approximate sampling from smooth and log-concave densities
Sampling from various kinds of distribution is an issue of paramount importance in statistics since it is often the key ingredient for constructing estimators, test procedures or confidence intervals. In many situations, exact sampling from a given distribution is impossible or computationally expensive and, therefore, one needs to resort to approximate sampling strategies. However, there is no well-developed theory providing meaningful non-asymptotic guarantees for the approximate sampling procedures, especially in high dimensional problems. The paper makes some progress in this direction by considering the problem of sampling from a distribution having a smooth and log-concave density defined on ℝρ, for some integer P>0. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the error of approximating the target distribution by the distribution obtained by the Langevin Monte Carlo method and its variants. We illustrate the effectiveness of the established guarantees with various experiments. Underlying our analysis are insights from the theory of continuous time diffusion processes, which may be of interest beyond the framework of log-concave densities that are considered in the present work.
Journal Article