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Background Patients With Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Have Higher Mortality Than Matched Background Populations. We Compare Relative and Excess Mortality in MS Over the Matched Background Populations Between Primary Progressive MS (PPMS), relapsing Onset MS (ROMS), and Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS). Methods We included all patients from the nationwide and complete Danish MS Registry with onset 1994–2022 and compared the extra mortality of the MS phenotypes in terms of relative and excess mortality, with adjustment for sex, age at onset, disease‐modifying treatment, and number of recorded relapses. We calculated the adjusted ratios of relative and excess mortalities between PPMS and ROMS and between PPMS and SPMS. Results The initial course was unknown in 221, leaving 1412 cases with PPMS (which includes progressive relapsing MS) and 12,449 cases with ROMS. 627 had died during follow‐up by the end of 2022. After adjustment, both ratios between PPMS and ROMS came close to unity, indicating that the excess mortality is equal for PPMS and ROMS in the long run. The adjusted relative and additive mortalities were factors 6.05 (95% CI 4.42–8.27) and 1.90 (95% CI 1.65–2.18) higher in SPMS than in PPMS. Conclusions Compared with the matched population, the adjusted relative and excess mortalities are the same for PPMS and ROMS. However, SPMS had a higher relative and excess mortality than PPMS, probably in part owing to the burden of disease carried over from the pre‐progressive phase. This underlines the need for effective treatment in this later stage of the disease and more attention to comorbidity.

ObjectiveSurvival and causes of death (COD) in multiple sclerosis (MS) provide ultimate endpoints. We aimed to investigate survival and COD in a 60-year population-based MS cohort compared with the general population.MethodsAll patients with incident multiple sclerosis (MS) (N=1388) with onset during 1953–2012 in Hordaland County, Western Norway, were included. Data were obtained from patient records at Haukeland University Hospital and linked to the Norwegian COD registry. Survival adjusted for sex, age and disease course were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses from birth and from disease onset. Mortality and COD in MS relative to the general population were examined by standardised mortality ratio (SMR).ResultsOf 1388 patients, 291 had deceased, mainly of MS (56.4%). Median life expectancy was 74.7 years for MS and 81.8 years for the general population (p<0.001); 77.2 years for women with MS and 72.2 years for men with MS (p<0.001). Life expectancy for patients with relapsing remitting MS (RRMS) was 77.8 years and ­71.4 years for primary progressive MS (PPMS) (p<0.001). Overall SMR was 2.7 (p>0.0001); 2.9 in women and 2.5 in men (p=0.0009). SMR was 2.4 in RRMS and 3.9 in PPMS (p<0.0001). SMR from disease onset during 1953–1974 was 3.1; 2.6 during 1975–1996 and 0.7 during 1997–2012 (p<0.0083). No difference in cause-specific deaths were found (p=0.0871).ConclusionWe found a 7-year shorter life expectancy and almost threefold higher mortality in MS compared with the general population. A rise in survival in MS was observed during the entire observation period.

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is a viable option for treatment of aggressive multiple sclerosis (MS). No randomised controlled trial has been performed, and thus, experiences from systematic and sustained follow-up of treated patients constitute important information about safety and efficacy. In this observational study, we describe the characteristics and outcome of the Swedish patients treated with HSCT for MS. Neurologists from the major hospitals in Sweden filled out a follow-up form with prospectively collected data. Fifty-two patients were identified in total; 48 were included in the study and evaluated for safety and side effects; 41 patients had at least 1 year of follow-up and were further analysed for clinical and radiological outcome. In this cohort, 34 patients (83%) had relapsing-remitting MS, and mean follow-up time was 47 months. At 5 years, relapse-free survival was 87%; MRI event-free survival 85%; expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score progression-free survival 77%; and disease-free survival (no relapses, no new MRI lesions and no EDSS progression) 68%. Presence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions prior to HSCT was associated with a favourable outcome (disease-free survival 79% vs 46%, p=0.028). There was no mortality. The most common long-term side effects were herpes zoster reactivation (15%) and thyroid disease (8.4%). HSCT is a very effective treatment of inflammatory active MS and can be performed with a high degree of safety at experienced centres.

ObjectiveTo examine mortality and factors associated with survival in a population based multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort.MethodsClinical and demographic data of MS patients registered with the British Columbia MS clinics (1980–2004) were linked to provincial death data, and patients were followed until death, emigration or study end (31 December 2007). Absolute survival and the influence of patient characteristics (sex, disease course (primary progressive (PPMS) vs relapsing onset (R-MS)) and onset age) were estimated by Kaplan–Meier analyses (from birth and disease onset). Mortality relative to the general population was examined using standardised mortality ratios. Excess mortality associated with patient characteristics and time period of cohort entry was assessed by relative survival modelling.ResultsOf 6917 patients, 1025 died. Median survival age was 78.6 years (95% CI 77.5 to 79.7) for women and 74.3 years (95% CI 73.1 to 75.4) for men. Survival from onset was longer for R-MS (49.7 years; 95% CI 47.9 to 51.5) than for PPMS (32.5 years; 95% CI 29.5 to 35.7); however, survival age was similar. The overall standardised mortality ratios was 2.89 (95% CI 2.71 to 3.07), and patients survived approximately 6 years less than expected, relative to the general population. PPMS had a higher relative mortality risk compared with R-MS (relative mortality ratio (RMR) 1.52; 95% CI 1.30 to 1.80). Women with PPMS had a relative survival disadvantage compared with men with PPMS (RMR 1.55; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.01). Relative survival within 10 years of cohort entry was similar between time periods.ConclusionsSome of the longest MS survival times are reported here but the risk of death was still greater than in the age, sex and calendar year matched general population. No evidence of increased survival over time was found when improved survival in the general population was taken into consideration.

BackgroundEvidence for efficacy of disease-modifying drugs in multiple sclerosis (MS) comes from trials of short duration. We report results from a 16 y, retrospective follow-up of the pivotal interferon β-1b (IFNB-1b) study.MethodsThe 372 trial patients were randomly assigned to placebo (n=123), IFNB-1b 50 μg (n=125) or IFNB-1b 250 μg (n=124) subcutaneously every other day for at least 2 y. Some remained randomised for up to 5 y but, subsequently, patients received treatment according to physicians' discretion. Patients were re-contacted and asked to participate. Efficacy related measures included MRI parameters, relapse rate, the Expanded Disability Status Scale, the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite Measure and conversion to secondary progressive MS.ResultsOf the 88.2% (328/372) of patients who were identified, 69.9% (260/372) had available case report forms. No differences in outcome between original randomisation groups could be discerned using standard disability and MRI measures. However, mortality rates among patients originally treated with IFNB-1b were lower than in the original placebo group (18.3% (20/109) for placebo versus 8.3% (9/108) for IFNB-1b 50 μg and 5.4% (6/111) for IFNB-1b 250 μg).ConclusionsThe original treatment assignment could not be shown to influence standard assessments of long-term efficacy. On-study behaviour of patients was influenced by factors that could not be controlled with the sacrifice of randomisation and blinding. Mortality was higher in patients originally assigned to placebo than those who had received IFNB-1b 50 μg or 250 μg. The dataset provides important resources to explore early predictors of long-term outcome.

Multiple sclerosis is the most common inflammatory neurological disease in young adults. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic method of quantifying various effects of a given condition by demographic variables and geography. In this systematic analysis, we quantified the global burden of multiple sclerosis and its relationship with country development level. We assessed the epidemiology of multiple sclerosis from 1990 to 2016. Epidemiological outcomes for multiple sclerosis were modelled with DisMod-MR version 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression framework widely used in GBD epidemiological modelling. Assessment of multiple sclerosis as the cause of death was based on 13 110 site-years of vital registration data analysed in the GBD's cause of death ensemble modelling module, which is designed to choose the optimum combination of mathematical models and predictive covariates based on out-of-sample predictive validity testing. Data on prevalence and deaths are summarised in the indicator, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), which was calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with a disability. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a composite indicator of income per person, years of education, and fertility, to assess relations with development level. In 2016, there were 2 221 188 prevalent cases of multiple sclerosis (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 033 866–2 436 858) globally, which corresponded to a 10·4% (9·1 to 11·8) increase in the age-standardised prevalence since 1990. The highest age-standardised multiple sclerosis prevalence estimates per 100 000 population were in high-income North America (164·6, 95% UI, 153·2 to 177·1), western Europe (127·0, 115·4 to 139·6), and Australasia (91·1, 81·5 to 101·7), and the lowest were in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (3·3, 2·9–3·8), central sub-Saharan African (2·8, 2·4 to 3·1), and Oceania (2·0, 1·71 to 2·29). There were 18 932 deaths due to multiple sclerosis (95% UI 16 577 to 21 033) and 1 151 478 DALYs (968 605 to 1 345 776) due to multiple sclerosis in 2016. Globally, age-standardised death rates decreased significantly (change −11·5%, 95% UI −35·4 to −4·7), whereas the change in age-standardised DALYs was not significant (−4·2%, −16·4 to 0·8). YLLs due to premature death were greatest in the sixth decade of life (22·05, 95% UI 19·08 to 25·34). Changes in age-standardised DALYs assessed with the Socio-demographic Index between 1990 and 2016 were variable. Multiple sclerosis is not common but is a potentially severe cause of neurological disability throughout adult life. Prevalence has increased substantially in many regions since 1990. These findings will be useful for resource allocation and planning in health services. Many regions worldwide have few or no epidemiological data on multiple sclerosis, and more studies are needed to make more accurate estimates. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Background: Over recent years numerous patients with severe forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) refractory to conventional therapies have been treated with intense immunosuppression followed by autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT). The clinical outcome and the toxicity of AHSCT can be diverse, depending on the various types of conditioning protocols and on the disease phase. Objectives: To report the Italian experience on all the consecutive patients with MS treated with AHSCT with an intermediate intensity conditioning regimen, named BEAM/ATG, in the period from 1996 to 2008. Methods: Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging outcomes of 74 patients were collected after a median follow-up period of 48.3 (range = 0.8–126) months. Results: Two patients (2.7%) died from transplant-related causes. After 5 years, 66% of patients remained stable or improved. Among patients with a follow-up longer than 1 year, eight out of 25 subjects with a relapsing–remitting course (31%) had a 6–12 months confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale improvement > 1 point after AHSCT as compared with one out of 36 (3%) patients with a secondary progressive disease course (p = 0.009). Among the 18 cases with a follow-up longer than 7 years, eight (44%) remained stable or had a sustained improvement while 10 (56%), after an initial period of stabilization or improvement with median duration of 3.5 years, showed a slow disability progression. Conclusions: This study shows that AHSCT with a BEAM/ATG conditioning regimen has a sustained effect in suppressing disease progression in aggressive MS cases unresponsive to conventional therapies. It can also cause a sustained clinical improvement, especially if treated subjects are still in the relapsing–remitting phase of the disease.

Serum neurofilament light chain (NfL) is emerging as an important biomarker in multiple sclerosis (MS). Our objective was to evaluate the prognostic value of serum NfL levels obtained close to the time of MS onset with long-term clinical outcomes. In this prospective cohort study, we identified patients with serum collected within 5 years of first MS symptom onset (baseline) with more than 15 years of routine clinical follow-up. Levels of serum NfL were quantified in patients and matched controls using digital immunoassay (SiMoA HD-1 Analyzer, Quanterix). Sixty-seven patients had a median follow-up of 18.9 years (range 15.0–27.0). The median serum NfL level in patient baseline samples was 10.1 pg/mL, 38.5% higher than median levels in 37 controls (7.26 pg/mL, p  = 0.004). Baseline NfL level was most helpful as a sensitive predictive marker to rule out progression; patients with levels less 7.62 pg/mL were 4.3 times less likely to develop an EDSS score of ≥ 4 ( p  = 0.001) and 7.1 times less likely to develop progressive MS ( p  = 0.054). Patients with the highest NfL levels (3rd-tertile, > 13.2 pg/mL) progressed most rapidly with an EDSS annual rate of 0.16 ( p  = 0.004), remaining significant after adjustment for sex, age, and disease-modifying treatment ( p  = 0.022). This study demonstrates that baseline sNfL is associated with long term clinical disease progression. sNfL may be a sensitive marker of subsequent poor clinical outcomes.

In 2016, the Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Multiple Sclerosis (MAGNIMS) network proposed modifications to the MRI criteria to define dissemination in space (DIS) and time (DIT) for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS). Changes to the DIS definition included removal of the distinction between symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions, increasing the number of lesions needed to define periventricular involvement to three, combining cortical and juxtacortical lesions, and inclusion of optic nerve evaluation. For DIT, removal of the distinction between symptomatic and asymptomatic lesions was suggested. We compared the performance of the 2010 McDonald and 2016 MAGNIMS criteria for multiple sclerosis diagnosis in a large multicentre cohort of patients with CIS to provide evidence to guide revisions of multiple sclerosis diagnostic criteria. Brain and spinal cord MRI and optic nerve assessments from patients with typical CIS suggestive of multiple sclerosis done less than 3 months from clinical onset in eight European multiple sclerosis centres were included in this retrospective study. Eligible patients were 16–60 years, and had a first CIS suggestive of CNS demyelination and typical of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, a complete neurological examination, a baseline brain and spinal cord MRI scan obtained less than 3 months from clinical onset, and a follow-up brain scan obtained less than 12 months from CIS onset. We recorded occurrence of a second clinical attack (clinically definite multiple sclerosis) at months 36 and 60. We evaluated MRI criteria performance for DIS, DIT, and DIS plus DIT with a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Between June 16, 1995, and Jan 27, 2017, 571 patients with CIS were screened, of whom 368 met all study inclusion criteria. At the last evaluation (median 50·0 months [IQR 27·0–78·4]), 189 (51%) of 368 patients developed clinically definite multiple sclerosis. At 36 months, the two DIS criteria showed high sensitivity (2010 McDonald 0·91 [95% CI 0·85–0·94] and 2016 MAGNIMS 0·93 [0·88–0·96]), similar specificity (0·33 [0·25–0·42] and 0·32 [0·24–0·41]), and similar area under the curve values (AUC; 0·62 [0·57–0·67] and 0·63 [0·58–0·67]). Performance was not affected by inclusion of symptomatic lesions (sensitivity 0·92 [0·87–0·96], specificity 0·31 [0·23–0·40], AUC 0·62 [0·57–0·66]) or cortical lesions (sensitivity 0·92 [0·87–0·95], specificity 0·32 [0·24–0·41], AUC 0·62 [0·57–0·67]). Requirement of three periventricular lesions resulted in slightly lower sensitivity (0·85 [0·78–0·90], slightly higher specificity (0·40 [0·32–0·50], and similar AUC (0·63 [0·57–0·68]). Inclusion of optic nerve evaluation resulted in similar sensitivity (0·92 [0·87–0·96]), and slightly lower specificity (0·26 [0·18–0·34]) and AUC (0·59 [0·55–0·64]). AUC values were also similar for DIT (2010 McDonald 0·61 [0·55–0·67] and 2016 MAGNIMS 0·61 [0·55–0·66]) and DIS plus DIT (0·62 [0·56–0·67] and 0·64 [0·58–0·69]). The 2016 MAGNIMS criteria showed similar accuracy to the 2010 McDonald criteria in predicting the development of clinically definite multiple sclerosis. Inclusion of symptomatic lesions is expected to simplify the clinical use of MRI criteria without reducing accuracy, and our findings suggest that needing three lesions to define periventricular involvement might slightly increase specificity, suggesting that these two factors could be considered during further revisions of multiple sclerosis diagnostic criteria. UK MS Society, National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Dutch MS Research Foundation.

To report the 5-year risk and to identify risk factors for the development of a seminal acute or progressive clinical event in a multi-national cohort of asymptomatic subjects meeting 2009 RIS Criteria. Retrospectively identified RIS subjects from 22 databases within 5 countries were evaluated. Time to the first clinical event related to demyelination (acute or 12-month progression of neurological deficits) was compared across different groups by univariate and multivariate analyses utilizing a Cox regression model. Data were available in 451 RIS subjects (F: 354 (78.5%)). The mean age at from the time of the first brain MRI revealing anomalies suggestive of MS was 37.2 years (y) (median: 37.1 y, range: 11-74 y) with mean clinical follow-up time of 4.4 y (median: 2.8 y, range: 0.01-21.1 y). Clinical events were identified in 34% (standard error=3%) of individuals within a 5-year period from the first brain MRI study. Of those who developed symptoms, 9.6% fulfilled criteria for primary progressive MS. In the multivariate model, age [hazard ratio (HR): 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-0.99); p=0.03], sex (male) [HR: 1.93 (1.24-2.99); p=0.004], and lesions within the cervical or thoracic spinal cord [HR: 3.08 (2.06-4.62); p=<0.001] were identified as significant predictors for the development of a first clinical event. These data provide supportive evidence that a meaningful number of RIS subjects evolve to a first clinical symptom. An age <37 y, male sex, and spinal cord involvement appear to be the most important independent predictors of symptom onset.