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Measuring the real size of the world economy
The International Comparison Program (ICP) has become not only the largest international statistical program in the world, but also the most complex. In the years leading up to 2005, six rounds of the ICP were conducted, each with more countries and each with improved methodology. This volume is a comprehensive review of the statistical theory and methods underlying the estimation of purchasing power parities (PPPs) and real expenditures, the choices made for the 2005 ICP round, and the lessons learned that led to improvements in the 2011 ICP. Disclosing the theory, concepts, and methods underlying estimates enhances the transparency of the 2011 ICP process. This book describes the challenges faced by the 2005 round of the ICP, the new theories and methods developed to address those problems, and the lessons learned that can be applied to future rounds of the ICP. The book refers to six geographic regions of the world. This volume also contains several chapters about uses of the data from the 2005 ICP. These uses are significant because they expand the boundaries of the needs served by the ICP to encompass poverty estimation and analysis of the global economic situation.
eBook
On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method (PDF Download)
Statistical offices have often recourse to benchmarking methods for compiling quarterly national accounts (QNA). Benchmarking methods employ quarterly indicator series (i) to distribute annual, more reliable series of national accounts and (ii) to extrapolate the most recent quarters not yet covered by annual benchmarks. The Proportional First Differences (PFD) benchmarking method proposed by Denton (1971) is a widely used solution for distribution, but in extrapolation it may suffer when the movements in the indicator series do not match consistently the movements in the target annual benchmarks. For this reason, an enhanced formula for extrapolation was recommended by the IMF's Quarterly National Accounts Manual: Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation (2001). We discuss the rationale behind this technique, and propose a matrix formulation of it. In addition, we present applications of the enhanced formula to artificial and real-life benchmarking examples showing how the extrapolations for the most recent quarters can be improved.
eBook
Measuring Inequality
What do we mean by inequality comparisons? If the rich just get richer and the poor get poorer, the answer might seem easy. But what if the income distribution changes in a complicated way? Can we use mathematical or statistical techniques to simplify the comparison problem in a way that has economic meaning? What does it mean to measure inequality? Is it similar to National Income? Or price index? Is it enough just to work out the Gini coefficient? This book tackles these questions and examines the underlying principles of inequality measurement and its relation to welfare economics, distributional analysis, and information theory. The book covers modern theoretical developments in inequality analysis, as well as showing how the way we think about inequality today has been shaped by classic contributions in economics and related disciplines. Formal results and detailed literature discussion are provided in two appendices. The principal points are illustrated in the main text, using examples from US and UK data, as well as other data sources, and associated web materials provide hands-on learning.
eBook
Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income, and Productivity
Economists have long recognized that changes in the quality of existing goods and services, along with the introduction of new goods and services, can raise grave difficulties in measuring changes in the real output of the economy. But despite the attention to this subject in the professional literature, there remains insufficient understanding of just how imperfect the existing official estimates actually are. After studying the methods used by the US government statistical agencies as well as the extensive previous academic literature on this subject, I have concluded that, despite the various improvements to statistical methods that have been made through the years, the official data understate the changes of real output and productivity. The official measures provide at best a lower bound on the true real growth rate with no indication of the size of the underestimation. In this essay, I briefly review why national income should not be considered a measure of well-being; describe what government statisticians actually do in their attempt to measure improvements in the quality of goods and services; consider the problem of new products and the various attempts by economists to take new products into account in measuring overall price and output changes; and discuss how the mismeasurement of real output and of prices might be taken into account in considering various questions of economic policy.
Journal Article
Life expectancy and health care spending in South Asia: An econometric analysis
Affordable health care is often a result of increased government spending on the health sector. Out-of-pocket expenses remain the primary health care funding source in many South Asian nations. Lack of adequate public funding for health services, difficulty in obtaining health insurance, and high out-of-pocket costs can result in indebtedness, reductions in actual consumption, and decreased access to health care services. The study examines life expectancy and health care spending in South Asian countries. The life expectancy of South Asian countries is studied as a health outcome in relation to health care spending, gross national income per capita, and expected years of schooling. This study is based on secondary data from World Bank statistics that covers eight South Asian countries from 2000 to 2021, for a total of 176 pooled time series and cross-sectional observations. The data were analysed using econometric models, including the cross sectional dependency test, panel unit root test, panel co-integration test, vector error correction model, pair-wise Granger causality test, and Wald test statistics. The vector error correction model results indicate that health care spending, anticipated years of schooling, and gross national income per capita have a long-run association with health outcomes. Health care spending, per capita gross national income, and expected years of education have all greatly enhanced life expectancy in South Asian countries. An effective health strategy is necessary to increase people’s healthy life expectancy and well-being. To accomplish this, government may need to promote school enrolment to help people become more health literate and aware of their health outcomes. As a result, persons with more years of schooling have better health, higher levels of well-being, healthier habits, and ultimately, a longer life expectancy. This study will provide an important insight to policymakers in improving health outcomes through targeted and sustained health care spending in South Asia.
Journal Article
Audit Culture
All aspects of our work and private lives are increasingly measured and managed. But how has this 'audit culture' arisen and what kind of a world is it producing?
Cris Shore and Susan Wright provide a timely account of the rise of the new industries of accounting, enumeration and ranking from an anthropological perspective, drawing on political economy, ethnographic observation and genealogical excavation.
Audit Culture is the first book to systematically document and analyse these phenomena and their implications for democracy.
The book explores how audit culture operates across a wide range of fields, including health, higher education, NGOs, finance, the automobile industry and the military. The authors build a powerful critique of contemporary public sector management in an age of neoliberal market-making, privatisation and outsourcing. They conclude by offering a raft of suggested actions to reverse its damaging effects on communities, reclaim professional autonomy, and restore the democratic accountability that audit culture is systematically undermining.
eBook
DETERMINING THE NUMBER OF FACTORS FROM EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF EIGENVALUES
We develop a new estimator of the number of factors in the approximate factor models. The estimator works well even when the idiosyncratic terms are substantially correlated. It is based on the fact, established in the paper, that any finite number of the largest \"idiosyncratic\" eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix cluster around a single point. In contrast, all the \"systematic\" eigenvalues, the number of which equals the number of factors, diverge to infinity. The estimator consistently separates the diverging eigenvalues from the cluster and counts the number of the separated eigenvalues. We consider a macroeconomic and a financial application.
Journal Article