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Crashes, crises, and calamities : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs
Why do certain civilizations, societies, and ecosystems collapse? How does the domino effect relate to the credit crunch? When can mathematics help explain marriage? And how on earth do toads predict earthquakes? The future is uncertain. But science can help foretell what lies ahead.Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics,Crashes, Crises, and Calamitiesoffers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories. In accessible prose, Len Fisher demonstrates how we can foresee and manage events that might otherwise catch us by surprise.At the cutting edge of science, Fisher helps us find ways to act before a full-fledged catastrophe is upon us.Crashes, Crises, and Calamitiesis a witty and informative exploration of the chaos, complexity, and patterns of our daily lives.
eBook
Megadisasters
Can we predict cataclysmic disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, or stock market crashes? The Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 claimed more than 200,000 lives. Hurricane Katrina killed over 1,800 people and devastated the city of New Orleans. The recent global financial crisis has cost corporations and ordinary people around the world billions of dollars.Megadisastersis a book that asks why catastrophes such as these catch us by surprise, and reveals the history and groundbreaking science behind efforts to forecast major disasters and minimize their destruction.
Each chapter of this exciting and eye-opening book explores a particular type of cataclysmic event and the research surrounding it, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, rapid climate change, collisions with asteroids or comets, pandemics, and financial crashes. Florin Diacu tells the harrowing true stories of people impacted by these terrible events, and of the scientists racing against time to predict when the next big disaster will strike. He describes the mathematical models that are so critical to understanding the laws of nature and foretelling potentially lethal phenomena, the history of modeling and its prospects for success in the future, and the enormous challenges to scientific prediction posed by the chaos phenomenon, which is the high instability that underlies many processes around us.
Yielding new insights into the perils that can touch every one of us,Megadisastersshows how the science of predicting disasters holds the promise of a safer and brighter tomorrow.
eBook
Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes
\"Since 1980, the number of climate-related disasters has been greatly increased glocally. Scientific consensus based on the IPCC fifth report suggested that global warming would bring more intense and frequent extreme climate events. These climate-related disasters hinder the achievement of sustainable economic growth and prosperity by disrupting supply chains, impeding production, destroying infrastructure, and necessitating high-cost rebuilding and recovery. To mitigate the climate extreme risks and possible losses, it is essential to maximize the utilization of scientific outputs and to share best practices in disaster risk management. Aligned with such purposes, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC) hosts the APEC Climate Symposium (APCS) every year. APCS focused on drought predction and management in 2013, climate extremes and hydrological disaster in 2014, and efficient use of climate information for disaster risk management in 2015. This book aims to compile some of the important results from the latest research in climate extreme prediction and services and its application studies with a focus on climate extremes such as typhoons, droughts, and floods based on the APCS presentations during 2013-2015\"-- Page 4 of cover.
Book
Frontiers of Engineering
This volume presents papers on the topics covered at the National Academy of Engineering's 2015 US Frontiers of Engineering Symposium. Every year the symposium brings together 100 outstanding young leaders in engineering to share their cutting-edge research and innovations in selected areas. The 2015 symposium was held September 9-11 at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman center in Irvine, California. The intent of this book is to highlight innovative developments in engineering research and technical work.
eBook
Cascadia's fault : the deadly earthquake that will devastate North America
Explains that a major earthquake and resulting tsunamis are likely to occur off the Pacific Northwest coast any time within the next two hundred years, arguing that the effects of the disaster will be far worse than the damage from the 2004 Sumatran quake and tsunamis.
Book
When Weather Matters: Science and Service to Meet Critical Societal Needs
The goal of weather prediction is to provide information people and organizations can use to reduce weather-related losses and enhance societal benefits, including protection of life and property, public health and safety, and support of economic prosperity and quality of life. In economic terms, the benefit of the investment in public weather forecasts and warnings is substantial: the estimated annualized benefit is about $31.5 billion, compared to the $5.1 billion cost of generating the information. Between 1980 and 2009, 96 weather disasters in the United States each caused at least $1 billion in damages, with total losses exceeding $700 billion. Between 1999 and 2008, there were an average of 629 direct weather fatalities per year. The annual impacts of adverse weather on the national highway system and roads are staggering: 1.5 million weather-related crashes with 7,400 deaths, more than 700,000 injuries, and $42 billion in economic losses.
Book
Fragile futures : the uncertain economics of disasters, pandemics, and climate change
\"This book revisits a distinction introduced in 1921 by economists Frank Knight and John Maynard Keynes: that between statistically predictable future events (\"risks\") and statistically unpredictable, uncertain events (\"uncertainties\"). Governments have generally ignored the latter, perceiving phenomena such as pandemics, natural disasters, and climate change as uncontrollable Acts of God. As a result, there has been little if any preparation for future catastrophes. Our modern society is more interconnected and more globalized than ever. Dealing with uncertain future events requires a stronger and more globally coordinated government response. This book suggests a larger, more global government role in dealing with these disasters and keeping economic inequalities low. Major institutional changes, such as regulating the private sector for the common good and dealing with special harms, risks and crises, especially those concerning climate change and pandemics, are necessary in order to achieve any semblance of future progress for humankind\"-- Provided by publisher.
Book
Leveraging machine learning algorithms for improved disaster preparedness and response through accurate weather pattern and natural disaster prediction
Globally, communities and governments face growing challenges from an increase in natural disasters and worsening weather extremes. Precision in disaster preparation is crucial in responding to these issues. The revolutionary influence that machine learning algorithms have in strengthening catastrophe preparation and response systems is thoroughly explored in this paper. Beyond a basic summary, the findings of our study are striking and demonstrate the sophisticated powers of machine learning in forecasting a variety of weather patterns and anticipating a range of natural catastrophes, including heat waves, droughts, floods, hurricanes, and more. We get practical insights into the complexities of machine learning applications, which support the enhanced effectiveness of predictive models in disaster preparedness. The paper not only explains the theoretical foundations but also presents practical proof of the significant benefits that machine learning algorithms provide. As a result, our results open the door for governments, businesses, and people to make wise decisions. These accurate predictions of natural catastrophes and emerging weather patterns may be used to implement pre-emptive actions, eventually saving lives and reducing the severity of the damage.
Journal Article