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Events of non-natural mortality in human-dominated landscapes are especially challenging for populations of large vertebrates with K strategies. Among birds, vultures are one of the most threatened groups experiencing sharp population declines due to non-natural mortality. Factors causing non-natural mortality are usually studied separately. However, the potential use of an integrated index able to predict large-scale mortality risks of avian scavengers could be especially useful for planning conservation strategies. Here, we used the Human Footprint index to examine the impact of landscape anthropization on the survival rates of 66 GPS-tagged adult Eurasian griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus) in two Spanish regions. Foraging in more anthropized areas resulted in a significantly higher individual mortality risk mainly due to collisions with vehicles, poisonings, electrocutions and fatalities with wind turbines. Mean yearly survival rates were estimated at 0.817 ± 0.043 SE and 0.968 ± 0.018 SE for individuals from the more and less anthropized regions, respectively. Additional research should investigate whether some vulture populations could be acting as sinks unnoticed due to metapopulation dynamics. From a broader point of view, our study shows that a straightforward Human Footprint was a useful index to predict the survival of top scavengers and can be highly applicable to planning large-scale conservation measures.

The objectives of this study were to determine the rates of natural mortality (M), fishing mortality (F), total mortality (Z), the exploitation rates (E), as well as the biological reference points (BRPs) and the annual removal rates (R) of the crocodile shark, Pseudocarcharias kamoharai, in the Ecuadorian Pacific. Thirty similar and different models were applied to determine all these rates. These equations were obtained from studies on teleost and chondrichthyan fish. The biological parameters, including age, growth, longevity, and reproduction, were obtained from the specialized literature based on the biology of P. kamoharai in Ecuadorian waters. These biological parameters were used in all the models considered here. The M estimations were 0.14 to 0.28 based on six models for chondrichthyans and osteichthyes. These values were similar to the six algorithms designed for cartilaginous fish, ranging from 0.16 to 0.35; for this reason, these mortality rates were considered low. The Z values ranged from 0.08 to 0.51; however, they were not considered given that the three estimations were less than M, and only the Z = 0.51 was considered. Given that Z = 0.51 and M = 0.24, an F = 0.27 was obtained by subtraction, indicating a low mortality by fishing. E had values between 0.21 and 0.53, which indicated overexploitation that exceeded the Eopt = 0.50 value. The obtained BRPs were Fopt = 0.10 and 0.12 and Flim = 0.16, which showed that the optimal fishing levels (best possible capture) to achieve long-term sustainable exploitation of the stock encompass 10 to 16% of the fishing effort applied for this species. However, the F surpassed this prudential range. The annual removal percentage (R = 21%) demonstrated that 21% of the population was being removed. Based on the biology and ecology of this species, all models applied in this study showed that P. kamoharai had low natural and fishing mortality rates and moderate total mortality; its exploitation rate exceeded the fishing limits. These values and their life history traits indicated that this shark species cannot tolerate any fishing level without threatening its populations.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of the intensive commercial jigging fishery on the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean and to estimate the exploitation status of this stock during the period 2005-2015. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical DeLury depletion model to the Chinese jigging fisheries data to estimate the stock abundance and catchability for each year, and sensitivity analysis on daily natural mortality (M) was conducted. The results indicated that M values had great impacts on the overall estimates of stock size. Initial annual population sizes varied from 66 to 662 million individuals with the M value of 0.003-0.01 per day during the study period. O. bartramii suffered from a certain degree of overexploitation in 2008. The proportional escapement values (M=0.003-0.01) were 8.94% to 19.82% in 2008, with an average of 13.74%, which may have led to a low abundance of O. bartramii and annual catch since 2009. As short-lived ecological opportunists, O. bartramii are extremely sensitive to changes in multi-scale environmental conditions, especially when anomalous environmental conditions occur, and significant between-year variations in the initial abundance resulted in O. bartramii suffering from a certain degree of overexploitation in 2010. Although the proportional escapement met the management target of 40% from 2011 to 2015, the stock size and annual catch still fluctuated at relatively low levels. Improved knowledge of the influences of environmental conditions on abundance of the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid can contribute to the sustainable management of this stock.

The role of surgery compared with reirradiation in the primary treatment of patients with resectable, locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) who have previously received radiotherapy is a matter of debate. In this trial, we compared the efficacy and safety outcomes of salvage endoscopic surgery versus intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) in patients with resectable locally recurrent NPC. This multicentre, open-label, randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial was done in three hospitals in southern China. We included patients aged 18–70 years with a Karnofsky Performance Status score of at least 70 who were histopathologically diagnosed with undifferentiated or differentiated, non-keratinising, locally recurrent NPC with tumours confined to the nasopharyngeal cavity, the post-naris or nasal septum, the superficial parapharyngeal space, or the base wall of the sphenoid sinus. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either endoscopic nasopharyngectomy (ENPG group) or IMRT (IMRT group). Randomisation was done manually using a computer-generated random number code and patients were stratified by treatment centre. Treatment group assignment was not masked. The primary endpoint was overall survival, compared between the groups at 3 years. Efficacy analyses were done by intention to treat. Safety analysis was done in patients who received treatment according to the treatment they actually received. This trial was prospectively registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR-TRC-11001573, and is currently in follow-up. Between Sept 30, 2011, and Jan 16, 2017, 200 eligible patients were randomly assigned to receive either ENPG (n=100) or IMRT (n=100). At a median follow-up of 56·0 months (IQR 42·0–69·0), 74 patients had died (29 [29%] of 100 patients in the ENPG group and 45 [45%] of 100 patients in the IMRT group). The 3-year overall survival was 85·8% (95% CI 78·9–92·7) in the ENPG group and 68·0% (58·6–77·4) in the IMRT group (hazard ratio 0·47, 95% CI 0·29–0·76; p=0·0015). The most common grade 3 or worse radiation-related late adverse event was pharyngeal mucositis (in five [5%] of 99 patients who underwent ENPG and 26 [26%] of 101 patients who underwent IMRT). Five [5%] of the 99 patients who underwent ENPG and 20 [20%] of the 101 patients who underwent IMRT died due to late toxic effects specific to radiotherapy; attribution to previous radiotherapy or trial radiotherapy is unclear due to the long-term nature of radiation-related toxicity. Endoscopic surgery significantly improved overall survival compared with IMRT in patients with resectable locally recurrent NPC. These results suggest that ENPG could be considered as the standard treatment option for this patient population, although long-term follow-up is needed to further determine the efficacy and toxicity of this strategy. Sun Yat-sen University Clinical Research 5010 Program

Scientists and resource managers need to know life history parameters (e.g., average mortality rate, individual growth rate, maximum length or mass, and timing of maturity) to understand and respond to risks to natural populations and ecosystems. For over 100 years, scientists have identified \"life history invariants\" (LHI) representing pairs of parameters whose ratio is theorized to be constant across species. LHI then promise to allow prediction of many parameters from field measurements of a few important traits. Using LHI in this way, however, neglects any residual patterns in parameters when making predictions. We therefore apply a multivariate model for eight variables (seven parameters and temperature) in over 32,000 fishes, and include taxonomic structure for residuals (with levels for class, order, family, genus, and species). We illustrate that this approach predicts variables probabilistically for taxa with many or few data. We then use this model to resolve three questions regarding life history parameters in fishes. Specifically we show that (1) on average there is a 1.24% decrease in the Brody growth coefficient for every 1% increase in maximum size; (2) the ratio of natural mortality rate and growth coefficient is not an LHI but instead varies systematically based on the timing of maturation, where movement along this life history axis is predictably correlated with species taxonomy; and (3) three variables must be known per species to precisely predict remaining life history variables. We distribute our predictive model as an R package, FishLife, to allow future life history predictions for fishes to be conditioned on taxonomy and life history data for fishes worldwide. This package also contains predictions (and predictive intervals) for mortality, maturity, size, and growth parameters for all described fishes.

We describe a fecundity-hindcast model that incorporates Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) acute toxicity data, field studies of Arctic cod larval distribution and abundance, natural mortality estimates for Arctic cod eggs and larvae, and an oil spill fate model in Alaska Beaufort Sea. Three orders of magnitude of spill events (1000, 10 000, and 100 000 tons) were evaluated for both physically and chemically dispersed oil. Using worst-case assumptions in our model, a 100 000 ton spill of crude oil treated with dispersants resulted in 266 million m3 of water that exceeded our acute toxicity threshold, compared to a volume of 71 million m3 for a 100 000 ton spill not treated with dispersants, and resulted in exposure of about 2 million Arctic cod larvae remaining from an initial 87 million eggs. This represents the reproductive output of about 7300 adult females. Adult Arctic cod populations in the Alaska Beaufort number in the tens to hundreds of millions. The results show that even with an order of magnitude variation in exposure, the effect of dispersing a large oil spill on the regional cod population is expected to be insignificant (∼0.7%). The recent hiatus in Arctic oil and gas development affords an opportunity to acquire additional data to further strengthen this conclusion.

Horse mussels are bivalves found in Kendari Bay and are frequently consumed by the people in the surrounding coastal communities. The population dynamic of this mussel species in Kendari Bay is not yet fully understood. This study aims to determine the size structure, growth, mortality, and exploitation rate of horse mussels in Kendari Bay. This research was carried out in Kendari Bay on the outskirts of Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, from January to December 2019. Horse mussel samples of all different sizes were randomly collected from different points of the area of the mussel habitat. The collected samples were counted in total, and their shell length was measured using a caliper with an accuracy of 0.05 mm. The size, growth, mortality, and exploitation rate data were analyzed using the Bhattacharya method, inverse von Bertalanffy, Pauly empirical, and length-converted catch curve accommodated in the FISAT II. The results showed that the horse mussels comprised two dominant size groups, with one dominating most of the months. The asymptotic length (Lo) of the mussels was 9.7 cm, with a growth coefficient (К) of 1.1 yr. Moreover, the growth performance index of the mussels was (@)'=2.01 yr\"!, and the maximum age (Tmax) Was 2.73 years. The generated inverse von Bertalanffy equation for the horse mussels was Lt =9.7-(9.7-0.025)e-!-!. The natural mortality (M), fishing mortality (Е), and total mortality (Z) of the horse mussels were 2.73 yr}, 1.17 yr!, and 3.90 yr\"!, respectively. The horse mussels in Kendari Bay were well within the underexploited category, with an exploitation rate of 0.30.

Small-scale fisheries play a critical role in food security and contribute to nearly half of reported global fish catches. However, the status of most small-scale fisheries stocks is still poor. In data-limited situations, length-based methods have been widely applied to estimate reference points and to understand stock status. This study applied three different length-based assessment methods (length-based indicators—LBI, length-based spawning potential ratio—LBSPR, and the length-based Bayesian biomass approach—LBB) to predict fisheries stock sustainability in the Azores. Overall, the three methods showed robustness for 15 out of 18 stocks assessed and agreed on their exploitation status. The results showed that 45% of the Azorean stocks were classified as sustainable stocks, 33% possible rebuilding/overfished and 22% overfishing/overfished stock status. Sensitivity analysis showed that biases on the source of initial life-history parameters, especially the asymptotic length (L∞) and the ratio of natural mortality and growth coefficient (M/k), have a stronger influence on the reference points of conservation of mature individuals (LBI), spawning potential ratio and fishing mortality (LBSPR) and the biomass relative to the maximum sustainable yield (LBB). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis indicated that, among the three methods, LBI is more robust. Our findings provide some management recommendations such as (1) catches and effort should be reduced; (2) minimum landing size should be increased; (3) minimum hook size should be increased, to be applied mainly for those stocks classified as possible rebuilding/overfished and overfishing/overfished stock status.

Background In the winter of 2016–2017, the number of deaths recorded in the north-west Europe was significantly higher than that in previous years. This spike in mortality was attributed principally to an influenza epidemic, but the contribution of air pollution and cold temperature has not been investigated. Information on the combined effect of low temperatures, influenza epidemic, and air pollution on mortality is inadequate. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess mortality in the winter of 2016–2017 in the metropolitan area of Milan, and to evaluate the independent short-term effect of 3 risk factors: low temperatures, the influenza epidemic, and air pollution. Methods We used a case-crossover, time-stratified study design. Mortality data were collected on all people aged > 65 years who died of natural causes, due to respiratory diseases or cardiovascular diseases, between December 1, 2016 and February 15, 2017. Environmental data were extracted from the Regional Environmental Protection Agency. The National Surveillance Network provided data on influenza epidemic. Results Among the 7590 natural deaths in people aged > 65 years, 965 (13%) were caused by respiratory conditions, and 2688 (35%) were caused by cardiovascular conditions. There were statistically significant associations between the minimum recorded temperature and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.944–0.989), and cardiovascular conditions (OR = 0.961, 95% CI: 0.925–0.999). There were also statistically significant association between the influenza epidemic and deaths due to natural causes (OR = 1.198, 95% CI: 1.156–1.241), cardiovascular conditions (OR = 1.153, 95% CI: 1.088–1.223), and respiratory conditions (OR = 1.303, 95% CI: 1.166–1.456). High levels of PM10 (60 and 70 μg/m 3 ) were associated with a statistically significant increase in natural and cause-specific mortality. There were statistically significant interactions between PM10 and influenza for cardiovascular-related mortality, and between influenza and temperature for deaths due to natural causes. Conclusions Excess of mortality in Milan during winter 2016–2017 was associated with influenza epidemic and concomitant environmental exposures, specifically, the combined effect of air pollution and low temperatures. Policies mitigating the effects of environmental risk factors should be implemented to prevent future excess mortality.

Natural mortality, M, is a key parameter for the assessment and management of living resources but is difficult to observe directly. Therefore, M is often estimated indirectly from life history traits, and it is typically assumed to be invariant over size, age, and time. Such indirect estimators are particularly relevant for data-poor species, including many elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays). However, as commonly used estimators were developed largely with teleost (bony fish) data, their performance for elasmobranchs is currently unknown. Here, we show that the relationship between observed maximum age, t max, and mean adult M is not significantly different between teleosts (n = 105) and elasmobranchs (n = 15). Furthermore, data on 16 teleosts and 2 elasmobranchs suggest that juvenile M can be estimated from adult M when juvenile M is inversely proportional to body length and when a reference length can be provided. We introduce this reference length as the length at the age after which M is assumed to be constant and demonstrate how it can be estimated using the von Bertalanffy growth function and the proportion surviving to t max, which is shown to be approximately 1–2%. The data utilized here also suggest that if t max is unknown it can be estimated from growth information by assuming that 99% of the asymptotic maximum length is reached at t max. Based on these life history parameters, the same indirect M estimators can be utilized for teleosts and elasmobranchs, which may contribute to more reliable assessments of data-poor species.