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Handbook of Operations Research in Natural Resources will be the first systematic handbook treatment of quantitative modeling natural resource problems, their allocated efficient use, and societal and economic impact. Andres Weintraub is the very top person in Natural Resource research. Moreover, he has an international reputation in OR and a former president of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS). He has selected co-editors who are at the top of the sub-fields in natural resources: agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and mining. The book will cover these areas in terms with contributions from researchers on modeling natural research problems, quantifying data, developing algorithms, and discussing the benefits of research implementations. The handbook will include tutorial contributions when necessary. Throughout the book, technological advances and algorithmic developments that have been driven by natural resource problems will be called out and discussed.

Operations Research Management Science approaches have helped people for the last 40 years to understand the complex functioning of the systems based upon natural resources, as well as to manage natural resources in the most efficient manner. The areas usually viewed within the natural resources field are: agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and mining and water resources. All of these areas share the common problem of optimally allocating scarcity over a period of time. The scale of time or length of the planning horizon differs from one area to another. We have almost a continuous renewal in the case of the fisheries, periodic cycles in the case of agriculture and forestry and enormous periods of time much beyond the human perception in the case of mining resources. But in all the cases, the critical issue is to obtain an efficient use of the resource along its planned time horizon. Another element of connection among the different natural resources is due to the interaction between the use of the resource and the environmental impact caused by its extraction or harvest. This type of interaction implies additional complexities in the underlying decision-making process, making the use of OR/MS tools especially relevant. HANDBOOK OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN NATURAL RESOURCES will be the first systematic handbook treatment of quantitative modeling natural resource problems, their allocated efficient use, and societal and economic impact. Andrés Weintraub is the very top person in Natural Resource research. Moreover, he has an international reputation in OR and a former president of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS). He has selected co-editors who are at the top of the sub-fields in natural resources: agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and mining. The book will cover these areas in terms with contributions from

Sustainable model for fisheries One approach to more sustainable fisheries is that of co-management, in which fishers and managers take joint responsibility for regulation. The evidence that this works is largely anecdotal, so Nicolás Gutiérrez and colleagues systematically examined 130 co-managed fisheries to find which attributes of co-management are required for success. Leadership, social cohesion, clear incentives and conservation efforts topped the list. On their evidence, the authors suggest, the co-management model could solve many of the problems facing commercial fisheries around the world. One approach to sustainable fisheries is that of co-management, in which fishers and managers take joint responsibility for regulation. The evidence that this works is largely anecdotal, so this study systematically examined 130 co-managed fisheries. Several attributes of co-management were required for success, with leadership being the most important. A total of 8 attributes of co-management were required for a successful fishery, and above this number there was a linear relationship between the extent of co-management and success. One billion people depend on seafood as their primary source of protein and 25% of the world’s total animal protein comes from fisheries 1 . Yet a third of fish stocks worldwide are overexploited or depleted 1 , 2 . Using individual case studies, many have argued that community-based co-management 3 should prevent the tragedy of the commons 4 because cooperative management by fishers, managers and scientists often results in sustainable fisheries 3 , 5 , 6 . However, general and multidisciplinary evaluations of co-management regimes and the conditions for social, economic and ecological success within such regimes are lacking. Here we examine 130 co-managed fisheries in a wide range of countries with different degrees of development, ecosystems, fishing sectors and type of resources. We identified strong leadership as the most important attribute contributing to success, followed by individual or community quotas, social cohesion and protected areas. Less important conditions included enforcement mechanisms, long-term management policies and life history of the resources. Fisheries were most successful when at least eight co-management attributes were present, showing a strong positive relationship between the number of these attributes and success, owing to redundancy in management regulations. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of prominent community leaders and robust social capital 7 , combined with clear incentives through catch shares and conservation benefits derived from protected areas, for successfully managing aquatic resources and securing the livelihoods of communities depending on them. Our study offers hope that co-management, the only realistic solution for the majority of the world’s fisheries, can solve many of the problems facing global fisheries.

Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal \"blacklist\" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies that are implemented in just a few locations.

Natural gas hydrate (NGH) has been widely considered as an alternative to conventional oil and gas resources in the future energy resource supply since Trofimuk’s first resource assessment in 1973. At least 29 global estimates have been published from various studies so far, among which 24 estimates are greater than the total conventional gas resources. If drawn in chronological order, the 29 historical resource estimates show a clear downward trend, reflecting the changes in our perception with respect to its resource potential with increasing our knowledge on the NGH with time. A time series of the 29 estimates was used to establish a statistical model for predict the future trend. The model produces an expected resource value of 41.46 × 10 12 m 3 at the year of 2050. The statistical trend projected future gas hydrate resource is only about 10% of total natural gas resource in conventional reservoir, consistent with estimates of global technically recoverable resources (TRR) in gas hydrate from Monte Carlo technique based on volumetric and material balance approaches. Considering the technical challenges and high cost in commercial production and the lack of competitive advantages compared with rapid growing unconventional and renewable resources, only those on the very top of the gas hydrate resource pyramid will be added to future energy supply. It is unlikely that the NGH will be the major energy source in the future.

Mangroves shelter coastlines during hazardous storm events with coastal communities experiencing mangrove deforestation are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages resulting from cyclones. To date, the benefits of mangroves in terms of protecting coastal areas have been estimated only through individual case studies of specific regions or countries. Using spatially referenced data and statistical methods, we track from 2000 to 2012 the impact of cyclones on economic activity in coastal regions inhabited by nearly 2,000 tropical and subtropical communities across 23 major mangrove-holding countries. We use nighttime luminosity to represent temporal trends in coastal economic activity and find that direct cyclone exposure typically results in permanent loss of 5.4–6.7 mo for a community with an average mangrove extent (6.3 m per meter of coastline); whereas, a community with more extensive mangroves (25.6 m per meter of coastline) experiences a loss equivalent to 2.6–5.5 mo. These results suggest that mangrove restoration efforts for protective benefits may bemore cost effective, and mangrove deforestation more damaging, than previously thought.

During the last decade, there has been a proliferation of statistical methods for studying resource selection by animals. While statistical techniques are advancing at a fast pace, there is confusion in the conceptual understanding of the meaning of various quantities that these statistical techniques provide. Terms such as selection, choice, use, occupancy and preference often are employed as if they are synonymous. Many practitioners are unclear about the distinctions between different concepts such as ‘probability of selection,’ ‘probability of use,’ ‘choice probabilities’ and ‘probability of occupancy’. Similarly, practitioners are not always clear about the differences between and relevance of ‘relative probability of selection’ vs. ‘probability of selection’ to effective management. Practitioners also are unaware that they are using only a single statistical model for modelling resource selection, namely the exponential probability of selection, when other models might be more appropriate. Currently, such multimodel inference is lacking in the resource selection literature. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the concepts and terminology used in animal resource studies by illustrating the relationships among these various concepts and providing their statistical underpinnings.

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are shrinking rapidly, altering regional hydrology 1 , raising global sea level 2 and elevating natural hazards 3 . Yet, owing to the scarcity of constrained mass loss observations, glacier evolution during the satellite era is known only partially, as a geographic and temporal patchwork 4 , 5 . Here we reveal the accelerated, albeit contrasting, patterns of glacier mass loss during the early twenty-first century. Using largely untapped satellite archives, we chart surface elevation changes at a high spatiotemporal resolution over all of Earth’s glaciers. We extensively validate our estimates against independent, high-precision measurements and present a globally complete and consistent estimate of glacier mass change. We show that during 2000–2019, glaciers lost a mass of 267 ± 16 gigatonnes per year, equivalent to 21 ± 3 per cent of the observed sea-level rise 6 . We identify a mass loss acceleration of 48 ± 16 gigatonnes per year per decade, explaining 6 to 19 per cent of the observed acceleration of sea-level rise. Particularly, thinning rates of glaciers outside ice sheet peripheries doubled over the past two decades. Glaciers currently lose more mass, and at similar or larger acceleration rates, than the Greenland or Antarctic ice sheets taken separately 7 – 9 . By uncovering the patterns of mass change in many regions, we find contrasting glacier fluctuations that agree with the decadal variability in precipitation and temperature. These include a North Atlantic anomaly of decelerated mass loss, a strongly accelerated loss from northwestern American glaciers, and the apparent end of the Karakoram anomaly of mass gain 10 . We anticipate our highly resolved estimates to advance the understanding of drivers that govern the distribution of glacier change, and to extend our capabilities of predicting these changes at all scales. Predictions robustly benchmarked against observations are critically needed to design adaptive policies for the local- and regional-scale management of water resources and cryospheric risks, as well as for the global-scale mitigation of sea-level rise. Analysis of satellite stereo imagery uncovers two decades of mass change for all of Earth’s glaciers, revealing accelerated glacier shrinkage and regionally contrasting changes consistent with decadal climate variability.

Inference of how evolutionary forces have shaped extant genetic diversity is a cornerstone of modern comparative sequence analysis. Advances in sequence generation and increased statistical sophistication of relevant methods now allow researchers to extract ever more evolutionary signal from the data, albeit at an increased computational cost. Here, we announce the release of Datamonkey 2.0, a completely re-engineered version of the Datamonkey web-server for analyzing evolutionary signatures in sequence data. For this endeavor, we leveraged recent developments in open-source libraries that facilitate interactive, robust, and scalable web application development. Datamonkey 2.0 provides a carefully curated collection of methods for interrogating coding-sequence alignments for imprints of natural selection, packaged as a responsive (i.e. can be viewed on tablet and mobile devices), fully interactive, and API-enabled web application. To complement Datamonkey 2.0, we additionally release HyPhy Vision, an accompanying JavaScript application for visualizing analysis results. HyPhy Vision can also be used separately from Datamonkey 2.0 to visualize locally executed HyPhy analyses. Together, Datamonkey 2.0 and HyPhy Vision showcase how scientific software development can benefit from general-purpose open-source frameworks. Datamonkey 2.0 is freely and publicly available at http://www.datamonkey.org, and the underlying codebase is available from https://github.com/veg/datamonkey-js.