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Background: We previously reported evidence of a dose–response relationship between ionising-radiation exposure from paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans and the risk of leukaemia and brain tumours in a large UK cohort. Underlying unreported conditions could have introduced bias into these findings. Methods: We collected and reviewed additional clinical information from radiology information systems (RIS) databases, underlying cause of death and pathology reports. We conducted sensitivity analyses excluding participants with cancer-predisposing conditions or previous unreported cancers and compared the dose–response analyses with our original results. Results: We obtained information from the RIS and death certificates for about 40% of the cohort (n∼180 000) and found cancer-predisposing conditions in 4 out of 74 leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cases and 13 out of 135 brain tumour cases. As these conditions were unrelated to CT exposure, exclusion of these participants did not alter the dose–response relationships. We found evidence of previous unreported cancers in 2 leukaemia/MDS cases, 7 brain tumour cases and 232 in non-cases. These previous cancers were related to increased number of CTs. Exclusion of these cancers reduced the excess relative risk per mGy by 15% from 0.036 to 0.033 for leukaemia/MDS ( P -trend=0.02) and by 30% from 0.023 to 0.016 ( P -trend<0.0001) for brain tumours. When we included pathology reports we had additional clinical information for 90% of the cases. Additional exclusions from these reports further reduced the risk estimates, but this sensitivity analysis may have underestimated risks as reports were only available for cases. Conclusions: Although there was evidence of some bias in our original risk estimates, re-analysis of the cohort with additional clinical data still showed an increased cancer risk after low-dose radiation exposure from CT scans in young patients.

BACKGROUND:After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in March 2011, radioactive elements were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Based on prior knowledge, concern emerged about whether an increased incidence of thyroid cancer among exposed residents would occur as a result. METHODS:After the release, Fukushima Prefecture performed ultrasound thyroid screening on all residents ages ≤18 years. The first round of screening included 298,577 examinees, and a second round began in April 2014. We analyzed the prefecture results from the first and second round up to December 31, 2014, in comparison with the Japanese annual incidence and the incidence within a reference area in Fukushima Prefecture. RESULTS:The highest incidence rate ratio, using a latency period of 4 years, was observed in the central middle district of the prefecture compared with the Japanese annual incidence (incidence rate ratio = 50; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 25, 90). The prevalence of thyroid cancer was 605 per million examinees (95% CI = 302, 1,082) and the prevalence odds ratio compared with the reference district in Fukushima Prefecture was 2.6 (95% CI = 0.99, 7.0). In the second screening round, even under the assumption that the rest of examinees were disease free, an incidence rate ratio of 12 has already been observed (95% CI = 5.1, 23). CONCLUSIONS:An excess of thyroid cancer has been detected by ultrasound among children and adolescents in Fukushima Prefecture within 4 years of the release, and is unlikely to be explained by a screening surge.

Abstract Background Children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodine-131 (I-131) in fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident appear to be at increased risk of thyroid cancer and benign thyroid nodules. The prenatal period is also considered radiosensitive, and the fetal thyroid can absorb I-131 from the maternal circulation. Objectives We aimed to estimate the risk of malignant and benign thyroid nodules in individuals exposed prenatally. Methods We studied a cohort of 2582 subjects in Ukraine with estimates of I-131 prenatal thyroid dose (mean = 72.6 mGy), who underwent two standardized thyroid screening examinations. To evaluate the dose-response relationship, we estimated the excess OR (EOR) using logistic regression. Results Based on a combined total of eight cases diagnosed at screenings from 2003 to 2006 and 2012 to 2015, we found a markedly elevated, albeit not statistically significant, dose-related risk of thyroid cancer (EOR/Gy = 3.91, 95% CI: –1.49, 65.66). At cycle 2 (n = 1,786), there was a strong and significant association between I-131 thyroid dose and screen-detected large benign nodules (≥10 mm) (EOR/Gy = 4.19, 95% CI: 0.68, 11.62; P = 0.009), but no significant increase in risk for small nodules (<10 mm) (EOR/Gy = 0.34, 95% CI: –0.67, 2.24; P = 0.604). Conclusions The dose effect by nodule size, with I-131 risk for large but not small nodules, is similar to that among exposed children and adolescents in Belarus. Based on a small number of cases, there is also a suggestive effect of I-131 dose on thyroid cancer risk. We studied a cohort in Ukraine exposed prenatally to I-131 in fallout from Chernobyl and found a suggestive increase in thyroid cancer and a significant association with risk of large benign nodules.

Objectives. To determine the lung cancer screening yield and stages in a union-sponsored low-dose computerized tomography scan program for nuclear weapons workers with diverse ages, smoking histories, and occupations. Methods. We implemented a low-dose computerized tomography program among 7189 nuclear weapons workers in 9 nonmetropolitan US communities during 2000 to 2013. Eligibility criteria included age, smoking, occupation, radiographic asbestos-related fibrosis, and a positive beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test. Results. The proportion with screen-detected lung cancer among smokers aged 50 years or older was 0.83% at baseline and 0.51% on annual scan. Of 80 lung cancers, 59% (n = 47) were stage I, and 10% (n = 8) were stage II. Screening yields of study subpopulations who met the National Lung Screening Trial or the National Comprehensive Cancer Network Group 2 eligibility criteria were similar to those found in the National Lung Screening Trial. Conclusions. Computerized tomography screening for lung cancer among high-risk workers leads to a favorable yield of early-stage lung cancers. Public Health Implications. Health equity and efficiency dictate that screening high-risk workers for lung cancer should be an important public health priority.

ObjectiveCancer survivors treated with abdominal/pelvic radiation therapy (ART) have increased the risks of colorectal cancer (CRC), although evidence supporting early CRC screening for these patients is lacking. We sought to determine whether there is an elevated prevalence of adenomatous colorectal polyps in young survivors prior to the age when screening would be routinely recommended.DesignWe conducted a prospective study of early colonoscopic screening in cancer survivors aged 35–49 who had received ART ≥10 years previously. The planned sample size was based on prior studies reporting a prevalence of adenomatous polyps of approximately 20% among the average-risk population ≥50 years of age, in contrast to ≤10% among those average-risk people aged 40–50 years, for whom screening is not routinely recommended.ResultsColonoscopy was performed in 54 survivors, at a median age of 45 years (range 36–49) and after median interval from radiation treatment of 19 years (10.6–43.5). Forty-nine polyps were detected in 24 patients, with 15 patients (27.8%; 95% CI 17.6% to 40.9%) having potentially precancerous polyps. Fifty-three per cent of polyps were within or at the edge of the prior ART fields.ConclusionsYoung survivors treated with ART have a polyp prevalence comparable with the average-risk population aged ≥50 years and substantially higher than previously reported for the average-risk population aged 40–50 years. These findings lend support to the early initiation of screening in these survivors.Clinical trial registration numberNCT00982059; results.

BackgroundIn October 2011, the Fukushima prefectural government started a thyroid ultrasound examination (TUE) as part of the Fukushima Health Management Survey following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. The proportion of examinees is an important factor when interpreting the results.ObjectivesTo construct models that assess the relationship between the proportion of non-examinees and the characteristics of eligible participants in the first-round to third-round TUEs. Using these models, estimate the number of thyroid cancer cases in the entire population for each survey, considering non-examinees.DesignModel-based estimation using cohort survey data.SettingsFukushima Health Management Survey from 2011 to 2017.ParticipantsChildren and adolescents aged 18 years or younger (363 342 individuals) who were identified through resident registration records, resided in Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident, and were eligible for each TUE.Outcome measuresModelling the relationship between non-examinee status and individual characteristics, and estimating the number of cases in the entire population for each survey round.ResultsThe area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the constructed models ranged from 0.815 to 0.905. In the first-round, second-round and third-round TUEs, 115, 70 and 30 cases were observed among 294 921, 258 771 and 208 955 examinees, respectively, whereas the estimated number of cases in the entire population including the non-examinees was 177.3 (95% CI 167.0 to 188.0), 126.3 (95% CI 106.3 to 150.2) and 49.7 (95% CI 35.8 to 71.9), respectively.ConclusionsThese estimates were higher than the actual number of observed cases because they considered non-examinees. Our model for non-examination showed a high discriminant accuracy and was considered to capture well the factors that resulted in non-examinees. This study’s findings provide valuable information for studies considering the number of potential thyroid cancer cases among non-examinees and may facilitate appropriate interpretation of reports and prospective survey outcome management.

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point “best estimates”. In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

Recently reported studies have associated radiation exposure from computed tomography (CT) scanning with small excess cancer risks. However, since existing medical records were used in these studies, they could not control for reasons for the CT scans and therefore, the results may have been confounded by indication. Here we conducted a study to estimate potential indication bias that could affect hazard ratios for colorectal, lung and female breast cancers by reasons for a CT scan. This involved a retrospective cohort study of electronic records from all patients aged 18–89 years without previous cancer diagnoses, who received at least one CT scan at Columbia University Medical Center in the period of 1994–2014. This investigation is not a study of CT-related cancer risks with adjustment for reasons, but an evaluation of the potential for confounding by indication in such studies. Among 75,968 patients, 212,487 CT scans were analyzed during a mean follow-up of 7.6 years. For colorectal and female breast cancers, no hazard ratio bias estimates for any of the CT reasons reached statistical significance. For lung cancer, significant biases occurred only in patients with unknown CT reasons and in patients with CTs for “abnormal findings” and in those with CTs for cancer- or nodule-related reasons. This retrospective cohort study among adults with ≥1 CT scan evaluates, for the first time, CT reason-specific indication biases of potential CT-related cancer risks. Overall, our data suggest that, in studies of adults who underwent CT scans, indication bias is likely to be of negligible importance for colorectal cancer and female breast cancer risk estimation; for lung cancer, indication bias is possible but would likely be associated with only a small modulation of the risk estimate. Radiat. Res.

This study was designed to estimate radiation‐induced secondary cancer risks from high‐dose‐rate (HDR) brachytherapy and external radiotherapy for patients with cervical cancer based on measurements of doses absorbed by various organs. Organ doses from HDR brachytherapy and external radiotherapy were measured using glass rod dosimeters. Doses to out‐of‐field organs were measured at various locations inside an anthropomorphic phantom. Brachytherapy‐associated organ doses were measured using a specialized phantom that enabled applicator insertion, with the pelvis portion of the existing anthropomorphic phantom replaced by this new phantom. Measured organ doses were used to calculate secondary cancer risk based on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII models. In both treatment modalities, organ doses per prescribed dose (PD) mostly depended on the distance between organs. The locations showing the highest and lowest doses were the right kidney (external radiotherapy: 215.2 mGy; brachytherapy: 655.17 mGy) and the brain (external radiotherapy: 15.82 mGy; brachytherapy: 2.49 mGy), respectively. Organ doses to nearby regions were higher for brachytherapy than for external beam therapy, whereas organ doses to distant regions were higher for external beam therapy. Organ doses to distant treatment regions in external radiotherapy were due primarily to out‐of‐field radiation resulting from scattering and leakage in the gantry head. For brachytherapy, the highest estimated lifetime attributable risk per 100,000 population was to the stomach (88.6), whereas the lowest risks were to the brain (0.4) and eye (0.4); for external radiotherapy, the highest and lowest risks were to the thyroid (305.1) and brain (2.4). These results may help provide a database on the impact of radiotherapy‐induced secondary cancer incidence during cervical cancer treatment, as well as suggest further research on strategies to counteract the risks of radiotherapy‐associated secondary malignancies. PACS number(s): 87.52.‐g, 87.52.Px, 87.53.Dq, 87.53.Jw