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Several vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are expected to be available in Australia in 2021. Initial supply is limited and will require a judicious vaccination strategy until supply is unrestricted. If vaccines have efficacy as post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in contacts, this provides more policy options. We used a deterministic mathematical model of epidemic response with limited supply (age-targeted or ring vaccination) and mass vaccination for the State of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia. For targeted vaccination, the effectiveness of vaccinating health workers, young people and older adults was compared. For mass vaccination, we tested varying vaccine efficacy (VE) and distribution capacities. With a limited vaccine stockpile enough for 1 million people in NSW, if there is efficacy as PEP, the most efficient way to control COVID-19 will be ring vaccination, however at least 90% of contacts per case needs to be traced and vaccinated. Health worker vaccination is required for health system resilience. Age based strategies with restricted doses make minimal impact on the epidemic, but vaccinating older people prevents more deaths. Herd immunity can only be achieved with mass vaccination. With 90% VE against all infection, herd immunity can be achieved by vaccinating 66% of the population. A vaccine with less than 70% VE cannot achieve herd immunity and will result in ongoing risk of outbreaks. For mass vaccination, distributing at least 60,000 doses per day is required to achieve control. Slower rates of vaccination will result in the population living with COVID-19 longer, and higher cases and deaths.

Objective To determine if the comparison of acute and chronic workload is associated with increased injury risk in elite cricket fast bowlers. Methods Data were collected from 28 fast bowlers who completed a total of 43 individual seasons over a 6-year period. Workloads were estimated by summarising the total number of balls bowled per week (external workload), and by multiplying the session rating of perceived exertion by the session duration (internal workload). One-week data (acute workload), together with 4-week rolling average data (chronic workload), were calculated for external and internal workloads. The size of the acute workload in relation to the chronic workload provided either a negative or positive training-stress balance. Results A negative training-stress balance was associated with an increased risk of injury in the week after exposure, for internal workload (relative risk (RR)=2.2 (CI 1.91 to 2.53), p=0.009), and external workload (RR=2.1 (CI 1.81 to 2.44), p=0.01). Fast bowlers with an internal workload training-stress balance of greater than 200% had a RR of injury of 4.5 (CI 3.43 to 5.90, p=0.009) compared with those with a training-stress balance between 50% and 99%. Fast bowlers with an external workload training-stress balance of more than 200% had a RR of injury of 3.3 (CI 1.50 to 7.25, p=0.033) in comparison to fast bowlers with an external workload training-stress balance between 50% and 99%. Conclusions These findings demonstrate that large increases in acute workload are associated with increased injury risk in elite cricket fast bowlers.

AbstractObjectivesTo determine the strength and nature of the association between delirium and incident dementia in a population of older adult patients without dementia at baseline.DesignRetrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data.SettingPublic and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020.ParticipantsData were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years.Main outcome measuresCox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.ResultsThe study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23).ConclusionsThe study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.

Summary We assessed the ability of a fracture liaison service (FLS) to directly reduce re-fracture risk. Having a FLS is associated with a ∼40 % reduction in the 3-year risk of major bone and ∼30 % of any bone re-fracture. The number needed to treat to prevent a re-fracture is 20. Introduction FLS have been promoted as the most effective interventions for secondary fracture prevention, and while there is evidence of increased rate of investigation and treatment at institutions with a FLS, only a few studies have considered fracture outcomes directly. We therefore sought to evaluate the ability of our FLS to reduce re-fracture risk. Methods Historical cohort study of all patients ≥50 years presenting over a 6-month period with a minimal trauma fracture (MTF) to the emergency departments of a tertiary hospital with a FLS, and one without a FLS. Baseline characteristics, mortality and MTFs over a 3-year follow-up were recorded. Results Five hundred fifteen patients at the FLS hospital and 416 patients at the non-FLS hospital were studied. Over 3 years, 63/515 (12 %) patients at the FLS hospital and 70/416 (17 %) at the non-FLS hospital had a MTF. All patients were analysed in an intention-to-treat analysis regardless of whether they were seen in the FLS follow-up clinic. Statistical analysis using Cox proportional hazard models in the presence of a competing risk of death from any cause was used. After adjustment for baseline characteristics, there was a ∼30 % reduction in rate of any re-fracture at the FLS hospital (hazard ratio (HR) 0.67, confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.95, p value 0.025) and a ∼40 % reduction in major re-fractures (hip, spine, femur, pelvis or humerus) (HR 0.59, CI 0.39-0.90, p value 0.013). Conclusions We found a ∼30 % reduction in any re-fractures and a ∼40 % reduction in major re-fractures at the FLS hospital compared with a similar non-FLS hospital. The number of patients needed to treat to prevent one new fracture over 3 years is 20.

Lifestyle risk behaviors are responsible for a large proportion of disease burden worldwide. Behavioral risk factors, such as smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity, tend to cluster within populations and may have synergistic effects on health. As evidence continues to accumulate on emerging lifestyle risk factors, such as prolonged sitting and unhealthy sleep patterns, incorporating these new risk factors will provide clinically relevant information on combinations of lifestyle risk factors. Using data from a large Australian cohort of middle-aged and older adults, this is the first study to our knowledge to examine a lifestyle risk index incorporating sedentary behavior and sleep in relation to all-cause mortality. Baseline data (February 2006- April 2009) were linked to mortality registration data until June 15, 2014. Smoking, high alcohol intake, poor diet, physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and unhealthy (short/long) sleep duration were measured by questionnaires and summed into an index score. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used with the index score and each unique risk combination as exposure variables, adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics. During 6 y of follow-up of 231,048 participants for 1,409,591 person-years, 15,635 deaths were registered. Of all participants, 31.2%, 36.9%, 21.4%, and 10.6% reported 0, 1, 2, and 3+ risk factors, respectively. There was a strong relationship between the lifestyle risk index score and all-cause mortality. The index score had good predictive validity (c index = 0.763), and the partial population attributable risk was 31.3%. Out of all 96 possible risk combinations, the 30 most commonly occurring combinations accounted for more than 90% of the participants. Among those, combinations involving physical inactivity, prolonged sitting, and/or long sleep duration and combinations involving smoking and high alcohol intake had the strongest associations with all-cause mortality. Limitations of the study include self-reported and under-specified measures, dichotomized risk scores, lack of long-term patterns of lifestyle behaviors, and lack of cause-specific mortality data. Adherence to healthy lifestyle behaviors could reduce the risk for death from all causes. Specific combinations of lifestyle risk behaviors may be more harmful than others, suggesting synergistic relationships among risk factors.

Australia appears to have largely suppressed the first wave of Covid-19 infections. The authors describe key responses, including travel restrictions, effective identification and isolation of infected people, and quarantine of those who have been exposed.

There is a paucity of high-quality evidence based on clinical endpoints for routine cleaning of shared medical equipment. We assessed the effect of enhanced cleaning and disinfection of shared medical equipment on health-care-associated infections (HAIs) in hospitalised patients. We conducted a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised, controlled trial in ten wards of a single hospital located on the central coast of New South Wales, Australia. Hospitals were eligible for inclusion if they were classified as public acute group A according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, were located in New South Wales, had an intensive care unit, had a minimum of ten wards, and provided care for patients aged 18 years or older. Each cluster consisted of two randomly allocated wards (by use of simple randomisation), with a new cluster beginning the intervention every 6 weeks. Wards were informed of their allocation 2 weeks before commencement of intervention exposure, and the researcher collecting primary outcome data and audit data was masked to treatment sequence allocation. In the control phase, there was no change to environmental cleaning practices. In the intervention phase, a multimodal cleaning bundle included an additional 3 h per weekday for the dedicated cleaning and disinfection of shared medical equipment by 21 dedicated cleaning staff, with ongoing education, audit, and feedback. The primary outcome was the number of confirmed cases of HAI, as assessed by a fortnightly point prevalence survey and measured in all patients admitted to the wards during the study period. The completed trial is registered with Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12622001143718). The hospital was recruited on July 31, 2022, and the study was conducted between March 20 and Nov 24, 2023. We assessed 220 hospitals for eligibility, of which five were invited to participate, and the first hospital to formally respond was enrolled. 5002 patients were included in the study (2524 [50·5%] women and 2478 [49·5%] men). In unadjusted results, 433 confirmed HAI cases occurred in 2497 patients (17·3%, 95% CI 15·9 to 18·8) in the control phase and 301 confirmed HAI cases occurred in 2508 patients (12·0%, 10·7 to 13·3) in the intervention phase. In adjusted results, there was a relative reduction of –34·5% (–50·3 to –17·5) in HAIs following the intervention (odds ratio 0·62, 95% CI 0·45 to 0·80; p=0·0006), corresponding to an absolute reduction equal to –5·2% (–8·2 to –2·3). No adverse effects were reported. Improving the cleaning and disinfection of shared medical equipment significantly reduced HAIs, underscoring the crucial role of cleaning in improving patient outcomes. Findings emphasise the need for dedicated approaches for cleaning shared equipment. National Health and Medical Research Council.

The question of whether people who stutter are generally more anxious than people who do not stutter has not yet been resolved. One major methodological barrier to determining whether differences exist has been the type of stuttering sample used. Studies investigating anxiety levels of those who stutter have mostly assessed people referred to stuttering therapy clinics, which is arguably a biased sample. To date, no studies have been published that have measured the anxiety levels of people who stutter in the community using random selection procedures. Such a sample is more likely to be representative of the population of people who stutter. The present study involved a random selection and telephone interview of people in 4,689 households. The telephone respondent was given a description of stuttering and asked if any person living in their household stuttered. If yes, a number of corroborative questions were asked, and permission was requested to tape the speech of the person believed to stutter over the telephone. A definite case of stuttering was based on (a) a positive detection of stuttering from the tape and (b) at least one of the corroborative questions supporting the diagnosis. A total of 87 people were identified as definite cases of stuttering across all ages, and 63 participants who were 15 years or older completed a trait anxiety questionnaire over the telephone. Mean trait anxiety levels were significantly higher than levels generally found in society, though differences were not large. Implications of these results are discussed.

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change.

Using linked public health data from Australia to measure uptake of COVID-19 vaccination by infection status, we found coverage considerably lower among infected than uninfected persons for all ages. Increasing uptake of scheduled doses, including among previously infected persons after the recommended postinfection delay, is needed to reduce COVID-19 illness rates.