Explore the vast range of titles available.

Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce wheat grain number and yield, but quantitative evaluation of such an effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and to identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimize drought-tolerant (DT) and drought-sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under a future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared with DS, with higher yield stability. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28–37% greater compared with DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10–23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.

The exposure of the Earth’s surface to the energetic input of rainfall is one of the key factors controlling water erosion. While water erosion is identified as the most serious cause of soil degradation globally, global patterns of rainfall erosivity remain poorly quantified and estimates have large uncertainties. This hampers the implementation of effective soil degradation mitigation and restoration strategies. Quantifying rainfall erosivity is challenging as it requires high temporal resolution(<30 min) and high fidelity rainfall recordings. We present the results of an extensive global data collection effort whereby we estimated rainfall erosivity for 3,625 stations covering 63 countries. This first ever Global Rainfall Erosivity Database was used to develop a global erosivity map at 30 arc-seconds(~1 km) based on a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR). Globally, the mean rainfall erosivity was estimated to be 2,190 MJ mm ha −1 h −1 yr −1 , with the highest values in South America and the Caribbean countries, Central east Africa and South east Asia. The lowest values are mainly found in Canada, the Russian Federation, Northern Europe, Northern Africa and the Middle East. The tropical climate zone has the highest mean rainfall erosivity followed by the temperate whereas the lowest mean was estimated in the cold climate zone.

Projections for near-surface soil moisture content in Europe for the 21st century were derived from simulations performed with 26 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered. Unlike in previous research in general, projections were calculated separately for all four calendar seasons. To make the moisture contents simulated by the various GCMs commensurate, the moisture data were normalized by the corresponding local maxima found in the output of each individual GCM. A majority of the GCMs proved to perform satisfactorily in simulating the geographical distribution of recent soil moisture in the warm season, the spatial correlation with an satellite-derived estimate varying between 0.4 and 0.8. In southern Europe, long-term mean soil moisture is projected to decline substantially in all seasons. In summer and autumn, pronounced soil drying also afflicts western and central Europe. In northern Europe, drying mainly occurs in spring, in correspondence with an earlier melt of snow and soil frost. The spatial pattern of drying is qualitatively similar for both RCP scenarios, but weaker in magnitude under RCP4.5. In general, those GCMs that simulate the largest decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature and solar radiation tend to produce the most severe soil drying. Concurrently with the reduction of time-mean soil moisture, episodes with an anomalously low soil moisture, occurring once in 10 years in the recent past simulations, become far more common. In southern Europe by the late 21st century under RCP8.5, such events would be experienced about every second year.

The decay of assemblage similarity with spatial distance can be explained by alternative mechanisms: dispersal limitation and species sorting. To understand their relative contributions, we compare the decay in faunal similarity with spatial distance and, independently, with climatic distance, of 21 beetle taxa with varying dispersal abilities and ecological niches, in southern and northern Europe. Similarity in beetle faunas was associated to spatial but not to climatic distances, pointing to the preponderance of dispersal processes rather than niche constraints. In most taxa, southern faunas were more dissimilar than northern ones: smaller initial similarity and steeper distance decay rate. Distance decay patterns in the north were relatively flat and very similar across taxa, suggesting that only good dispersers would have reached those latitudes after the glacial retreat. The difference in distance decay patterns between north and south is correlated with the taxon’s slope of the distance decay pattern in the south and with its latitudinal richness difference. That is, in taxa with distance decay patterns similarly flat in the south and the north, the latitudinal richness gradient is weak. This correlation points again to differences in dispersal ability as a major determinant of biogeographic patterns in European beetles. Both dispersal and niche-related characteristics explained north-south slope differences, but dispersal attributes turned out to be more relevant when initial similarity and distance decay strength were considered together. Our results show that, to understand diversity patterns in Europe, closely related biological groups cannot be assumed to be surrogates and regions with different historical biogeography should be analysed separately. Paradoxically, the study of beetle faunas of southern Europe will shed light on the processes controlling the recolonization of northern latitudes.

Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, and started societal debate on (changing) drought vulnerability and adaptation measures. We investigate the occurrence of multi-year droughts in the Rhine basin, with a focus on event probability in the present and in future warmer climates. Additionally, we investigate the temporally compounding physical drivers of multi-year drought events. A combination of multiple reanalysis datasets and multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to provide a robust analysis of the statistics and physical processes of these rare events. We identify two types of multi-year drought events (consecutive meteorological summer droughts and long-duration hydrological droughts), and show that these occur on average about twice in a 30 year period in the present climate, though natural variability is large (zero to five events can occur in a single 30 year period). Projected decreases in summer precipitation and increases in atmospheric evaporative demand, lead to a doubling of event probability at 1 ∘C additional global warming relative to present-day and an increase in the average length of events. Consecutive meteorological summer droughts are forced by two, seemingly independent, summers of lower than normal precipitation and higher than normal evaporative demand. The soil moisture response to this temporally compound meteorological forcing has a clear multi-year imprint, resulting in a relatively larger reduction of soil moisture content in the second year of drought, and potentially more severe drought impacts. Long-duration hydrological droughts start with a severe summer drought followed by lingering meteorologically dry conditions. This limits and slows down the hydrological recovery of soil moisture content, leading to long-lasting drought conditions. This initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation of multi-year drought hazard and vulnerability in the region, which is advised given the projected trends and vulnerability of society and ecosystems.

The impacts of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) on wintertime precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed based on various datasets. Two groups of ensemble climate model experiments with the SPV nudged towards strong and weak states are performed to clarify stratospheric impacts on changes in precipitation. During weak SPV events, precipitation rates over the western and southeastern parts of North Pacific Ocean, the southern part of North Atlantic Ocean, and Southern Europe are larger, whereas the total precipitation rates over the central North Pacific, the northern part of North Atlantic and Northern Europe are smaller than those during strong SPV events. The SPV-induced changes in precipitation over the North Atlantic are stronger than those over the North Pacific. The convective (large-scale) precipitation changes play a major role in the total precipitation changes over the southern (northern) parts of middle latitudes associated with SPV changes. The tropospheric zonal wind deceleration around 60°N associated with weak SPV events is responsible for lower-tropospheric anomalous cyclonic flows over the two oceans at middle latitudes. The anomalous cyclonic flows lead to more large-scale precipitation in the southeastern parts of the oceans and less large-scale precipitation over Northern Europe and the central North Pacific during weak SPV events. The stratosphere–troposphere coupling over the North Atlantic is stronger than that over the North Pacific, leading to stronger large-scale precipitation responses over the former region. In addition, convective precipitation rates between 30 and 45°N are basically larger during weak SPV events than during strong SPV events. This is because more baroclinic waves associated with a southward shift of storm tracks during weak SPV events cause more heat exchanges between the lower latitudes and higher latitudes. Consequently, the upper tropospheric temperature and static ability between 30 and 45°N are reduced, leading to larger convective available potential energy and more convective precipitation during weak SPV events.

Given paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may affect the global climate system, we conduct model experiments with EC-Earth3, a state-of-the-art GCM, to specifically investigate, for the first time, mechanisms of precipitation change over the Euro-Atlantic sector induced by a weakened AMOC. We artificially weaken the strength of the AMOC in the model through the release of a freshwater anomaly into the Northern Hemisphere high latitude ocean, thereby obtaining a ~ 57% weaker AMOC with respect to its preindustrial strength for 60 model years. Similar to prior studies, we find that Northern Hemisphere precipitation decreases in response to a weakened AMOC. However, we also find that the frequency of wet days increases in some regions. By computing the atmospheric moisture budget, we find that intensified but drier storms cause less precipitation over land. Nevertheless, changes in the jet stream tend to enhance precipitation over northwestern Europe. We further investigate the association of precipitation anomalies with large-scale atmospheric circulations by computing weather regimes through clustering of geopotential height daily anomalies. We find an increase in the frequency of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+), which is associated with an increase in the occurrence of wet days over northern Europe and drier conditions over southern Europe. Since a ~ 57% reduction in the AMOC strength is within the inter-model range of projected AMOC declines by the end of the twenty-first century, our results have implications for understanding the role of AMOC in future hydrological changes.

The leading pattern of boreal spring 250-hPa meridional wind anomalies over the North Atlantic and mid-high latitude Eurasia displays an obvious wave train. The present study documents the structure, energy source, relation to the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), and impacts on Eurasian climate of this wave train during 1948–2018. This atmospheric wave train has a barotropic vertical structure with five major centers of action lying over subtropics and mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, northern Europe, central Eurasia, and East Asia, respectively. This spring wave train can efficiently extract available potential energy from the basic mean flow. The baroclinic energy conversion process and positive interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the mean flow both play important roles in generating and maintaining this wave train. The North Atlantic horseshoe-like (NAH) SST anomaly contributes to the persistence of the wave train via a positive air–sea interaction. Specifically, the NAH SST anomaly induces a Rossby wave-type atmospheric response, which in turn maintains the NAH SST anomaly pattern via modulating surface heat fluxes. This spring atmospheric wave train has significant impacts on Eurasian surface air temperature (SAT) and rainfall. During the positive phase of the wave train, pronounced SAT warming appears over central Eurasia and cooling occurs over west Europe and eastern Eurasia. In addition, above-normal rainfall appears over most parts of Europe and around the Lake Baikal, accompanied by below-normal rainfall to east of the Caspian Sea and over central Asia.

Aim: General geographical patterns of insect body size are still a matter of considerable debate, mainly because the annual number of generations (voltinism) and its relationship with body size have largely been ignored. We present the first analyses of voltinism and body size of insect assemblages at a continental scale using lepidopteran and odonate species. We hypothesize that voltinism is strongly driven by environmental conditions and constrains body size on macroecological scales. Location: Europe. Methods: We compiled the distribution, voltinism and body size of 943 lepidopteran and odonate species within a 50 km × 50 km grid system, thereby presenting a novel method for estimating the body volume of species from digital images. Regressions and structural equation modelling were applied to distinguish the effects of temperature, productivity and season length on mean voltinism and body size within grid cells. We accounted for spatial autocorrelation with auto regressive models and analysed the possible effect of species richness and intraspecific variability. Results: Voltinism consistently decreased with latitude for both lepidopterans (r² = 0.76) and odonates (r² = 0.86), with species having on average fewer generations per year in northern Europe and more generations per year in southern Europe. The effects of temperature, productivity and season length on body size contrasted in sign between lepidopterans and odonates, leading to opposing geographical patterns across Europe. Main conclusions: Voltinism in insect assemblages is strongly driven by environmental temperature, and trade-offs between voltinism and body size influence the occurrence of species at macroecological scales. Insects with the ability to extend their generation time over multiple years can overcome this constraint, allowing for a relatively large body size in cold areas. Our results furthermore support the idea that body sizes of terrestrial and aquatic insects form contrasting geographical patterns because they are differently affected by temperature and resource constraints.

Extensively managed grasslands are recognized globally for their high biodiversity and their social and cultural values. However, their capacity to deliver multiple ecosystem services (ES) as parts of agricultural systems is surprisingly understudied compared to other production systems. We undertook a comprehensive overview of ES provided by natural and semi‐natural grasslands, using southern Africa (SA) and northwest Europe as case studies, respectively. We show that these grasslands can supply additional non‐agricultural services, such as water supply and flow regulation, carbon storage, erosion control, climate mitigation, pollination, and cultural ES. While demand for ecosystems services seems to balance supply in natural grasslands of SA, the smaller areas of semi‐natural grasslands in Europe appear to not meet the demand for many services. We identified three bundles of related ES from grasslands: water ES including fodder production, cultural ES connected to livestock production, and population‐based regulating services (e.g., pollination and biological control), which also linked to biodiversity. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation seemed unrelated to the three bundles. The similarities among the bundles in SA and northwestern Europe suggest that there are generalities in ES relations among natural and semi‐natural grassland areas. We assessed trade‐offs and synergies among services in relation to management practices and found that although some trade‐offs are inevitable, appropriate management may create synergies and avoid trade‐offs among many services. We argue that ecosystem service and food security research and policy should give higher priority to how grasslands can be managed for fodder and meat production alongside other ES. By integrating grasslands into agricultural production systems and land‐use decisions locally and regionally, their potential to contribute to functional landscapes and to food security and sustainable livelihoods can be greatly enhanced.