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The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has not only posed significant challenges to public health but has also impacted every aspect of society and the environment. In this study, we propose an index of notifiable disease outbreaks (NDOI) to assess the impact of COVID-19 on other notifiable diseases in Shanghai, China. Additionally, we identify the critical factors influencing these diseases using multivariate statistical analysis. We collected monthly data on 34 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) and corresponding environmental and socioeconomic factors (17 indicators) from January 2017 to December 2020. The results revealed that the total number of cases and NDOI of all notifiable diseases decreased by 47.1% and 52.6%, respectively, compared to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to improved air quality as well as impacted the social economy and human life. Redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that population mobility, particulate matter (PM2.5), atmospheric pressure, and temperature were the primary factors influencing the spread of notifiable diseases. The NDOI is beneficial in establishing an early warning system for infectious disease epidemics at different scales. Furthermore, our findings also provide insight into the response mechanisms of notifiable diseases influenced by social and environmental factors.

Background: Canada has maintained a low incidence of toxigenic diphtheria since the 1990s, supported by continued commitment to publicly funded vaccination programs. Objective: To determine whether hospitalization data, complemented with notifiable disease data, can describe the toxigenic respiratory and cutaneous diphtheria burden in Canada, and to assess if Canada is meeting its diphtheria vaccine–preventable disease-reduction target of zero annual cases of locally transmitted respiratory diphtheria. Methods: Diphtheria-related hospital discharge data from 2006 to 2017 were extracted from the Discharge Abstract Database (DAD), and diphtheria case counts for the same period were retrieved from the Canadian Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (CNDSS), for descriptive analyses. As data from the province of Québec are not included in the DAD, CNDSS cases from Québec were excluded. Results: A total of 233 diphtheria-related hospitalizations were recorded in the DAD. Of these, diphtheria was the most responsible diagnosis in 23. Half the patients were male (52%), and 57% were 60 years and older. Central region (Ontario) accounted for the most discharge records (61%), followed by Prairie region (Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan; 23%). Cutaneous diphtheria accounted for 43% of records, and respiratory diphtheria accounted for 3%, with the remainder being other diphtheria complications or site unspecified. Two records with diphtheria as the most responsible diagnosis resulted in inpatient deaths. Eighteen cases of diphtheria were reported through CNDSS. Cases occurred in all age groups, with the largest proportions among those aged 20 to 59 years (39%) and those aged 19 years and younger (33%). Cases were only reported in the Prairie (89%) and West Coast (British Columbia; 11%) regions. Conclusion: Hospital administrative data are consistent with the low incidence of diphtheria reported in CNDSS, and a low burden of respiratory diphtheria in Canada. Although Canada appears to be on track to meet its disease-reduction target, information on endemic transmission is not available.

Background. Laboratory testing is helpful when evaluating patients with suspected Lyme disease (LD). A 2-tiered antibody testing approach is recommended, but single-tier and nonvalidated tests are also used. We conducted a survey of large commercial laboratories in the United States to assess laboratory practices. We used these data to estimate the cost of testing and number of infections among patients from whom specimens were submitted. Methods. Large commercial laboratories were asked to report the type and volume of testing conducted nationwide in 2008, as well as the percentage of positive tests for 4 LD-endemic states. The total direct cost of testing was calculated for each test type. These data and test-specific performance parameters available in published literature were used to estimate the number of infections among source patients. Results. Seven participating laboratories performed approximately 3.4 million LD tests on approximately 2.4 million specimens nationwide at an estimated cost of $492 million. Two-tiered testing accounted for at least 62% of assays performed; alternative testing accounted for <3% of assays. The estimated frequency of infection among patients from whom specimens were submitted ranged from 10% to 18.5%. Applied to the total numbers of specimens, this yielded an estimated 240 000 to 444 000 infected source patients in 2008. Discussion. LD testing is common and costly, with most testing in accordance with diagnostic recommendations. These results highlight the importance of considering clinical and exposure history when interpreting laboratory results for diagnostic and surveillance purposes.

We report the first occurrence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus [A(H1N1)pdm09] infection on two epidemiologically linked turkey breeder premises in the United Kingdom during December 2010 and January 2011. Clinically, the birds showed only mild signs of disease, with the major presenting sign being an acute and marked reduction in egg production, leading to the prompt reporting of suspected avian notifiable disease for official investigation. Presence of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in the United Kingdom turkey breeder flocks was confirmed by detailed laboratory investigations including virus isolation in embryonated specific pathogen-free fowls' eggs, two validated real-time reverse transcription-PCR tests, and nucleotide sequencing of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes. These investigations revealed high nucleotide identity with currently circulating human A(H1N1)pdm09 strains, suggesting that human-to-poultry transmission (reverse zoonosis) was the most likely route of infection. Peak levels of human influenza-like illness community transmission also coincided with the onset of clinical signs in both affected turkey breeder flocks. This case demonstrated the value of the existing passive surveillance framework and associated veterinary and laboratory infrastructure that enables the detection and management of both exotic and new and emerging disease hazards and risks. The case also presents further evidence of the susceptibility of turkeys to infection with influenza A viruses of nonavian origin.

To estimate the global burden of nontyphoidal Salmonella gastroenteritis, we synthesized existing data from laboratory-based surveillance and special studies, with a hierarchical preference to (1) prospective population-based studies, (2) dquo;multiplier studies, dquo; (3) disease notifications, (4) returning traveler data, and (5) extrapolation. We applied incidence estimates to population projections for the 21 Global Burden of Disease regions to calculate regional numbers of cases, which were summed to provide a global number of cases. Uncertainty calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulation. We estimated that 93.8 million cases (5th to 95th percentile, 61.8–131.6 million) of gastroenteritis due to Salmonella species occur globally each year, with 155,000 deaths (5th to 95th percentile, 39,000–303,000 deaths). Of these, we estimated 80.3 million cases were foodborne. Salmonella infection represents a considerable burden in both developing and developed countries. Efforts to reduce transmission of salmonellae by food and other routes must be implemented on a global scale.

Before vaccination, pertussis was a universal disease of early childhood. Although apparent control of the disease in the United States and other countries was achieved through vaccination, pertussis is resurgent. Though acellular vaccines have been in use for 20 years, new data are emerging on their effectiveness and durability of protection and the contribution of these characteristics to the resurgence of pertussis.

When a disease breaks out in a human population, changes in behavior in response to the outbreak can alter the progression of the infectious agent. In particular, people aware of a disease in their proximity can take measures to reduce their susceptibility. Even if no centralized information is provided about the presence of a disease, such awareness can arise through first-hand observation and word of mouth. To understand the effects this can have on the spread of a disease, we formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the spread of awareness in a host population, and then link this to an epidemiological model by having more informed hosts reduce their susceptibility. We find that, in a well-mixed population, this can result in a lower size of the outbreak, but does not affect the epidemic threshold. If, however, the behavioral response is treated as a local effect arising in the proximity of an outbreak, it can completely stop a disease from spreading, although only if the infection rate is below a threshold. We show that the impact of locally spreading awareness is amplified if the social network of potential infection events and the network over which individuals communicate overlap, especially so if the networks have a high level of clustering. These findings suggest that care needs to be taken both in the interpretation of disease parameters, as well as in the prediction of the fate of future outbreaks.

Many infectious diseases exhibit repetitive or regular behaviour over time. Time-domain approaches, such as the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, are often utilized to examine the cyclical behaviour of such diseases. The limitations for time-domain approaches include over-differencing and over-fitting; furthermore, the use of these approaches is inappropriate when the assumption of linearity may not hold. In this study, we implemented a simple and efficient procedure based on the fast Fourier transformation (FFT) approach to evaluate the epidemic dynamic of scarlet fever incidence (2004–2010) in China. This method demonstrated good internal and external validities and overcame some shortcomings of time-domain approaches. The procedure also elucidated the cycling behaviour in terms of environmental factors. We concluded that, under appropriate circumstances of data structure, spectral analysis based on the FFT approach may be applicable for the study of oscillating diseases.

Background. Gonorrhea (GC) and chlamydia (CT) are the most commonly reported notifiable diseases in the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that men who have sex with men (MSM) be screened for urogenital GC/CT, rectal GC/CT, and pharyngeal GC. We describe extragenital GC/CT testing and infections among MSM attending sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics. Methods. The STD Surveillance Network collects patient data from 42 STD clinics. We assessed the proportion of MSM attending these clinics during July 2011–June 2012 who were tested and positive for extragenital GC/CT at their most recent visit or in the preceding 12 months and the number of extragenital infections that would have remained undetected with urethral screening alone. Results. Of 21 994 MSM, 83.9% were tested for urogenital GC, 65.9% for pharyngeal GC, 50.4% for rectal GC, 81.4% for urogenital CT, 31.7% for pharyngeal CT, and 45.9% for rectal CT. Of MSM tested, 11.1% tested positive for urogenital GC, 7.9% for pharyngeal GC, 10.2% for rectal GC, 8.4% for urogenital CT, 2.9% for pharyngeal CT, and 14.1% for rectal CT. More than 70% of extragenital GC infections and 85% of extragenital CT infections were associated with negative urethral tests at the same visit and would not have been detected with urethral screening alone. Conclusions. Extragenital GC/CT was common among MSM attending STD clinics, but many MSM were not tested. Most extragenital infections would not have been identified, and likely would have remained untreated, with urethral screening alone. Efforts are needed to facilitate implementation of extragenital GC/CT screening recommendations for MSM.

Climate change, globalization, and other drivers have made Europe a “hot spot” for emerging infectious diseases, which calls for changes in monitoring systems. In recent years, we have seen transmission of traditionally “tropical” diseases in continental Europe: chikungunya fever (CF) in Italy in 2007, large outbreaks of West Nile fever in Greece and Romania in 2010, and the first local transmission of dengue fever in France and Croatia in 2010 ( 1 – 3 ). These events support the notion that Europe is a potential “hot spot” for emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) ( 4 ). Major EID drivers that could threaten control efforts in Europe include globalization and environmental change (including climate change, travel, migration, and global trade); social and demographic drivers (including population aging, social inequality, and life-styles); and public health system drivers (including antimicrobial resistance, health care capacity, animal health, and food safety) ( 5 , 6 ). Climate change is expected to aggravate existing local vulnerabilities by interacting with a complex web of these drivers ( 6 ). For example, increases in global trade and travel, in combination with climate change, are foreseen to facilitate the arrival, establishment, and dispersal of new pathogens, disease vectors, and reservoir species.