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This review paper summarizes current knowledge available for aviation operations related to meteorology and provides suggestions for necessary improvements in the measurement and prediction of weather-related parameters, new physical methods for numerical weather predictions (NWP), and next-generation integrated systems. Severe weather can disrupt aviation operations on the ground or in-flight. The most important parameters related to aviation meteorology are wind and turbulence, fog visibility, aerosol/ash loading, ceiling, rain and snow amount and rates, icing, ice microphysical parameters, convection and precipitation intensity, microbursts, hail, and lightning. Measurements of these parameters are functions of sensor response times and measurement thresholds in extreme weather conditions. In addition to these, airport environments can also play an important role leading to intensification of extreme weather conditions or high impact weather events, e.g., anthropogenic ice fog. To observe meteorological parameters, new remote sensing platforms, namely wind LIDAR, sodars, radars, and geostationary satellites, and in situ instruments at the surface and in the atmosphere, as well as aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles mounted sensors, are becoming more common. At smaller time and space scales (e.g., < 1 km), meteorological forecasts from NWP models need to be continuously improved for accurate physical parameterizations. Aviation weather forecasts also need to be developed to provide detailed information that represents both deterministic and statistical approaches. In this review, we present available resources and issues for aviation meteorology and evaluate them for required improvements related to measurements, nowcasting, forecasting, and climate change, and emphasize future challenges.

Extreme precipitation is a considerable contributor to meteorological disasters and there is a great need to mitigate its socioeconomic effects through skilful nowcasting that has high resolution, long lead times and local details 1 – 3 . Current methods are subject to blur, dissipation, intensity or location errors, with physics-based numerical methods struggling to capture pivotal chaotic dynamics such as convective initiation 4 and data-driven learning methods failing to obey intrinsic physical laws such as advective conservation 5 . We present NowcastNet, a nonlinear nowcasting model for extreme precipitation that unifies physical-evolution schemes and conditional-learning methods into a neural-network framework with end-to-end forecast error optimization. On the basis of radar observations from the USA and China, our model produces physically plausible precipitation nowcasts with sharp multiscale patterns over regions of 2,048 km × 2,048 km and with lead times of up to 3 h. In a systematic evaluation by 62 professional meteorologists from across China, our model ranks first in 71% of cases against the leading methods. NowcastNet provides skilful forecasts at light-to-heavy rain rates, particularly for extreme-precipitation events accompanied by advective or convective processes that were previously considered intractable.  A new nowcasting model unifies physical-evolution schemes and deep-learning methods to accurately predict precipitation with lead times of up to 3 h, including extreme-precipitation events and weather systems that were previously considered intractable with physics-based numerical methods.

Precipitation nowcasting, the high-resolution forecasting of precipitation up to two hours ahead, supports the real-world socioeconomic needs of many sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision-making 1 , 2 . State-of-the-art operational nowcasting methods typically advect precipitation fields with radar-based wind estimates, and struggle to capture important non-linear events such as convective initiations 3 , 4 . Recently introduced deep learning methods use radar to directly predict future rain rates, free of physical constraints 5 , 6 . While they accurately predict low-intensity rainfall, their operational utility is limited because their lack of constraints produces blurry nowcasts at longer lead times, yielding poor performance on rarer medium-to-heavy rain events. Here we present a deep generative model for the probabilistic nowcasting of precipitation from radar that addresses these challenges. Using statistical, economic and cognitive measures, we show that our method provides improved forecast quality, forecast consistency and forecast value. Our model produces realistic and spatiotemporally consistent predictions over regions up to 1,536 km × 1,280 km and with lead times from 5–90 min ahead. Using a systematic evaluation by more than 50 expert meteorologists, we show that our generative model ranked first for its accuracy and usefulness in 89% of cases against two competitive methods. When verified quantitatively, these nowcasts are skillful without resorting to blurring. We show that generative nowcasting can provide probabilistic predictions that improve forecast value and support operational utility, and at resolutions and lead times where alternative methods struggle. A deep generative model using radar observations is used to create skilful precipitation predictions that are accurate and support real-world utility.

Energy nowcasting is a valuable asset in managing energy loads and having real-time information on solar irradiation availability. In this study, we evaluate the spectrally integrated outputs of the SENSE system for solar irradiance nowcasting for the period of the ASPIRE (atmospheric parameters affecting spectral solar irradiance and solar energy) campaign (December 2020–December 2021) held in Athens, Greece. For the needs of the campaign, several ground-based instruments were operating, including two pyranometers, a pyrheliometer, a cloud camera, a CIMEL sunphotometer, and a precision spectral radiometer (PSR). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) estimations were more accurate than direct normal irradiance (DNI). SENSE estimations are provided every 15 min, but when comparing bigger time intervals (hours-days), the statistics improved. A dedicated assessment of the SENSE’s inputs is performed in respect to ground-based retrievals, considering cloud conditions (from a sky imager), AOD, and precipitable water vapor from AERONET. The factor that established the larger errors was the visibility of the solar disc, which cannot be defined by the available sources of model inputs. Additionally, there were discrepancies between the satellite estimation of the clouds and the ground picture, which caused deviations in results. AOD differences affected more the DNI.

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is one of the most challenging tasks in atmospheric sciences. The current methods of nowcasting primarily rely on inferring precipitation from radar reflectivity, which inevitably leads to uncertainties in forecasts due to the limitations of single radar data in capturing the detailed initial conditions of complex weather systems. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) can provide accurate water vapor information of high temporal resolution. In this study, a generative network (GRENet) is designed to integrate GNSS water vapor information with radar observations to improve precipitation nowcasting. A case study on a heavy rainfall event demonstrates that GRENet can predict the range and location of the precipitation center more accurately than a baseline model employing only radar observations. This results in improved performance on critical success index and fractions skill score, indicating that detailed initial water vapor from GNSS contributes significantly to enhancing precipitation nowcasting skill.

Traditionally, the nowcasting of precipitation was conducted to a large extent by means of extrapolation of observations, especially of radar ref lectivity. In recent years, the blending of traditional extrapolation-based techniques with high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) is gaining popularity in the nowcasting community. The increased need of NWP products in nowcasting applications poses great challenges to the NWP community because the nowcasting application of high-resolution NWP has higher requirements on the quality and content of the initial conditions compared to longer-range NWP. Considerable progress has been made in the use of NWP for nowcasting thanks to the increase in computational resources, advancement of high-resolution data assimilation techniques, and improvement of convective-permitting numerical modeling. This paper summarizes the recent progress and discusses some of the challenges for future advancement.

Hong Kong Observatory has been operating an in-house developed rainfall nowcasting system called “Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)” to support rainstorm warning and rainfall nowcasting services. A crucial step in rainfall nowcasting is the tracking of radar echoes to generate motion fields for extrapolation of rainfall areas in the following few hours. SWIRLS adopted a correlation-based method in its first operational version in 1999, which was subsequently replaced by optical flow algorithm in 2010 and further enhanced in 2013. The latest optical flow algorithm employs a transformation function to enhance a selected range of reflectivity for feature tracking. It also adopts variational optical flow computation that takes advantage of the Horn–Schunck approach and the Lucas–Kanade method. This paper details the three radar echo tracking algorithms, examines their performances in several significant rainstorm cases and summaries verification results of multi-year performances. The limitations of the current approach are discussed. Developments underway along with future research areas are also presented.

Within the next couple of years, the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) will start the deployment of its next-generation geostationary meteorological satellites. The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) is composed of four imaging (MTG-I) and two sounding (MTG-S) platforms. The satellites are three-axis stabilized, unlike the two previous generations of Meteosat that were spin stabilized, and carry two sets of remote sensing instruments each. Hence, in addition to providing continuity, the new system will provide an unprecedented capability from geostationary orbit. The payload on the MTG-I satellites are the 16-channel Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and the Lightning Imager (LI). The payloads on the MTG-S satellites are the hyperspectral Infrared Sounder (IRS) and a high-resolution Ultraviolet–Visible–Near-Infrared (UVN) sounder Sentinel-4/UVN, provided by the European Commission. Today, hyperspectral sounding from geostationary orbit is provided by the Chinese Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) satellite Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder (GIIRS) instrument, and lightning mappers are available on FY-4A and on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) GOES-16 and GOES-17 satellites. Consequently, the development of science and applications for these types of instruments have a solid foundation. However, the IRS, LI, and Sentinel-4/UVN are a challenging first for Europe in a geostationary orbit. The four MTG-I and two MTG-S satellites are designed to provide 20 and 15.5 years of operational service, respectively. The launch of the first MTG-I is expected at the end of 2022 and the first MTG-S roughly a year later. This article describes the four instruments, outlines products and services, and addresses the evolution of the further applications.

Radar echo extrapolation is a commonly used approach for convective nowcasting. The evolution of convective systems over a very short term can be foreseen according to the extrapolated reflectivity images. Recently, deep neural networks have been widely applied to radar echo extrapolation and have achieved better forecasting performance than traditional approaches. However, it is difficult for existing methods to combine predictive flexibility with the ability to capture temporal dependencies at the same time. To leverage the advantages of the previous networks while avoiding the mentioned limitations, a 3D-UNet-LSTM model, which has an extractor-forecaster architecture, is proposed in this paper. The extractor adopts 3D-UNet to extract comprehensive spatiotemporal features from the input radar images. In the forecaster, a newly designed Seq2Seq network exploits the extracted features and uses different convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) layers to iteratively generate hidden states for different future timestamps. Finally, the hidden states are transformed into predicted radar images through a convolutional layer. We conduct 0–1 h convective nowcasting experiments on the public MeteoNet dataset. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the 3D-UNet extractor, the newly designed forecaster, and their combination. In addition, case studies qualitatively demonstrate that the proposed model has a better spatiotemporal modeling ability for the complex nonlinear processes of convective echoes.

In recent years traditional numerical methods for accurate weather prediction have been increasingly challenged by deep learning methods. Numerous historical datasets used for short and medium-range weather forecasts are typically organized into a regular spatial grid structure. This arrangement closely resembles images: each weather variable can be visualized as a map or, when considering the temporal axis, as a video. Several classes of generative models, comprising Generative Adversarial Networks, Variational Autoencoders, or the recent Denoising Diffusion Models have largely proved their applicability to the next-frame prediction problem, and is thus natural to test their performance on the weather prediction benchmarks. Diffusion models are particularly appealing in this context, due to the intrinsically probabilistic nature of weather forecasting: what we are really interested to model is the probability distribution of weather indicators, whose expected value is the most likely prediction. In our study, we focus on a specific subset of the ERA-5 dataset, which includes hourly data pertaining to Central Europe from the years 2016 to 2021. Within this context, we examine the efficacy of diffusion models in handling the task of precipitation nowcasting, with a lead time of 1 to 3 hours. Our work is conducted in comparison to the performance of well-established U-Net models, as documented in the existing literature. An additional comparative analysis has been done with the forecasting capabilities of the CERRA system, part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The novelty of our approach, Generative Ensemble Diffusion (GED), lies in its innovative use of a diffusion model to generate a diverse set of possible weather scenarios. These scenarios are then amalgamated into a single prediction in a post-processing phase. This approach mimics the usual weather forecasting technique consisting in running an ensemble of numerical simulations under slightly different initial conditions by exploiting instead the intrinsic stochasticity of the generative model. In comparison to recent deep learning models addressing the same problem, our approach results in approximately a 25% reduction in the mean squared error. Reverse diffusion is a core concept in our GED approach, is particularly relevant to weather forecasting. In the context of diffusion models, reverse diffusion refers to the process of iteratively refining a noisy initial prediction into a coherent and realistic forecast. By leveraging reverse diffusion, our model effectively simulates the complex temporal dynamics of weather systems, mirroring the inherent uncertainty and variability in weather patterns.